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https://twitter.com/DiMartinoBooth/status/1347152269192658945?s=20I turned neutral duration lately and thus missed this last 10bps or so up in rates. Overall been underweight long-ends since late 3q20 for those that have tracked my work on places like @macrohive and @Quillintel but now this is getting way more serious for the US markets. 2/4
https://twitter.com/bondstrategist/status/1361654612307116032Survey review: First, thank you for those that participated, got a decent response so I believe the results are credible. With l/t rates on their back-foot and under a ton of pressure lately, the (A) to Q1 is troubling. The majority think the Fed will limit the rise in rates. 2/7
https://twitter.com/GeorgeGammon/status/1361509657257254915Fed dilemma: They're maintain flexibility, hoping the rebound is sustainable & leads to inflation post CV19. The chance of that are higher now given fiscal support. But it will come at a cost by mid-year, unless they up the pace, Fed will be buying less USTs than new supply. 2/5
https://twitter.com/bondstrategist/status/1302563750415945730Obviously this was a small set of potential paths (and as discussed we might get a hybrid of these or new outcomes given that we cant predict the future). That said, although I usually sound like that we're destined to repeat the Japan exp, I'm more and more in the GFC2 camp. 2/7
https://twitter.com/bondstrategist/status/1189521159857029120DEFCON Update2: Given the need (for fiscal policy) there has to be a well functioning UST market, and so the Fed has stated their mission is to buy USTs at will. But they will need to go beyond just a clean-up operation and allowing leverage to unwind. They need yield caps ASAP.