For anyone who wants to keep winning

The key is to identify the main fresh liquidity, study its characters and appetite, and what they can access.

In this ever-changing market, narrative shift fast, one thing always stay the same . Every bull starts with fresh wave of liquidity entering attracted by Bitcoin. Each time , quite bit of those newcomers share the same mindset :

“ Bitcoin is too expensive”
“ I am years late”
…

And this mindset inevitably pushes them to find the next Bitcoin, so the key is to find the Bitcoin betas for the main group of this fresh liquidity comes in.

Each cycle brings a mix of newcomers, but only the main group matters . As they are the ones that moves the makers, set trends , and carried narrative . Rest is just noises

look back, you will see it more clearly.

Before 2016
Main liquidity are cr anarchist,ideological purists ,nerds... keen on liberalism, censorship resistance …

Main narratives were :
- Bitcoin forks & “better Bitcoin” coins
- privacy coins
- mining-centric coins
- tech & ideology driven coins

After 2016
A new wave of Chinese web2 people, tech oriented builder, and retail with fewer western VC and global retail. The main group are more familiar with web2 Internet platform , product..
So naturally
- Etherum getting stronger
- More smart contract chain emerged
- Blockchain beyond money , everyone either build or ape into better version’ of every Web2 products
- ICOs booming

After ICO bust
China Banned, west take the lead. More western VCs, builders , retails .And the narratives this cycle again, matched perfectly with this new waves of character

- DeFi, and everything around it. Appealing to those western big & small “smart money” who’s familiar with financial engineering and market .
- NFT : as global retails and social media native normies flood led in, focus shifted to digital culture, collectible ect

2024 and beyond
Unlike the previous cycle more of retail driven.This time are institutions.

They mentality no different that retails , some of them also will chasing for their own Bitcoin Betas . But actions limited by :
- strict regulation
- compliance and audit framework
- custody requirement ect

They can only allocate where permitted, so liquidity flows to Bitcoin ETFs over spot.

And the potential Bitcoin Betas they access to are :
- altcoin ETF (❌ weak inflow, eg ETH)
- listed crypto companies (❌ weak )
- Bitcoin Strategy Stocks (✅ up higher when Bitcoin up. )

The market has already shown you the answer .

We’ve all seen $MSTR performing strongly and becomes the benchmark for it, and the best-performing stocks globally is a pure Bitcoin strategy stock : Metaplanet (up 2,605%)

Winners in the market don’t argue with the market. Be a good boy , just follow the direction it’s pointing you toward.

And this mainly break into :

1. U.S market :
It’s the most liquid and visible market,more and more companies joins in. Look for teams that are credible, vocal, and truly committed. The more visible they are and the more cash they hold to buy Bitcoin the better.

2. Regional market
come with higher risk,but also higher upside and unique advantages.
- local capital
- fewer competition
- able to leverage regional financial instruments to accelerate their Bitcoin accumulation

Key: find the PURE Bitcoin strategy with vocal, committed team.

eg: Metaplanet , started while other bigger companies in Japan already held more Bitcoin.

But as the PURE Bitcoin strategy with vocal, committed team:
- It stock tracks BTC more closely and outperforms peers
- Strong performance more capital fueling more BTC buys

Leads :
- MC increases from $15m to $1.5 billion while early movers stayed flat
- Best performed stock global in 2024
- Quickly surpassed early movers in Bitcoin holding.

The stronger the convocation, the stronger the flywheel. History repeats with 1723.HK the first and only pure Bitcoin strategy stock in China Full disclosure I holds positions in all stocks mentioned above.

In short: each wave of new liquidity looks for its own Bitcoin beta—just like every cycle before. They look forward, not back, with preferences that differ from the last. Wrapping dinosaur shitcoins in an ETF won’t change that.

Those who understand this and act on it are winning big. eg, UTXO liquid fund , a $100M fund, in 2024 outperformed Bitcoin by 100%, with AUM only partially deployed.

x.com/davidfbailey/s…

Look .. lmao You 3ac boys is raising 25m

In 3d life,I am very fond of gemstones, and lately I had discussion with a fren about how to invest in it, and realised there’s a lot in common between Gemstones and NFTs. So gemstone is what’s called hard asset, it’s portable asset, but first and foremost is personal adornment. It’s a rare personal adornment that people will wear as jewelries, as opposed to investing it. And most people who buy gemstones are not going to make money on them.

For clarify few things up
A thread

1/6 There’s an guy who named Wang has pretended to be a team member of a DeFi derivative project,and he resold and oversold his allocation to some retail investors at a higher rate. And the token price up 60x+ at 1st token release. 2/6 He wanted to keep the profit to himself, so refunded most of the principal back to those retail investors. They are pretty upset because they transferred the principals to him back in late 2019 , which means they’ve missed the whole bullrun .

大概说之下我们@Magicventures1 今年的一些投资逻辑吧. 太远的记不太清了，就从今年夏天的NFT season 开始吧，其实我们当时也是挺焦虑的，但是在很快就冷静了下来,因为这流动性太差了，买入后出手需要很久的时间，还有就是生命周期也挺短的，所以非常不适合我们这种没有耐心，又不能24小时盯着市场的人 所以当时就转换下了思路，投NFT 的一些基础设施: 1.平台代币，但是opensea 还没发币,2. NFT 指数 看了几个指数感觉不合适，3. 剩下的就是储存layer 了. 所以我们当时重仓了AR, 平均价格$6.43, 主要是有几个原因: 1.提供永久储存,2, 市值占比在整个储存赛道很低, 3，当时聊了几个NFT 发行方都是用的AR

there's a mad mad story about how the most notorious crypto mining mafia colluded with gov official in jiangxi, screwed Genisis Mining, led to central gov in china cracking down on crypto mining, and caused the big dump in May 19th. Before I begin , just want to clarify I am not 100% sure it’s true, but the press and news and info mention in the story can be verified, and I post the original link at the end of this thread.

Our investment thesis about Arweave,the most feasible solution to make decentralised data storage gain wider adoption. Now it’s market share and cap still very small, but it will overtake filecoin’s dominance. Big thanks to @jeremyongws helped editing .
egirlcapital.com/portfolio/Arwe… 2) Why we need decentralised data storage? Public chain like Ethereum ain’t design for data storage,the cost to same size of data on it is million times higher than web2 clouding computing & storage service. So normally only BLL and DAL data will stored on the etherum.

We gonna witness a history in bitcoin mining tonight, all mining farms (about 8m kw electricity load) will shutdown at 12pm Beijing time tonight, Harare rate already dropped significantly after sichuan gov announce shut down bitcoins mining farms in Sichuan. Some mining farms already starting shutdown their facilities.

Curve @CurveFinance needs more appreciation and #crv is heavily undervalue.

1.the veCrv competition between @iearnfinance @ConvexFinance and @StakeDAOHQ , they all wants boost up their earnings and increase their APY by purchase and lock more #Crv. 2.Curve’s multi-chain plan
Polygon has bought 1billon TVL and 50M daily transactions volume for curve. if curve deploy on more chains and L2 it will brings more TVL, transaction volume and fees for Curve.