Medicare part D had an ingenious bidding process for determining the level premiums. Beginning 2024, the IRA sets the premium level independent of the bids (sorry my bill summary overlooked that!). That level is well below costs.

Has anyone worked out the new bid equilibrium? @C_Garthwaite @markduggan_econ @ProfFionasm ?

I think that any Part D plan wanting to recover costs must bid above the national average. Is the equilibrium infinite bid? Or many plans submit bids they know will not allow them to recover costs?

What will the AEA do?

Reasons to suspect that it will embark on signaling left-leaning virtue, at the expense of original mission:

(1) look at other professional orgs. Eg, AAP in 2020 knowingly compromising kids' health to show support for unions. 1/4
johnhcochrane.blogspot.com/2022/07/letter… (2) AEA officers have a personal interest in becoming political players, rather than executing far less glamorous tasks that support AEA's original mission,

(3) Unlike shareholders or executives in a for-profit business, AEA officers suffer little if any ... 2/4

Blue states ended 2020 in a deeper hole than red states. Therefore no reason to expect them to have the same % increases going forward. Indeed, blue states grew more % through May. All of the sudden in June and July, that stopped.

Here's the picture in terms of convergence rates Anything special happen in June & July, differentially in red states?

Micro people say need to "check for pretrends". I agree but who checked? In employment levels, big difference in pretrends. In convergence rates (above), pretrends look similar or maybe a bit toward blue.

Montgomery County, MD teachers unions use the force of law to prohibit their competitors' product. If their competitors do not obey—prison!

montgomerycountymd.gov/OPI/Resources/…

1/4 Special interests should not be allowed to use force to prohibit their competitors' product. But I saw this many times in government: shipping, health insurance, internet advertising, autos, small-$ lending, higher ed, household appliances, labor, Rx drugs, and lots more.

2/4

PESSIMISTIC. A lot interesting has been learned about getting back to school. But this information will have little value unless there is a case, well articulated, that in person school can continue even AFTER the 1st student, or family member of a student, TESTS POSITIVE. 1/5 Here is what I observed at a summer camp. The kids each have their own boat (think small bathtub that is put in a sea or lake). Each instructor has a separate boat and a megaphone to tell the kids how to make their boats sail. 2/5

But the interests of children count the least in school programming. The interests of parents count second least. As a sector with hardly any for-profit presence, the incentives to satisfy customers are dull at best. Those in charge will say “close schools to be safe”

https://twitter.com/kerpen/status/1280491183639334921

To the extent that there is competition among primary schools and among secondary school, it is either (i) getting families to move from one district to another or (ii) between public and private (or home school). 1/3

@GlennLoury objects. University administrators are economic actors too, who will not benefit from a repeat of 1968, so it is predictable that their reactions might risk some scholarship, reason, and learning. 1/4

https://twitter.com/GlennLoury/status/1269005683980197893

But there is also competition in the industry and thereby an opportunity for an (aspiring?) administrator who expresses the interests of the many individuals who have not yet reached the fashionable conclusions. Something like famous Zimmer letter wsj.com/articles/free-… 2/4