NEW: Trump isn't just threatening "very high" tariffs on Denmark, Canada, etc.

He's openly saying that he wants tariffs to pay for his $5T tax cuts.

This will leave the bottom 50% (and likely more) of Americans worse off.

Let me highlight a few estimates: 🧵 Tax Foundation finds the bottom 40% would be worse off and the "middle class" would get nothing...

if Trump enacts 20% universal tariff and does pretty much every tax cut he's promised (i.e. no taxes on tips, overtime, Social Security, etc.)

The only people who end up much better off? Top 1%

2024 is on track to be an extraordinary year for the economy (and US stocks).

Here are 3 key points that show how incredible it is.

1) The US is defying expectations.
Inflation has fallen all the way back to 2.4% without a recession. Growth is strong & unemployment is still very low.

/1
2) The bottom 50% are benefitting.

The biggest wage gains have gone to the bottom 40%

And wealth has nearly doubled for the bottom 50%.

/2

NEW: Who benefitted the most in the Biden and Trump economies?

Today I published 17 charts (w/@aden_barton ) to try to answer this Q.

Most of America experienced lower unemployment under Biden. /1 Biden oversaw an incredible rebound from the pandemic with rapid — and widespread — gains including

*15.7 million jobs (6 million more than pre-pandemic)
*A manufacturing surge
*A start-up surge
*Child poverty reduction
*Lowest Black unemployment rate ever recorded
*A historic reduction in inequality
/2

NEW: An alarming number of Americans are already struggling, even if they have jobs

20.5 million are behind on utility payments

Nearly 25 million people are behind on their credit card, auto loan or personal loan payments. We haven't seen that since 2009
washingtonpost.com/opinions/2023/… Here's the breakdown:

Auto loan delinquencies are at an all-time high of 3.3 million.

Credit card delinquencies are the highest since 2009

Consumer loan delinquencies are highest since 2010

NEW: We need to talk about the East Palestine, Ohio train derailment. A 🧵

The heart of the problem = Norfolk Southern’s system didn’t detect a faulty part fast enough. There’s better tech out there. Freight rail should use it. /1

WaPo Editorial: washingtonpost.com/opinions/2023/… The faulty part was a bearing – where the axel connects to the wheel. Most freight rail detect bearing problems using temperature sensors along the rails.

The issue? By the time the bearing is super hot, it’s done. It’s akin to learning you're out of gas 1 block before empty /2

NEW: WaPo Editorial Board calls for a break up of the FDA. Food safety & nutrition should be its own agency.

Why?
-Baby formula crisis of 2021
-Lettuce outbreak of 2018
etc

All these crises have same issues: Slow response, unclear leadership, lack of $
washingtonpost.com/opinions/2023/… Report after report has said the same thing about slow FDA responses to food outbreaks: There's no clear leadership and not enough resources for food side

-Reagan-Udall 2022
-Politico investigation 2022 (via @hbottemiller )
-Numerous GAO reports
-HHS Inspector General 2016/17

The past week was one of the most joyous – and scary – of my life. (a 🧵)

I gave birth to my daughter and my heart grew several sizes.

Then the “silent killer” after childbirth hit me and I nearly died. I was almost sent home 2 days after delivery. Luckily, my doctor had me stay 1 more night. That saved my life. My blood pressure spiked and would not come down. I was sluggish, really swollen and on the verge of a seizure or stroke. /2

Inflation is high right now (6.2% is highest in 31 years).

Overall, wage growth is NOT keeping up with inflation. Many American workers are worse off. (Chart 1)

*BUT* there are some parts of the economy -like hospitality - where wages ARE growing faster than inflation (Chart 2) As @Claudia_Sahm points out, ~155 million Americans received a stimulus check in 2021. And ~35 million families are getting monthly Child Tax Credit payments.

This $$ helps low and moderate income households get by right now.

BUT the longer this goes on, the harder it will be

It's Friday, so let me take a minute to say THANK YOU.

Thanks to the many who engaged in a thoughtful dialogue today on how to press Fed Chair Powell for more info at his press conferences.

Fed is playing a huge - $7 trillion - role in markets & economic (we hope) recovery. /1 I agree w/the basic point: We need more scrutiny of the Fed.

It's playing a huge role right now.
It's set up a bunch of new programs.
And, inevitably, some things will go wrong (obviously, some already have).

But I also challenge the critics... /2

NEW: Administrative assistant jobs helped propel many women into the middle class. Now they are disappearing.

The US has lost 2.1 million “administrative support jobs” since 2000. /1
washingtonpost.com/business/econo… The US has lost millions of jobs in 2 areas since 2000: “production” (aka factories) and “office support” (aka admin assistants, clerks, bookkeepers).

Male-dominated factory job losses have received a huge amount of attention.

Female-dominated admin jobs losses have not / 2