Semafor congressional bureau chief, former Politico. Photo by @frankthorp
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Feb 4 • 4 tweets • 1 min read
Senate's bipartisan immigration/border deal down to spending portion now, per person with direct knowledge. The whole thing is about 280 pages long, includes Fend Off Fentanyl Act and Afghan Adjustment Act.
Senate GOP roughly split down the middle ahead of uncertain vote...
Increase to asylum standard includes looking at whether a migrant could have relocated within their own country or another country and been safe -- significant increase to the bar.
Also includes 50K visas a year
Unaccompanied children 13 and under would get access to counsel
Jan 31 • 4 tweets • 1 min read
NEWS - Bad vibes in Senate GOP on border deal
- Cornyn says "It certainly doesn’t seem" on path to passage
- Cramer mad at attacks on Lankford: "Republican senators are throwing him under the bus"
- Rounds suggests social media attacks coming from Russia
politico.com/live-updates/2…
Questions about whether this thing will even come to the floor + real frustrations about way this has played out
Cramer: “The very people who demanded that we have something on the border as part of the supplemental, suddenly all these months later say they don't want something"
May 30, 2023 • 4 tweets • 2 min read
Senate could blow past June 5
deadline w/o cooperation
Will conservatives slow it down?
“a lot of things that they could still do to convince me to collapse time,” said Sen. Lee. “If they don't do those things, then I might"
@DaniellaMicaela
Sens. Rand Paul and Ron Johnson said they would speed things up with some amendment votes. It’s possible that every day counts: 2011 credit downgrade happened AFTER a debt deal and Fitch warning this time
“I haven’t heard much of a desire to delay the inevitable,” Johnson said
May 15, 2023 • 4 tweets • 2 min read
New: Dems are very much banking on GOP messing up Senate primaries again -- and making it that much more possible for Dems to hold Senate
DSCC Chair Peters says R primaries produce candidates "that will be an opportunity for us"
@hollyotterbein@hollyotterbein Hard to find a better example than Nevada. National Rs prefer vet Sam Brown, but Marchant is running and has good record in primaries ... less so in general
Incumbent Sen. Rosen calls him a "three-time loser. A MAGA election denier. And so, he’s going to have his challenges"
Mar 28, 2023 • 4 tweets • 2 min read
Tough road for some Biden nominees
-FAA nom Washington and FCC nom Sohn withdraw
- Circuit nom Delaney in trouble
- Dems noncommittal on Labor nom Su
- Absence hampering Judiciary Committee
- Tuberville stalling Pentagon picks
@DaniellaMicaela@dlippman@DaniellaMicaela@dlippman Sinema indicated to Dems/admin that she did not support FAA nominee Washington, at hearing and privately. She never felt like any effort was made to assuage her.
Admin official: "If someone at the end of the day decides not to vote a certain way, that’s the senator’s decision"
Dec 9, 2022 • 4 tweets • 1 min read
NEWS: Sen. Sinema is switching her party affiliation from Dem to independent, she says in interview. “I don't anticipate that anything will change about the Senate structure,” she adds
She’s not talking about whether she’s running for re-election in 2024
politico.com/news/2022/12/0…
Sinema is keeping her committee assignments through Dems and says that “nothing will change about my values or my behavior."
Not totally clear whether Dems have clear control over 51 seats
“I would just suggest that these are not the questions that I’m interested in"
Dec 5, 2022 • 6 tweets • 2 min read
Ga. runoff tomorrow, but 2024 Senate moves underway.
3 red states may determine majority
Mont.- Zinke v. Rosendale? W.Va. - Mooney in, Morrisey and Justice looking
Ohio - Portman's already met with three candidates
@Olivia_Beavers@Olivia_Beavers In Montana, Tester hasn't yet decided if he'll run. Zinke: “I’m gonna make the decision after we get this budget through. Says Tester owes him steak dinner from 2018 (Tester disagrees)
Rosendale: “Jon Tester does not represent the people of Montana and needs to be replaced."
Nov 11, 2022 • 7 tweets • 3 min read
NEW: Story of why R Senate majority slipping away. Trump picks couldn't raise $ + super PAC SLF not aligned w/ NRSC
They think "all candidates are equally great ... don't think that's objectively true," says SLF's Law
Dems say Rs gifted them: “They completely fucked up recruitment,” @C_Roberts310
Oct 5, 2022 • 8 tweets • 2 min read
New: Dems protecting 23 seats in 2024 to GOP's 10, and at least eight Dem incumbents are undecided on whether to run again: Manchin, Tester, Cardin, Carper, Sanders, King, Kaine and Sinema
Huge stakes here for the party's ability to control chamber
politico.com/news/2022/10/0…
I talked to 19 of these senators, got statements from three others. And there's some good news for Democrats: Many swing state members say they are running
Baldwin, Stabenow, Casey, Klobuchar and Rosen.
Rosen said: “Am I undecided? No. I am all in. I’m definitely running,”
Sep 21, 2022 • 5 tweets • 2 min read
Not quite 'Almost Heaven': The Manchin-Capito split
Manchin wants Capito's help to get permitting reform through Senate, but Capito hasn't seen it and wasn't party to IRA deal
"She’s been patient with Joe, but this is a step too far"
Their friendship, he says is "unconditional ... Do we have political differences? Sure … I would do anything I could to help my friend Shelley Moore Capito"
Sep 20, 2022 • 4 tweets • 1 min read
Manchin says the text of his permitting reform legislation will be out tomorrow
“I’ve never seen stranger bedfellows, between Bernie Sanders and the extreme liberal left and the Republican leadership” lining up against his proposal , he says. “Revenge politics”
Sep 13, 2022 • 4 tweets • 2 min read
Sen. Graham's abortion ban bill is decidedly NOT unifying the Senate GOP this time around
"I’m not sure what he’s thinking here," says Sen. Capito. "I don’t think there’s much of an appetite to go that direction.”
Cornyn: “That wasn’t a conference decision. It was an individual senator’s decision.” He says his preference is leaving it to the states.
Sep 1, 2022 • 5 tweets • 2 min read
New: Rick Scott tires of Republicans' doubting his Senate candidates
“Sen. McConnell and I clearly have a strategic disagreement here … We have great candidates," he says in interview "It’s important that we’re all cheerleaders for our candidates.”
“If you trash talk our candidates … you hurt our chances of winning, and you hurt our candidates’ ability to raise money ... I know they’re good candidates, because I’ve been talking to them"
Aug 4, 2022 • 5 tweets • 2 min read
The question vexing Democrats: Biden 2024?
There's no stampede from him, but there is subtle drift away during one of the best week's of his presidency
Sen. Patty Murray: “He decides. I don’t even understand why that’s a question today"
@sarahnferris@sarahnferris Reps. Craig, Phillips opened it up, calling for a "new generation" of leadership. Dems =annoyed
“I don’t understand” why Ds aren’t discussing that this “has arguably been the most successful week of his entire presidency,” Khanna says, sted "in the press knocking the president"
Aug 2, 2022 • 4 tweets • 1 min read
New: Republicans newly motivated to beat Manchin in 2024 after he cut deal with Schumer
Barrasso: “His party’s very unpopular in the state of West Virginia and what he’s doing now is very unpopular ... We’re going to be focused on that seat in 2024"
politico.com/news/2022/08/0…
R primary shaping up. Mooney says Manchin "betraying West Virginia," Morrisey said Manchin "changed course and let the dam break wide open." Then there's Treasurer Riley Moore, Arch Moore's grandson
Manchin: "Does it affect me politically or not? I didn’t look at it that way"
Jul 14, 2022 • 4 tweets • 2 min read
Democrats agonizing over raising taxes just before an election, even on corporations and high-earners
Tester: Raising "taxes are never a winner. We need to be very careful.”
Rep. Susie Lee: “I don’t think tax increases would be popular,”
@sarahnferris@sarahnferris Dems discussing pretty modest stuff: Pass-through for Medicare, $10M earners and big corps. But Manchin wants all tax increases "scrubbed" for inflationary effect
And other Democrats are noncommittal. Raising corp taxes more popular in caucus than surtax on millionaires
Jul 13, 2022 • 6 tweets • 2 min read
New: Schumer trying to keep Manchin in the fold from Brooklyn on reconciliation. But Manchin not committed yet
“if I’m just doing something on one party line or the other party line, I’m not better than the rest.”
"We understand each other well enough.” Manchin says of Schumer. “He knows exactly where I’m at. Now whether they can get there or whatever, we’ll see.”
They've been talking a lot -- secret agreement was almost a year ago
Jul 11, 2022 • 4 tweets • 1 min read
Trump's 2024 flirtations squeeze GOP midterm strategy. Republicans leaders want clean referendum on Biden—not a campaign about Trump and Jan. 6
No. 2 GOP Sen. Thune: “the fewer disruptions, obviously, the better”
Story with @marianne_levine politico.com/news/2022/07/1…
“I get it, I get it,” Graham said of leaders’ concerns about Trump disrupting the midterms. “If President Trump is going to run …sooner he announces the more focused he gets on the future. Talking about comparing and contrasting rather than looking backward, would be the hope.”
Jun 22, 2022 • 4 tweets • 2 min read
With his eye on Senate's top job, Cornyn pushes through NRA opposition, 34 no votes from GOP and boos back home to clinch gun bill
“I’m committed to getting a result here. And I understand that some people are unwilling to listen," he says in interview
politico.com/news/2022/06/2…
It's a career-defining moment for Cornyn, who's battled with conservatives off and on his entire career
McConnell closes in on Roe after years of pushing courts rightward
McConnell wouldn’t take credit today, but Rs and Ds alike say he’s almost singularly responsible.
Barrasso: “It was Mitch McConnell’s ability that put us in a position to have 3 openings” politico.com/news/2022/05/0…
Today at GOP lunch McConnell told senators to focus on the “egregious leak” if they were uncomfortable discussing the substance of Alito draft. Afterward he scolded reporters for not focusing on it. But his decisions, particularly on Garland and ACB, are what made this possible
