No one will save us. We have to save ourselves. Profile picture
Around '2000, at a HS reunion, I gave a talk about global warming as intergenerational theft. We're still failing to deal with it.
Ross Grayson, MPH, CIH Profile picture Neal Rauhauser Profile picture James Scaminaci III Profile picture STEPHEN Profile picture Martin Smith Profile picture 5 added to My Authors
15 Sep
Gaslighting journalist for @theintercept claims that "the far left invents a white supremacist elite in charge of the country, just as the far right imagines a pedo cabal".

Let me *start* with Trump's 2016 meeting with the author of a race war novel: 4thgenwar.wordpress.com/2016/07/03/tru…
2) I initially thought of stopping at my response, above, but Fang's claim is just too absurd for a mere academic retort. SO...

In that race war novel, author William S. Lind predicted an American civil war, w/ethnic cleansing, *starting in 2020*.

Now, I have no evidence...
3) That Trump ever read Lind's "Victoria: A Novel of 4th Generation War" (he doesn't read books, being quite dyslexic) but that hardly matters. Myriad actions of the Trump Administration suggest the guidance of Lind. We'll never know, of course, but he's 1 of the master strategic
Read 20 tweets
30 Aug
An historian of the Reconstruction period, @thevholloway, agrees with this statement. So, is Trump is leading a campaign to resegregate America?

In 2016 Trump met the author of a race war novel whose book portrayed African-American families forced from cities into sharecropping
2) Let me expand on that - In William S. Lind's novel Victoria - A Novel Of 4th Generation War, African-American families are forced, at gunpoint, from cities into compulsory sharecropping (on predominantly white-owned land, a reality Lind does not mention) in the country...
3) Now, Lind is not some random white supremacist crank. He is one of the most important intellectuals of the paleo-Conservative right (think Pat Buchanan) & one of America's keenest military strategists, who for years worked w/Paul Weyrich, who helped build the Christian right.
Read 22 tweets
23 Aug
Decades ago, charismatic churches were implicated in the promotion of a prototypical form of QAnon, what is referred to as the "satanic panic".

The "satanic panic" claimed hundreds of thousands, or millions even, of kidnapped kids were being sacrificed to Satan.

QAnon ain't new
2) Influential charismatic pastors such as Texas megachurch founder John Hagee, were pushing "satanic panic" ideas into the early 1990s or even later. The idea that there was a huge underground movement of satanism in the US was a way to try to explain rising crime as well as...
3)..increases in the divorce rate and the rise of the LGBTQ movement, and growing secularism generally. These ideas were based on another paradigm expounded in a 1973 John Hagee book, "Invasion of Demons: The Battle Between God and Satan in Our Time"
Read 33 tweets
21 Aug
The arch-conservative Heritage Foundation has tallied 140 convictions for mail-in ballot fraud over the past 20 years.

That's 7 per year.
2) After the 2016 election, Trump claimed there had been millions of fraudulent votes. In 2017, This American Life ran a fascinating segment called "Fraud Complex", on the fascinating math behind what might *seem* to be large numbers of fraudulent votes... thisamericanlife.org/630/things-i-m…
3) So, turns out there are in fact large numbers of people who share the same name, age, and birth date.

What? Yeah. Take the name "June". Guess in what month people name their babies "June". There are lots of names like this, that cluster in specific months. That's one way
Read 6 tweets
18 Jun
A post on the official Trump for President Facebook page attacks Antifah & "Dangerous MOBS of far-left groups" and sports an inverted red triangle, a symbol the Nazis would force anti-fascists & other political prisoners in Nazi concentration camps to wear.
2) The link certainly seems legit. Has the Trump for President campaign page been hacked? Maybe, but this post has been up for 4 hours.
3) If you go to this link and click on "Home", you'll get the "Official Team Trump" home page, which tomorrow will feature an interview between Donald Trump & Donald Trump, Jr.
Read 19 tweets
5 Jun
There's so much police dysfunction to unpack in this video, now viewed almost 50 million times.

To begin with, the police outnumber the protestors by 10:1 at least. Why so many? Is police intel so bad they got the expected protestor number wrong by orders of magnitude? ...
2) This is exactly the sort of mistake that would happen if the Buffalo police were getting their intel from Internet fever swamps where malicious disinfo is rampant.

They seem to have arrived with the mentality that they were going to be vastly outnumbered and trying to...
3)..control rampaging, looting crowds of many thousands.

A force of a half dozen police, without riot gear or tear gas would have been quite sufficient here.

But they failed to adjust their behavior to the reality. Why such battle frenzy? Coffee? Steroids?
Read 11 tweets
16 May
There was also the case of Donald Trump, Jr. cavorting with James Edwards, whose Council of Conservative Citizens played a key role radicalizing Dylann Roof towards his racist massacre. The Trump campaign found the beating PR heart of white supremacy in America, and patronized it
2) This was a tale of Trump & the white supremacists that I mined in parallel with Dave Neiwert's concurrent work (which I had no idea was going on). The Trump ties to American white supremacy were that profuse (see: huffpost.com/entry/donald-t… & huffpost.com/entry/from-ins…). But...
...how did the Trump people figure out how to do that? I guessed it was Roger Stone's doing. Just a couple of days ago I got so strong confirmation:
Read 6 tweets
14 May
From Dr. Rick Bright's testimony, today, before the U.S. House: "The world is confronting a great public health emergency which has the potential to eclipse
the devastation wrought by the 1918 influenza which globally claimed over 50 million lives."

So let's consider that...
2) The 1918 Influenza killed 50 million, out of a global population of about 1.5 billion. That's 1 out of every 30 people, a mortality rate of at least 3.333333 percent (more, actually, because it didn't infect everyone.)

In 2020 the world's population is about 7.8 billion...
3) So that works out, if Dr. Bright is correct, to be about 234 million people globally. Plus the larger group which survived but had lingering damage from the virus. That could be the better part of a billion. But wait! We're not done.
Read 5 tweets
8 May
"Damnatio memoriae" refers to an ancient practice in which all traces (and written records) of a disfavored (& vanquished) individual are destroyed. This is the ultimate expression of Bill Barr's idea. "The winners" can literally remake reality, or at least our memories of it...
2) The Damnatio Memoriae is perhaps the purest expression of the totalitarian ethic; history itself can be rewritten to suit the needs of the rulers. But, also, what truly happens may never be recorded in history books.

Americans like to think of themselves as a people...
3)... and a political culture that's above such impulses. But it was only in 2018, for example, that one of the great pogroms of modern America, the 1921 destruction of "black Wall Street" in Tulsa, Oklahoma, and its accompanying massacre came to widespread public attention...
Read 17 tweets
22 Apr
I'd put it a bit differently - just because dark $ groups helped finance these protests doesn't mean the people are fake, & the danger of dismissing them is that their movement will grow...
2) Of course, a certain number of the folks who participated in this first round of "open America up" protests will now get sick from #COVOD19, and even die. The #coronavirus will relentlessly sap their movement...
3) But one key implicit point Davin Burghart is making is that these protests are *not* "fake" in that they involve real time & commitment by real individuals. Is there really a nucleus of Americans as big as 1.3 million w/agendas this extreme? Probably...
Read 10 tweets
17 Apr
Barry County, Michigan sheriff Dar Leaf, at the 2019 "Liberty Conference" held by the militia movement-aligned CSPOA, declared that 'the Social Democrats, Democratic socialists, Progressives, etc., are ” just people who can’t spell Communism”.' cspoa.org/cspoa-2019-lib…
Sheriff Leaf, per the CSPOA, went on, "Sheriff Leaf spoke of the historical duties, rights and powers of the Sheriff. and shared this US Supreme Court case on the power of the Sheriff:

The Sheriff represents the sovereignty of the State and he has no superiors in his county..."
3) "...and in the execution of his law enforcement duties the Sheriff represents the state and a “county commission has no direct control over how the sheriff fulfills his law enforcement duty”. McMillian v Monroe County, 520 US 781, 791, 792-94; 117 S Ct 1734 (1997)."
Read 7 tweets
1 Apr
Incompetence? All the evidence suggests no.

"the press prefers to stick with the safe narrative that the White House is muddled and disorganized. To address the other possibilities would raise stunning questions about the President of the United States" pressrun.media/p/medias-taboo…
2) Now, after you've read Boehlert's take, try on this extremely hard-hitting Boston Globe editorial board op-ed, which declares that Trump has "blood on his hands" but attributes the calamity to mere incompetence.

bostonglobe.com/2020/03/30/opi…

#COVID19 #coronavirus #CoronavirusUSA
3) Data points supporting Boehlert's argument keep flowing in. For example - Trump Administration now refuses to extend window so people can sign up for Obamacare. Thus, people who get #COVID19 won't get medical care, won't get tested. They'll spread it.
Read 13 tweets
26 Mar
Let's be frank. I have long distrusted the NYT's political coverage, and & said so. But one aspect of the NYT's work that I have long trusted & continue to trust is its health coverage.

This @nytimes editorial board op-ed calling for a 2 week national lockdown is deadly serious.
2) The US, as the op-ed observes, has wasted the time window in which it could pursue the sort of testing intensive, micro-targeting approach that South Korea has used so successfully. The #COVID2019 #coronavirus has outstripped the possibility of making that work...
3) The *only* approach left to us, short of declaring martial law, is a 2 week shelter-in-place national lockdown, with trips outside restricted to buying absolute essentials, and exercise - keeping 6 feet of distance between all individuals.
Read 5 tweets
26 Mar
Case #1, Man planned to kill dozens #COVID19 patients with a car bomb :

TERRORIST.

Case #2, Man refuses to send life saving medical equipment to save the lives of hundreds or even thousands of #COVID19 patients, because of a personal grudge :

PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES.
2) In case you missed it., the 1st case is very real - the FBI just thwarted an attempt to blow up a hospital that is treating #COVID2019 patients.

nytimes.com/2020/03/25/us/…
3) The 2nd case, of course, is very real as well. NY governor Cuomo asked Donald Trump for 30,000 ventilators. FEMA initially sent 400. After a media uproar, FEMA sent a few more (either 600, or 1,000 more depending on reports.) But FEMA still has about 15,000 in reserve.
Read 4 tweets
24 Mar
At the current rate of increase, every last woman, man, and child will have been infected by the #COVID19 #coronavirus by April 25th.
2) I continued the progression shown on this chart by multiplying by 1.312 (current rate of daily increase).

In 19 days it was over 341 million.
3) As the chart suggests (see shaded box) even a slight bending of the curve, say down to 1.2 and change, can dramatically slow the pace.

But at the moment we're on the fast track.
Read 4 tweets
20 Mar
The White House Twitter account just told young Americans to go about their normal business if they do not have any obvious symptoms of having gotten the #coronavirus.

If the WH were *intentionally* trying to spread the disease, I'm not sure how they'd do things any differently.
2) I'm laying this on a bit thick, maybe, but shouldn't the WH be telling young people that *they can spread the disease even if they have no symptoms* ?
3) "Stay at home" does not necessarily mean "don't go out", at all. Young people are quite aware they're staying at home with their parents.

But if they should only "self isolate" if they're sick then they'll probably continue to go to stores, friends' houses, parties...
Read 5 tweets
12 Mar
We need inventors to McGyver a mask, from commonly available materials, that can do something close to what an N95 rated face mask can do.

Because we'll be putting #COVID19 coronavirus triage centers in dead mall space across the nation.

Our volunteers will need protection.
2) And we need inventors who can McGyver respirator devices to force air into compromised respiratory systems.

There will be hundreds of thousands of people, at least, who need this to survive. Many of them won't anyway but they deserve a fighting chance.
3) OK - What does it mean, to "McGyver". This is an old TV show reference. McGyver was always getting into life or death situations and he'd always invent his way out of them using household bits like paperclips.
Read 4 tweets
12 Mar
Once again, a quick math lesson:

~330,000,000 Americans (some are out of US) so:
320,000,000 X 50% = 160,000,000

X 1% mortality = 3.2 million dead
X 5% mortality = 16 million dead

5% is probably much too high. We'll find out.

But wait, there's more!
2) Because we're ignoring most rational prophylactic measures (the most important of which is TESTING), we are not going to have a "flat curve" epidemic in the US.

No, my pretties. We're heading for a steep curve.



So maybe 50% of the cases will hit..
3)..within a short window of time. So assume 50% of America is going to get it. And 50% of those who get it get symptoms within a three week window.

That means we have a wave of 80 million Americans sick with #COVID19 at the same time.

And 20% of those require hospitalization
Read 5 tweets
11 Mar
This is the most revelatory explanation of how badly Trump devastated America's disease outbreak response capability by eliminating his Pandemic Response Task Force - because that was created to coordinate all the myriad federal agencies to cope with something like #COVID19...
Science writer Laurie_Garrett discusses what the Obama's Pandemic Response unit at the National Security Council was set up to do - for example, coordinate the work of many different gov. agencies to pull off massive logistical challenges like feeding a quarantined city. Oh yes..
3) We *will* be quarantining cities or whole regions. So how will they get food? And, the Pandemic Response unit is exactly what would have chopped through the various layers of bureaucracy to make sure testing happened fast and at scale. It was designed to get the CDC, the FDA..
Read 10 tweets
10 Mar
Was at the doctor's office yesterday. The receptionist asked if I'd been out of the US recently: nope. I went in...

Patients were coughing. Doctors were coughing. Tech folks were coughing.
Thing was, I wasn't all too worried for myself. Why? Well, about 5 weeks ago my SO got sick, & it was by far the sickest I've seen her in 25 years together. I've never seen her sick more than a couple of days, except 1 week in the year Trump got elected: Strep throat. But this...
3)...this was different. A couple of days in bed, not too awful, then came the cough. Which settled in for a whole month. She's almost fully recovered now, but wow. Me, I had four, five days of mild symptoms, then a *very* mild long tail. In retrospect we realized that...
Read 7 tweets
10 Mar
So the dark periwinkle colored part of the graph is how the #COVID19 coronavirus is hitting South Korea, which has implemented massive, easy, ubiquitous testing for the virus.

Yellow part is what's going to happen in the US.

Blue line is where the health care system crashes.
2) There are differing models for better/best practices, in dealing with #COVID19, being tried out in various countries. Some approaches use higher levels of coercion than others. South Korea seems to be doing an amazing job with less coercion and ubiquitous, easy testing.
3) Key to making that model work is getting an early start w/the ubiquitous, easy testing, BEFORE the epidemic gets going in force. Because w/that, authorities can separate & quarantine the relatively few individuals who are infected. They don't have to lock down entire cities...
Read 12 tweets