1. As the third and final electoral verdict on Donald Trump - and a potential generational shift to Kamala Harris - this election will do much to determine the future of US foreign policy and how the world looks at us. 2. We may be talking about Trump wearing garbage vests and performing sex acts on his microphone, but keep in mind: there are are huge wars happening in Europe and the Middle East and conflict brewing with China. The world is more dangerous and volatile than it was in 2016.

There is no logic that isn't damning as to why the Washington Post and LA Times feel they can endorse in every local, state and federal election other than a presidential race. It's not that these endorsements tip the balance in an election; it's that self-censoring because you are afraid of retribution from an authoritarian tells you everything you need to know about the priorities of management.

Bibi speech described a reality that doesn't exist. Lying about cutting off access to food. Lying about civilian casualties. Avoiding responsibility for 10/7 security failure and diplomatic failure to bring hostages home. Seeking applause for unachievable military objectives. Just imagine what this speech looks like to the rest of the world - a leader who could never even get this kind of reception in Israel given a platform to gaslight in Congress.

During my 20 years in politics, two destructive trends stand out: the steady radicalization of the Republican Party and the trivialization of politics, particularly the way it is covered by US media and how politicians respond to that dynamic. The Republican debate stands out for how unsurprising it was that a stage full of people acted like a bunch of kids trying to get admitted to some fascist costume party. Kill people at the border! Prohibit women from any agency over their bodies! Side with Putin! Etc. Etc.

Keep in mind there's no political party or ideological project like Communism propping up the Russian kleptocracy. It's not the CCP or USSR. It's just Putin killing anyone who crosses him and wrapping it in nationalism.

https://twitter.com/maxseddon/status/1694396008321482950

For a while there was plenty of money and the illusion of individual, oligarchic power to go around. But now Putin has catastrophically miscalculated in Ukraine, the money and perks are harder to come by, and more people are getting killed

AIPAC wants unconditional support for: "a finance minister who has described himself as a proud homophobe, a security minister who was convicted of racist incitement, and an ultra-Orthodox party that proposed fining women for reading the Torah" nytimes.com/2023/07/24/wor… Democrats need to decide whether democratic values are things that they only talk about when it's easy. Is this a government that should continue to get a blank check coupled with platitudes about democracy?

One elephant in the room here given how murky this has always been is whether the Trump Administration used "Havana syndrome" to rollback the opening to Cuba knowing that there wasn't evidence of the Cuban government being responsible.

https://twitter.com/John_Hudson/status/1630968908382621696

In any event, the U.S. clinging to the last vestiges of a failed hardline Cuba policy which has fueled a humanitarian and migration crisis, done nothing to advance human rights, while alienating us in Latin America and the global south looks even more nonsensical today.

It's pretty depressing when "free speech" is about really rich powerful guys wanting to say whatever the fuck they please and not about people saying whatever the fuck they want about people in power. Nevermind US politics. Let's see what the "free speech" avatars in Silicon Valley have to say about MBS or Xi or Modi or MBZ.

The Hawley video is fun to laugh at (and we should!). But it is important because it speaks to a mindset within the entire Republican Party: it's ok to burn it all down so long as we survive.

https://twitter.com/dprzygoda/status/1550287028029476866

It's true as a matter of public safety, as they've demagogued everything from life-saving vaccines to gun safety measures to fill their rallies with conspiracy theorists and their campaign coffers with checks.

The current SCOTUS majority has an extreme degree of illegitimacy when you consider how it came to be. Bush v Gore itself elevated George W. Bush to the presidency after he lost the popular vote and with Florida still contested. That in turn led to the appointments of Roberts and Alito.

Trillions of dollars on a multi-decade global war on terror that spread authoritarianism and collapsed American standing so we could prevent hypothetical attacks. No action to save the lives of our children because some Americans want weapons of war. This country is sick. Americans take their shoes off at airports like sheep bc some guy tried to light his shoes on fire 20 years ago but won't even require background checks to buy a semi-automatic weapon.

1. The paperback of my book on the rise of authoritarianism, After the Fall, is out. It's the backstory of a world unravelling, extraordinary people fighting back, and my personal journey through the rough currents of politics and identity today. 2. After the Fall tells the story of Viktor Orban’s rise in Hungary, Vladimir Putin’s transformation of Russia into a belligerent kleptocracy, the emergence of China’s techno-totalitarian alternative model, and the unravelling of American democracy.

I’m sorry but no one who came of age with Bush v Gore (eg anyone under like 50) has ever seen the Supreme Court as “apolitical” Without Bush v Gore there’s no Iraq War and the US leads on climate. Spare me the bullshit about what an island of comity it is - it’s long been the epicenter of efforts to undermine US democracy

For a "strongman" every action that Putin has taken to persecute Navalny and his organization suggests that Putin is very afraid of Navalny.

https://twitter.com/Reevellp/status/1506259637217243141

Navalny understands how much corruption and lies can spark popular outrage because it’s what sparked his own outrage at Putin’s kleptocracy.

Hard to overstate how much Zelensky by standing up to a bully has shattered the global blend of fear, apathy, and even admiration ("chess master") that Putin relied upon.

https://twitter.com/maxseddon/status/1499435663405592587

When he appeared in the street to declare "We are all here" he was generationally familiar to younger people- communicating not from behind a podium or giant table, but literally from the street surrounded by people who were also unafraid.

We are just a few days into this war and new state of conflict between Russia and the West. One lesson: images of war in Ukraine have driven Western tolerance for risk way up. Tragically, the nature of those images will almost certainly get worse with risks for Putin and the West For Putin, the preference for largely concealing the war from Russians, shielding them from the worst economic consequences, and quickly installing a puppet government seems to have collapsed given depth of Ukrainian resolve.

The forceful response from global public opinion, democratic governments, and above all the Ukrainian people to Putin suggests that this *might* be the moment when the pendulum starts to swing back against the corruption, nationalism, and authoritarianism that infects our world Part of why Zelensky's leadership has been so electric is that here's a man who is in the gravest possible danger and he's not afraid - indeed, he seems to grow by the second into the role of standing up to this bully on behalf of principles democracies say they believe in

I’m for ending Nord Stream 2 given Putin’s actions, but Republicans are strangely obsessed with it. Here’s what will change in Ukraine from ending Nord Stream 2: nothing. There is a medium and long term interest in undermining Putin’s leverage and reducing European energy dependence on Russia. But Republicans act like Putin will come out with his hands up if Nord Stream 2 is cancelled

1. If a return to the Iran Deal is achieved, I think the DC debate that follows will be much less intense and prolonged than last time despite this kind of garbage. axios.com/house-gop-spoi… 2. Unlike 2015, there is no mandated congressional review period leading up to a vote on the deal - that 60 day period over a relatively slow news summer turbo charged the debate last time

1. The sad thing about Trump's endorsement of Orban is how unsurprising it is. In my book After the Fall, I start with the parallels between the GOP and Orban because we aren't headed for a Hungary model - we are almost there. This has been Orban's playbook: 2. It's worth remembering that this GOP playbook long predated Trump and really became the Party's defining project in the Obama years.

1. One thing Obama did is talk about progressive change as a validation of American history and not a repudiation of it. We are a great enough country to change and right wrongs because of the values that (imperfectly) defined our founding and that generations fought for 2. That approach allowed space for people to be proud of their American identity while seeing change as part of what makes us American - part of the work of being American