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Casus Belli Profile picture
Casus Belli
@casusbellii
Slightly French Analyst / Investigator using all the "INT" | Mostly Africa and ex-USSR | RT ≠ endorsement
Oct 21 • 7 tweets • 4 min read
🇸🇩🇰🇬| A Kyrgyz plane appears to have been shot down by the RSF in Sudan.

The aircraft is believed to be EX-76011, according to the wreckage found, and was carrying crew. A Russian passport and an engineer's work card, also potentially Russian, were also found. 🇰🇬🇸🇩| This plane was already identified back then flying from Abu Dhabi to different locations in East Africa including Ethiopia, Libya, Sudan ...

It seems that the plane shot is an IL-76 which @Gerjon_ identified back then Image
May 17 • 9 tweets • 2 min read
Si l’invasion de l’Ukraine par la Russie était une rupture nette de l’ordre international établi, la situation actuelle en Nouvelle Calédonie et particulièrement l’ingérence étrangère sur le territoire français est le signal de ce que va connaîtrede plus en plus la France dans les prochaines décennies La débâcle américaine en été 2021 Afghanistan était peut-être déjà le premier signal d’un basculement important pour les occidentaux

S’en est suivi le retrait français du Sahel depuis 2020, qui a eu lieu d’abord parce que les populations locales rejetaient notre présence
May 16 • 5 tweets • 3 min read
I see a lots of people being surprised by the azerbaijani activities in New Caledonia so here’s a short thread :

Back in end of 2023, a "copy pasta" campain was launched on twitter and other plateform using this AI generated picture to denounce the agreement betweent 🇫🇷 & 🇦🇲



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Image For the record, few weeks after the complete cession of Nagorno-Karabakh to Azerbaijan, France supplied Armenia with 50 armored vehicles "Bastion" which triggered a large campain from Baku against France.

hetq.am/en/article/162…
May 15 • 5 tweets • 3 min read
🇦🇿🇳🇨🇫🇷🚨| Following the current incidents in New Caledonia, a significant influence OP has been launched on internet against France.

Dozens of burner accounts appeared, sharing messages attempting to make the link between algerian history of decolonization and New Caledonia.


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Image 🇦🇿🇳🇨🇫🇷🚨| At this time it is unclear wether there’s only Azerbaijan behind this info OP or any other state (China.. Russia ..).

This is not the first influence OP they push on here.

They are also very active on different levels, including political and local.


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Feb 23 • 15 tweets • 5 min read
En cette veille "d'anniversaire" de l'invasion de l'Ukraine j'aimerais partager quelques pensées et constats après deux ans de guerre qui ont bouleversé bien plus que le territoire ukrainien.

Pour ma part j'ai vu en direct l'invasion (sur les caméras aux frontières) du 24 Février 2022 très tard dans la nuit et j'ai pu assister en temps "qu'acteur" l'essor de l'osint sur la question.

J'ai progressivement concentré mon intérêts sur ce qui se passait en dehors de l'Ukraine, en particulier en Afrique où un mouvement s'amorçait déjà depuis quelques années qui signalait un changement majeur de paradigme et que l'on a peut-être mal anticipé ou considéré en France.Image Tout ce que je vais dire ici concerne bien sûr mon point de vu franco français et n'est en aucun cas une vérité absolue, en fait il pourrait même y avoir des erreurs et des approximations mais je pense que ça peut-être intéressant d'apporter un peu mon point de vue à un moment ou tout le monde s'exprime, ou se vautre.
Oct 24, 2023 • 6 tweets • 2 min read
🇰🇿🇺🇸| In a very interesting development, US Ambassador to Kazakhstan Daniel Rosemblum inaugurated a NATO liaison office in the country's capital.

The news has flown under the radar, but it's a very interesting development that's had a lot of resonance in Russia in particular.

After Russia, Kazakhstan is the biggest supplier of active troops to the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO).
Russian journalist Alexander Sladkov has published a long and interesting message from the Russian point of view on the evolution of Kazakhstan's relations.

Basically, they consider the country's positions to be increasingly hostile, notably through decisions to block exports of military goods to Russia.

Oct 6, 2023 • 6 tweets • 2 min read
🇸🇩🇺🇦🇷🇺| Videos attributed to Ukrainian special forces have emerged showing potential operations in Sudan.

This follows earlier reports of FPV drones being used against targets in Sudan.

The main targets were potentially the positions of the RSF and Wagner group in the Sudanese capital.
🇺🇦🇸🇩🇷🇺| A second video shows the use of drones on targets along the Nile, which flows through the capital Khartoum.
Aug 8, 2023 • 6 tweets • 4 min read
#Niger #NigerCoup After several days of research, I was able to find some interesting. information about the putschists, and in particular about their corruption and embezzlement

All the information shared in the thread is very reliable but for obvious security reasons I… twitter.com/i/web/status/1… Starting in 2020, the Direction des Ressources Financières et du Matériel (DRFM) of the Presidency of the Republic has granted the Chief of Staff of the Armed Forces Salifou Modi (today number two of the putschists) a weekly operating budget of 35 million FCFA (52k euros).

He… https://t.co/lGHICLrIePtwitter.com/i/web/status/1…
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Aug 4, 2023 • 10 tweets • 4 min read
Since a lots of people are not aware on whats going on in Niger here’s a thread that u can share & RT 🧵 :

So a lot of people are talking about the coup d'etat in #Niger as a popular revolution because security in Niger is supposedly bad, but it's not.

For your information,… https://t.co/a4uYHXw6DA https://t.co/u0h24W0i7Ntwitter.com/i/web/status/1…

As I've already said, the coup is motivated by the desire to remain in power.

Tchiani, the head of the junta, is the head of the presidential guard who led the coup.
He was about to be replaced in his post by President Bazoum.

I know from reliable sources that he is impulsive… twitter.com/i/web/status/1…