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@btcfeen
BTC is going to 250k and there’s nothing you can do about it #bitcoin
Jan 11, 2023 • 9 tweets • 2 min read
I think BTC going to have a better 1H of the year than most people think and a worst 2nd half. Reason being is I think there’s a sweet spot between fed pause (q1) and when unemployment starts to ramp and equites get hit The bear caused by the hiking cycle is basically over. Now comes the earnings part of the bear if there’s a recession (seems likely based on yield curve inversions 8/8). I think BTC can even do decent through this phase if there is no liquidity event in stocks
Jan 11, 2023 • 11 tweets • 4 min read
break 17.4 and 18.4 is next. break that and might be game on. 18.9 weekly resistance Image things i am watching. Do people short this level like 6k was shorted in 2019?
Dec 1, 2022 • 9 tweets • 2 min read
What’s btc’s cycle peak high next cycle? My math says 132k. This is based on diminishing returns on mvrv and realized prices over time. It takes more money to pump BTC every subsequent cycle. Here’s the math…
Dec 1, 2022 • 12 tweets • 2 min read
Thread about btc’s security model and why anyone saying it’s broken is just fudding. There are two ways miners get paid. The block subsidy and transaction fees. We all know that every 4 years the block subsidy halves. Detractors say that bc this eventually trends to zero that there will be no miners left to confirm blocks
Sep 29, 2022 • 13 tweets • 4 min read
I know everyone thinks on chain metrics are useless but i figured i would take a look at some things and see if i can gain anything to what is going on... thread below wallets with 10 btc and under are accumulating and very aggressively. they know this is a deal here long term. this started below 40k. Image
Jul 18, 2022 • 4 tweets • 1 min read
Qqq breakout of falling wedge, retest and continuation? Image Spx right at wedge resistance. Big level Image
Jun 16, 2022 • 4 tweets • 2 min read
over time BTC's pumps get smaller percentage wise, but i am assuming the troughs do too. if we go up half 10x from bottom next cycle, with a 60% drawdown, then 5x with 50%, then 2x you end up above a mil pretty easily. it doesn't seem that far fetched to me given the adoption i think people are concerned about if we lose the ath. i really am not if we do. 2017 was a bubble of epic proportions and we really shouldn't have probably gone that high.
Jun 14, 2022 • 4 tweets • 1 min read
Imo bottom this week. Either already happened or happens soon Reasons 1. All eth on chain is liquidated 2. The move from 20k seemed to be forced selling 3. People didn’t want to sell but they had to sell 4. On chain metrics I like are super attractive levels. 5. Fed pivots this summer
Jan 30, 2022 • 5 tweets • 2 min read
Still pretty sure we hit ote at some point this year. Maybe top of range (fed dependent). Not sure if we fake the bottom range, run final 3x liquidations and stops. Then massive short squeeze. Liquidity is to the upside at this point medium term imo The two scenarios I’m looking at
Jan 28, 2022 • 12 tweets • 4 min read
now time for a little metrics thread. I am no expert but i know enough to be dangerous. Sadly only have tier 2 access on glassnode so nothing mind bending here. start with realized losses. This shows me we have a similar pattern to last summer. 2 large capitulation spikes. i think this means selling is close to being done Image
Jan 28, 2022 • 29 tweets • 7 min read
ok here it goes. we all know the correlation to risk assets has picked up lately. I am pretty sure this is due to rise in institutional interest. Even back in 2017 most people on wall street thought BTC and Crypto were a joke, hence they weren't really involved and no correlation This started to change since 2018, as it was clear BTC wasn't just going to die. Institutions had clients asking about it so they needed to have a BTC strategy. More infrastructure was also built.
Jan 24, 2022 • 19 tweets • 3 min read
Thread incoming on why you shouldn’t be panicking here and buying instead. And I don’t care if it goes a bit lower. Low 30s is phenomenal value for Bitcoin The United States and it’s associated central bank The Fed Are trapped! Meaning they cannot let rates rise above a certain amount or the US gov cannot repay its debt and will default
Jan 15, 2022 • 11 tweets • 5 min read
a lil saturday TA. Overall i think this is a pretty good spot to buy btc. Could a liquidation event happen below 40? sure. but i put that at a lesser percentage than going up here overall 40k ish level is a big weekly pivot
Jan 14, 2022 • 8 tweets • 2 min read
Any hawkishness by the fed is just an opportunity to stack BTC at a cheaper price. They will need to reverse stance at some point this year, the only question is when. BTC is always the first market to top and bottom. It is extremely good at sniffing the policy changes out the worst case scenario from the fed policy error would be liquidity event like March 2020. I don't think it would be as severe as that but it is always possible. Remember to stack hard in that event. You will be scared shitless but lean into the fear.
Jan 14, 2022 • 4 tweets • 1 min read
BTC up 40x since this tweet. I expect another 20x in the next 5 Relevant
Jan 8, 2022 • 7 tweets • 2 min read
Such a weird time in BTC right now Bc holders aren’t selling. But just no new buying or network activity. Guess I’m expecting confined chop until BTC sees another catalyst I totally missed this, but the spike above 60k in early nov didn’t really have any network activity spike, meaning it was likely all derivatives led
Dec 27, 2021 • 4 tweets • 1 min read
this will either push and break with in the next day. or it will go back and test the bottom part of the range. based on oi dynamics i think up but don't get caught with your pants down Ugh
Dec 23, 2021 • 7 tweets • 1 min read
A little macro thread on what I expect in the first half of 2022 and why the energy crisis is such a problem Natural gas prices are exploding in the EU mostly Bc of ESG bullshit and Putin’s cat and mouse game. Places such as Germany have gotten rid of reliable base load energy sources such as natural gas, coal, and nuclear. This has caused prices to skyrocket
Dec 1, 2021 • 17 tweets • 3 min read
a little thread on BTC reflexivity and why 200k isn't that much of a stretch at all in the next 6 months. throughout BTC's history MVRV has had lower highs. This makes sense as in general it takes more capital to move the price upwards, but in general BTC is still very reflexive (meaning people get greedier as price rises and don't want to sell, making it easier for price to rise)
Oct 21, 2021 • 8 tweets • 1 min read
What portfolio would you recommend for someone entering retirement and why? List assets and percentages. I’ll share mine when I get some other answers Ok I would prob recommend this for the average person of retirement age: 15% BTC, 3% lending of BTC or stables, 2% tech stocks, 30 percent income producing real estate, 30 percent dividend blue chip stocks, 20% cash
Oct 9, 2021 • 4 tweets • 1 min read
The sell side liquidity crisis in BTC is real, meaning it isn’t likely to be pushed much lower other than derivative forced liquidation events. Price simply needs to go higher to find sellers. it turns into a question of how much demand we have for BTC and when people will sell Last time we had a sell side crisis was before 12k broke last year. Sellers didn’t step in until 20k broke. There simply wasn’t any sellers from 12-19k really. This time my guess would be around 100k some people will be willing to part with some BTC. It’s a big round number