👇Check out Monetary Matters - Fed's 2025 Playbook...

Jack Farley @JackFarley96 🎙️ is one of the best in the FinMedia World, so it was great to be invited on, esp. to compare notes with another market legend @fedguy12!
Joseph and I are not that far off from each other in terms of how to think about the Fed's reaction function to macro and fiscal factors. We only differ on the Dec cut (watch the show).
And we went through some of my favorite chart ideas too...

Take a listen via podcasts or watch Youtube for charts... Still fighting the notion that rates "do not matter" or that "it's different this time." Some areas of the US economy (small business, low-to-middle income households, real estate/CRE etc) have felt the full brunt of this higher rate environment.

🧐Fed SLR, A Slip into Twist?

So I got it wrong, the Fed decided not to extend the SLR for at least 6 months (as I originally expected).

However they still can make changes as they bought optionality with the attached paragraph (which allows them to revisit this) 1/4 Why would they go down this path? One, its a real-time experiment (they get to see how this change will impact banks or not). Two, they have the bigger RRP mops now and can raise that rate and IOR to help pull up short-term rates (which are in/out of negative levels lately). 2/4

📈10yr UST: Flagging Levels That I'm Watching

Updated a chart featured in the Quill Outlook.

There are many forms of technical analysis, I like to combine mean-reversion, tech-signals and unique quant data metrics to triangulate what may be next... 1/4

https://twitter.com/DiMartinoBooth/status/1347152269192658945?s=20

I turned neutral duration lately and thus missed this last 10bps or so up in rates. Overall been underweight long-ends since late 3q20 for those that have tracked my work on places like @macrohive and @Quillintel but now this is getting way more serious for the US markets. 2/4

🇺🇸Rates Survey Says...

Answers (A to Qs) in order they were asked.

1A: Rates rise limited by Fed
2A: Rates rise=debt issues
3A: Low rates=buy stocks
4A: Rates rise is a good sign
5A: Overall commodities
6A: Its all about narratives!
7A: All of the above

My assessments... 1/7

https://twitter.com/bondstrategist/status/1361654612307116032

Survey review: First, thank you for those that participated, got a decent response so I believe the results are credible. With l/t rates on their back-foot and under a ton of pressure lately, the (A) to Q1 is troubling. The majority think the Fed will limit the rise in rates. 2/7

📈Rates Multi-Part Flash Survey📉

First question: Big picture, what are your views on rates? Main risk from higher rates?

👇What are gov't bonds telling us?

Thx @GeorgeGammon for having me on, it was fun!

We cover a lot of ground on the Fed, supply, inflation, curves and where 10s may be heading. So check out the video.

BONUS: below are quick explanations to some of the charts and new ones. 1/5

https://twitter.com/GeorgeGammon/status/1361509657257254915

Fed dilemma: They're maintain flexibility, hoping the rebound is sustainable & leads to inflation post CV19. The chance of that are higher now given fiscal support. But it will come at a cost by mid-year, unless they up the pace, Fed will be buying less USTs than new supply. 2/5

📝Biz/mkt cycle poll results: Thx again if you participated, we had a decent amount of folks take part. The majority think the US (and probably developed world by extension) is turning Japan-like followed by the latest period is part2 of GFC driven by social/political forces. 1/7

https://twitter.com/bondstrategist/status/1302563750415945730

Obviously this was a small set of potential paths (and as discussed we might get a hybrid of these or new outcomes given that we cant predict the future). That said, although I usually sound like that we're destined to repeat the Japan exp, I'm more and more in the GFC2 camp. 2/7

Late Night Ed: Powell's Message to DC, UBI pls?

1.) Its a PR Campaign: The CBS 60 min Powell brought out the more caring side of Fed vs the PIIE discussion was more tough love.

2.) What's his goal? Shift the focus to fiscal side, but why?

Liquidity vs Solvency dilemma... 1/5 Fed can keep buying up all the Treasuries that the government produces to finance all spending, esp. on providing COVID relief. Although the Fed does not tell the government how to spend its money, the focus on solvency in 60 min interview could be Fed's plea for MMT/UBI now. 2/5

CASH STRAPPED WORLD! The one thing we have learned from the sudden stop impact on the economy is the lack of cash in the system. Clearly the Fed is printing up more, but if all that goes back to prop up financial assets, it won't resolve the cashflow issues that will be ongoing. Meanwhile everyday Americans are seeing fractions of what is earmark to companies/markets. Furthermore there needs to be a faster way (not just one loan at a time) to get all this stimulus into the hands that need it. Or at some point you need to monetize assets for consumption.

DEFCON Update1: Clearly there is hope that the recent actions start working to calm markets, but now that the Fed has used up nearly all of its 2008 playbook, what do you do as an encore (esp when even govt bonds are under pressure)? You take a page out of Japan’s playbook, YCC!

https://twitter.com/bondstrategist/status/1189521159857029120

DEFCON Update2: Given the need (for fiscal policy) there has to be a well functioning UST market, and so the Fed has stated their mission is to buy USTs at will. But they will need to go beyond just a clean-up operation and allowing leverage to unwind. They need yield caps ASAP.

🇺🇸FED EASING "INFOMERCIAL-STYLE": I have spent many nights these past weeks brainstorming what could they do next. There's a lot to cover (I will in this thread) but after today's Fed easing action its starting to feel like an informercial clip "but wait there is more"... RATES: They cut the target Fed Funds (FF) rates a 100bp to 0-.25%, one needs to go back to the 1970-80s to see such moves (and back then rates were high vs now near zero). DW rate was also cut to 0.25%, collapsing the spread to FF. Recall that was my view: tinyurl.com/waq8xnr

1/ A QUICK REVIEW OF THE BOND MARKETS: Last few sessions have seen major markets contend with their own set of unique issues but it seems all assets are dealing with illiquidity & correlation breakdowns (within asset classes and on a cross-market basis) what’s going on? @RaoulGMI 2/ US TREASURIES – THE LAST LINE OF DEFENSE PT-1: Treasuries are key to the foundation of the banking system (and globally via USD), when the biggest bond market in the world is not behaving as normal, it sends shockwaves rippling thru itself and other assets. @vol_christopher

A LONG THREAD ON WHERE IS THE FED? Many investors are expecting Fed (coordinated or not) to do something soon (perhaps before futures open). There has been a lot of debate that CB easing can't resolve health issues, but they can help sentiment. Here's what may happen next.

1/11 Backdrop1: Long gone is the façade the Fed will ignore 👇financial conditions (regardless of driver). Its not much, but the Fed has some flexibility on rate policy side but more importantly can come up w/some creative solutions in its use of the powers granted under 13(3).

2/11