New: Trump is in the midst of a desperate play to turn out young male voters. Here's why I think it won't work for him in the short run OR the GOP in the long run. 🧵 First, speaking as a recently young man, we don't tend to have our shit together. Women turn out at higher rates than men and oldsters at higher rates than youth. Trump might ask Dems how much success they've had mobilizing the youth with policy pandering. offmessage.net/p/trump-pander…

Recent reporting suggests Biden world understands that his abysmal approval is rooted in a rotten info environment more than material reality. That’s the good news. The bad news is they’ve developed a defeatist mentality, instead of trying more things. offmessage.net/p/joe-biden-im… The short version is Biden turned the page on Trump too quickly, allowing Trump to revise the history of his presidency AND pin blame for everything post-Jan 20, 2021 on Biden. Three-plus years later, that’s not an easy problem to fix without time travel. offmessage.net/p/joe-biden-im…

New: Republicans hope to intimidate Democrats out of abandoning their advantages with aggressive posturing, but they’re really just leading with their chins. offmessage.net/p/republicans-… The bad news: this has clearly worked on some Dems (cf @PaulBegala). The good news is, once you spot the con, it’s easy to detect in later instances. h/t @joshtpm offmessage.net/p/republicans-…

1. @GregTSargent is obviously right that “A guilty verdict is powerful new information,” and that, “We should hold institutional Democrats responsible if they don’t use it, and use it ruthlessly and effectively.” newrepublic.com/article/182111… 2. But I think we’ve already reached that point.

New today: Business leaders cozying back up to Trump don’t just offer up laughable excuses. They also evince terrible critical thinking skills. The logic is there, it just reflects poor logical reasoning and reckless risk tolerance. offmessage.net/p/why-are-thes…


One thing people like Stephen Schwarzman might consider is: What would’ve happened if Trump’s coup attempt had been even just a bit more successful: No certification on Jan 6, a scramble to transfer power after January 20, more street violence. offmessage.net/p/why-are-thes…

As it happens, before Durbin’s most recent preemptive surrender this week, I wrote about specific ways he *could* use his power now. To wit: unearth Alito’s unlogged votes and unstated reasoning wherever the Court has done quiet favors for Trump. offmessage.net/p/expose-the-s… Biden, who has also been inert here, could do his part by lifting his embargo on exploiting Trump’s criminal exposure, making it easier for Senate Dems to hold Alito, Thomas, Cannon, et al accountable. offmessage.net/p/lacking-camp…

New: I don’t know how things will shake out early next year, but I think it was a mistake for Dems to agree to decouple certain domestic appropriations from defense (sorry, the “ladder approach”) as ransom to the GOP to avoid a Thanksgiving shutdown. offmessage.net/p/shoots-and-l… This all happened very fast, and because the Freedom Caucus is mad and Republicans are cosplaying Street Fighter, most of the coverage has taken it as a given that Mike Johnson caved. I’m not so sure. offmessage.net/p/shoots-and-l…

SOME PROFESSIONAL NEWS: Thursday was my last day at Crooked Media, today I launch a new, independent venture. It’s called Off Message and I hope you’ll join me by subscribing. offmessage.net/p/welcome-to-o… If you’ve followed my work in recent years, you know I’ve been consistently concerned that the liberal and Democratic Party tendency to hyper-caution is a bad fit for a zero-sum fight against authoritarianism. offmessage.net

NEWSLETTER! Free idea to all concerned: stop overthinking it and lock him up. mailchi.mp/crooked.com/bi… (I’m referring to Donald Trump.)

Our media in response to a basically good jobs report, my god… Ok, I went and looked. In March, 2019, BLS reported that the economy added 196,000 jobs. Here’s how the same media interpreted that finding for news consumers.

I think another way to look at the dynamic Greg describes here is that McCarthy, other GOP leaders, Fox, et al have trapped themselves. They could get together, smoke-filled room style, and solve their collective-action problem, but refuse to. washingtonpost.com/opinions/2023/… The Times, similarly, sees a story about Trump’s strength, but I see a mirror image story of GOP weakness.

Newsletter! (Yesterday’s.) I looked at the bafflement among It’s The Economy, Stupid liberals over why Joe Biden remains unpopular, despite a very strong economy. https://t.co/rCFqy2WxeKmailchi.mp/crooked.com/bi…
One possible explanation is, I think, pretty obvious… https://t.co/9XgiG6qbFWeepurl.com/gQH7lz

NEWSLETTER! The first federal Trump indictment comes just as a small but vocal and visible handful of Republicans get comfortable attacking him frontally 🍿. mailchi.mp/crooked.com/bi… Democrats have a role to play in the aftermath, exploiting GOP divisions, and reminding the public that even the good ones were willingly complicit in Trump's crimes for years. eepurl.com/gQH7lz

To this end, DeSantis, Haley, Youngkin, the House GOP leadership, and several prominent GOP senators have endorsed the crimes Trump committed, sight unseen.

https://twitter.com/theplumlinegs/status/1667192077094998019

Special shoutout to Youngkin whose appeal to “parents in Virginia,” on this issue is a Hall of Fame clunker, and we should never let him live it down.

https://twitter.com/GlennYoungkin/status/1667167258546692098

The failed 2005 social security privatization is a key antecedent here. The lesson it taught Mitch McConnell is that conservative spending goals could only be achieved in a crisis environment that forced Democrats to vote for them, thus providing political cover to the GOP...

https://twitter.com/mattyglesias/status/1663880873182220288

For a time (even before 2005) I think the hope was to cut taxes and grow deficits enough to create a “fiscal crisis” that would require major retrenchment. At that point the GOP could link arms and say “no tax hikes,” imagining Dems would eventually crack and cut entitlements.

NEWSLETTER! Ahead of Biden’s meeting with McCarthy et al next week, I wanted to look back at the last 12 (!) years of GOP default threats, and emphasize what a huge betrayal it’ll be if Biden budges from his refusal to negotiate. mailchi.mp/crooked.com/bi… Liberals were crestfallen when Dems didn’t unilaterally disarm the debt limit in the lame duck session last year, but Dems have been missing opportunities to end this cycle of GOP abuse since Trump became president. eepurl.com/gQH7lz

Except…Roberts can’t fire Thomas and won’t ask him to resign (because he doesn’t want him to). Passing the buck to him only makes sense if Senate Dems have exhausted their options, which they have not.

https://twitter.com/SenWhitehouse/status/1654114834928074755

Most DEMOCRATS haven’t called on Thomas to resign. Neither @SenatorDurbin nor @SenBlumenthal has subpoenaed him for testimony or documents…

Notable indication here that DC publications are prepared to refer to this corrupt committee with the deceptive, hysterical name Republicans gave it. If so, it’s a big propaganda coup for the GOP, but it’s important to note this is not standard practice.

https://twitter.com/evale72/status/1615692119871561729

Parties call their priorities what they want, but it’s pretty common for mainstream news to go out of its way not to unthinkingly embrace those terms. That’s why journalists often referred to “build back better” as “the Democrats’ social spending bill,” or similar.

Newsletter! Most efforts to make sense of the rebellion in the House miss the corruption and insurrection angle, but it’s the most politically salient aspect of it. mailchi.mp/crooked.com/bi… .@RepJeffries and the Dems are handling this immediate crisis really well, but they can’t stop Republicans from choosing MAGA over consensus. And that fateful choice has huge implications for Democratic opposition politics over the coming months. eepurl.com/gQH7lz

I think they operate on the theory that hurting the incumbent president through chaos and sabotage helps their frontline members more than the antics themselves harm them. And the record from 2009-2022 suggests it’s at least a wash.

https://twitter.com/mattyglesias/status/1610974222221774848

Abridged history:

2009-10: Total lockstep obstruction, huge landslide

2011-12: Constant hostage taking, near default, keep the House

2013-14: Shut down the government, win huge landslide

2015-16: Nominate Trump, win trifecta…

NEW: Right-wing billionaires like Elon Musk want to control Twitter because they understand how it punches above its weight as a social platform. mailchi.mp/crooked.com/bi… Apart from tweaking what ideas dominate Twitter, Musk clearly wants to use it to try to replicate the zone-flooded-with-shit information environment that brought the hard right to power last time… eepurl.com/gQH7lz