Aiming for an October top in BTC, if I were to pick numbers, which we all know is a grade above guessing, I'd say $BTC $142,690, $ETH $6900-8K, $SOL ~$420.

NFA, it's a meme world we live in ¯\_(ツ)_/¯ That would be a ~20% move for $BTC from here, ~40-60% move for $ETH, and ~2X for $SOL, but which adds $500B to BTC, $230-350B to ETH, and $100B to SOL (all circulating).

I also like the implied $ETHBTC and $SOLBTC ratios.

Crypto has left its early idealogue stage, and is entering an era of execution & distribution. When it comes to CT, one of this daily rag's struggles is it's obsessed with the "next thing." 🧵 While crypto's next leg of growth will be the most impactful in terms of S-curve adoption, it will be more boring for the idealogues, as it won't be about the next thing as much as doing the plain vanilla things right, and at scale. Important, but not as sexy for the mind.

The latest memecoin fiasco should make you think twice about cartoon character KOLs that have no reputation in crypto beyond that of yapping on X and claiming riches.

While there are some good ones, and pseudonymity is native to crypto… … A large # of cartoon character KOLs merely carry the illusion of influence, with no downside for hateful or predatory takes, given the veil of reputation they hide behind.

1/ If your friends associate you with Bitcoin, Ethereum, or any part of crypto, you’re probably getting Qs about what to do. It’s tricky to guide someone from where we are currently ($BTC ~$100K), especially if they’re an inexperienced investor. Some learnings from 10+ years of watching this dynamic play out... 2/ Establish that every action they take is their responsibility. You may have more knowledge or experience, but that doesn’t make you infallible. No one knows anything for sure about markets. The only people you know for sure are lying, are those who say they “know for sure.”

In the last bear, one of the reasons @placeholdervc focused on @solana was a belief that it would be the normie-chain w/ its speed, low fees & smooth UX. That's playing out with memecoins & more.

But we've been @ethereum supporters since inception, and that hasn't changed... 🧵 This cycle, though @ethereum may lose "normie-share" to @solana (already is), the community should continue leaning into cementing the network @ the center of the Internet Financial System (IFS). The IFS will grow in relevance into the back half of this decade, onboarding even more normies than we currently see.

If you're worried about this being a "memecoin only" cycle, you probably don't own enough $BTC.

Meanwhile, to those worried about "infrastructure-and-appcoins," everything is a pendulum... 🧵 Memecoins will force "infrastructure-and-appcoins" to show holders & stakers the revenue, aided by a more favorable regulatory environment.

Governance tokens will convert into cash flow tokens.

People on CT showcase far too "mutually exclusive" an attitude when they approach investing -- perhaps it's a product of how social media rewards sensationalism. First it was either $BTC or $ETH. Now it's either $ETH or $SOL. Next year it will be something different 🧵 Much better imo to build a balanced portfolio where you cut losers when you realize they're losers, but then firmly hold winners and let them compound. Big winners are relatively easy to spot, and best to buy in a bear. Hence why I tell newcomers to start w/ $BTC $ETH & $SOL, and go from there.

If you've been paying attention, as I know @ZoomerOracle has, you'll notice "shiny new coins" have been shining once again. Market participants learn a lesson in one market environment, and then try to apply it to all market environments, instead of thinking critically about what works in a bull, versus what works in a bear.

Bottom trolls in disbelief.

If you were shook, internalize the lesson that bears have the most power near the bottom.

While social momentum & validation will encourage bearishness near the bottom, it pays the least to be bearish there, and pays the most to be bullish. If you're publicly bullish through a downtrend, traders and reply-guys will come in with smart-ass comments about market timing not being perfect.

But the truth remains, it pays to remain bullish and active through bottoms as a long-term investor.

Use the ridicule as fuel.

1/ Still longing $TIA while haters spinelessly pile onto the downside momentum. When @CelestiaOrg recovers, it's not me that will be haunted by the thought, "Instead of jeering, I could have been buying $TIA < $5."

https://twitter.com/cburniske/status/1608628538693005312

2/ $TIA shorts paying up to 380% annualized to be short after an 80%+ drawdown - you can't make this stuff up 😂 coinglass.com/currencies/TIA

1) You are responsible for every investing decision you make. If you blindly follow what other people say, with no opinion or critical thinking of your own, you're playing a fool's game. Not only will you not hone your practice, but you’ll likely lose money in the coming yrs 🧵 2) I see an increasing amount of misinterpretation in my replies, and many long-time CT personalities showing signs of exhaustion (public or voiced 1:1), which tells me there's a new bumper crop of Xeeters amongst us...

A lot of the misinterpretation comes from not accepting what *you* are responsible for, or misunderstanding the the high-level lay of the land. Start with: the less entitled you are, the more you'll learn.

For those asking for a market update from me, I don't have much of an opinion. I'm not a trader, but a long-term investor, and move glacially. Have learned when you don't have a strong view, it's best to do little 🧵 Long-tail names have already gone higher than I expected, and it seems $BTC ETF approval is imminent. Can argue that ETF approval brings new flows (bullish), or is a sell-the-news event (bearish).

We'll see ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

More is not always more. #Ethereum is here to stay, but bridging UX, transaction cost, and L2 interop+centralization problems need to be discussed & addressed with vigor, as opposed to presuming to have won the crown of the next Internet.

https://twitter.com/Shaughnessy119/status/1727010807387664826

This is more a warning to ETH-influencers, than it is to ETH-builders, as the convos I'm having with Ethereum builders are increasingly including concerns around coordination complexity and decision-making complacency.

From its 2022 bottom, $SOL has now outperformed $ETH 3x.

I ❤️ $ETH, grew up professionally alongside Ethereum’s rise, continue to support many Ethereum projects, and stake ETH to this day.

But this cycle, $SOL has been, and likely will continue to be, the faster horse. The market distills all available information and is the final arbiter of whose theses are right and wrong in an investing context.

Someone who has claimed $SOL is worthless, or inferior to $ETH, has now been walloped by the market since December 2022.

With the recent takedowns, it’s worth internalizing there are good investors who have influence, and there are influencers who pretend to be good investors. Understanding where people derive their influence, and what they’re *actually good at* is important to determining whether you should take their thoughts seriously or not.

"Despite the bear market, in 2022 stablecoins on
several Layer-1s (L1s) transacted $6.87 trillion, overtaking @Mastercard and @PayPal." -@Jamie1Coutts

No wonder PayPal launched $PYUSD... "Though stablecoins' transaction growth has been exponential, and transfer volumes outpaced the likes of Mastercard and PayPal in 2022, they still only have 0.5-3% of the throughput of traditional payment networks." -@Jamie1Coutts

Scaling improvements incoming...

In 2023 #Ethereum fees have climbed 176% vs. the price, up 53%. The relationship between the two was instructive for the last bull market when fees outpaced price in 2020 after a two year decline. -@Jamie1Coutts The activity migration to L2s in the past year has proved wildly successful for Ethereum. In the last 12 months, hundreds of thousand of new users have been onboarded into Web3, as active L2 addresses increased by 245% to over 900,000. -@Jamie1Coutts

Existential doubt about crypto’s future in 2023 is the prerequisite for the types of multiples that people will gawk at in a few yrs — the specifics of doubt change each bear, but the doubt always emerges.

Something that’s a consensus long by society doesn’t print 10-100x’s. Most people don’t have the stomach to be doubted for so long, and persist.

Most hardcore doubters can’t resist the temptation to pile on here, thinking they’ve won.

It can feel overwhelming.

Never ceases to amaze me how humans chasing hot balls of money eerily resemble mosquitoes drawn to the light. Don't be a mosquito 🧵 "Crypto is dead, long live AI!" the current chorus from the mosquitoes. Whereas in reality, both crypto and AI will thrive -- that said, good tech can be a bad investment at the wrong price.

1/ A number of people asking me what I think about crypto in the context of the current banking crisis, regulatory fights, Balaji's bet, and so on - so here goes... 2/ Current banking crisis is bullish for crypto long run. Short-term we're likely in the eye of the storm, so expect volatility, but the banking crisis has been monetary policy-induced (too much, too fast with rate hikes) and will be "solved" by monetary policy.

The longer I operate in markets the more I accept price leads narrative. Narratives drift about in the ether, but they typically only become viral phenomenons that reinforce price, when price has shown enough direction in line with that narrative.