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Brian Carter Profile picture
Brian Carter
@brian_cartr
Middle East Portfolio Manager for @criticalthreats. I cover Islamist movements + irregular military in MENA | Bluesky @briancarter.bsky.social | Usual caveats.
Jun 22, 2025 • 6 tweets • 2 min read
ON THE STRIKES—What happened and what’s next?

The US struck three nuclear facilities last night with a total of 14 bunker-busting bombs (called MOPs) and 30 tomahawk missiles. There are six obvious entry points for the bombs at Fordow, where the US dropped 12 bombs. The other 2 bombs were dropped on Natanz, and the tomahawk missiles hit a third facility in Esfahan.

Gen. Caine, the US chairman of the joint chiefs, noted it is still too early to have a complete picture of the damage Iran sustained, but that it appears “significant.” Iran has taken some initial steps to begin its retaliation. CTP-ISW has not yet observed any attacks from Iran’s proxy and partner militias, but Iran has begun efforts to disrupt shipping around the Strait of Hormuz by interfering with GPS.
Jun 20, 2025 • 4 tweets • 1 min read
My latest contextualizes the silence of Iran's proxy network amid the Israeli strikes in the results of the Oct 7 War. The lack of serious response from the Axis of Resistance shows us how exhausted Iran's proxies & partners are after nearly 2 yrs of fighting the US and Israel. Image The defeat of Hamas, degradation of Hezbollah, collapse of Assad, and Israeli strikes in October 2024 that badly weakened Iranian air defense collectively unraveled Iran's proxy and partner network, as well as Tehran's primary deterrent against an Israeli strike.
Mar 12, 2025 • 5 tweets • 1 min read
The Houthis announced yesterday that they will resume attacks on maritime shipping. The US air campaign against the Houthis will not deter the group, as I've previously argued (link below). These attacks drive up the cost of goods due to increased shipping costs. Image The US could deter the Houthis if the air campaign imposed real, long-lasting costs on the group.