Hand of the King! @Kasparov63's aide-de-camp and co-author since 1999. Writer, ex-coder, ex-teacher. Youth baseball coach. @Renew_Democracy, @HRF. Tweets=mine.
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Dec 4, 2023 • 12 tweets • 3 min read
When people make up statistics, they create patterns and contradictions that become obvious when you step back from the trees and look at the forest. E.g. 97.2% of a day's 216 Gaza fatalities being women and children.
We got used to seeing a lot of this stuff working with Russian numbers, from election tallies to HIV and later Covid and later military deaths. Obvious caps in reporting, rounding patterns, etc. This is back when they bothered reporting at all, of course.
Oct 1, 2023 • 4 tweets • 2 min read
Of course you could do all that anyway, made-up numbers and Ukraine aid or no. Either argue against supporting an ally and standing up to Putin’s genocidal aggression on the merits or shut up. Aid doesn’t magically come out of whatever you want to scare people with.
Hahahahaahahah. This is amazing, even for a professional troll whose only goal every day is to post the stupidest possible crap for clicks. As if any of the money going to Ukraine could have gone to Social Security or any entitlement program.
Feb 25, 2023 • 4 tweets • 1 min read
This is what makes the "Peace Now!" folks either malicious or naive, and the "just deescalate and talk!" 'pragmatists' little better. The aggressor is untrustworthy and ceasefires cannot be enforced on Russia so they pressure Ukraine instead.
It’s activism and punditry in the spirit of the drunk looking for his keys where the light is better, not where he lost them. Putin says fuck off, so let’s tell Ukraine to surrender. A lot of it is also corrupt as hell. Russia hasn’t shut down its global influence campaigns.
Nov 25, 2022 • 4 tweets • 1 min read
The gutting of Twitter moderation will be less a problem of horrible people and bad state actors not being banned, but of their getting not-horrible people banned. Unsupervised algos are easy to game and the bad guys have a lot of experience.
This one seems more targeted, but that will also be on the rise. Spamming the complaint box has worked before, pre-Musk, and is something anti-Putin / pro-Ukraine accts have to deal with regularly on every platform. Ditto w critics of Xi, Erdogan, et al.
So Musk is going Full Kanye? Achieve awesome stuff, then blow it all away on Twitter on alt-right bullshit you know nothing about for clicks because you can safely dodge the collateral damage.
It’s naive, ignorant wrecking-ball "what-if" BS at best. Mouthing Kremlin/Trump-adjacent grayzone "freethinker" bro crap that often attracts moral idiot techies is probably the worst likelihood, since China business interests him more than Russia.
Sep 6, 2022 • 8 tweets • 2 min read
I love the way the Kremlin doubles down on the open threats and blackmail when the western appeasement crew is yakking about how Putin is misunderstood. No, he's a thug and wants everyone to know it.
Putin's success as a geopolitical bully has always been based on "I will use violence and threats to human life and wellbeing to advance my personal power and wealth. You will respond with concessions, further convincing me that you are too weak to stop me."
Aug 5, 2022 • 5 tweets • 1 min read
In June, a report said that 70% of Russian missiles hit "peaceful targets" in Ukraine. Amnesty saying that Ukrainian forces were endangering civilians with their presence is idiotic. They'd probably be safer near a military base than a shopping mall.
Russia is raining missiles all over Ukraine, pulverizing entire cities with the population of Miami or Tulsa, and Amnesty International is copy-pasting a fax from the UK Russian embassy blaming Ukrainian defense forces. Disgusting.
Jul 23, 2022 • 6 tweets • 2 min read
This would be funny if it weren’t so pathetic and horrific. Attacking militarily right after making agreements is what Russia does. Ditto with cracking down domestically after diplomatic concessions. It’s a middle finger. It’s the point.
Search for the phrases "coming just days/hours after" "the Kremlin/Moscow/Putin" "agreed/signed/summit" with "the OSCE/EU/PACE/Ukraine/UN" and you find bombings, invasions, mass jailings, etc. Concessions show weakness. Violating agreements doesn’t have a price.
Jul 1, 2022 • 5 tweets • 2 min read
While Tracey and the other Putin appeasers ask why Biden and other non-idiots "have abandoned diplomacy." Diplomacy takes two and Putin is still slaughtering people. What they want is capitulation to Putin and the euthanasia of Ukraine and to call that peace.
Condemning a few million more Ukrainians to Putin’s gulag while he rearms for his next offensive is only peace and diplomacy if you’re a moron and/or an appeaser. That the West was that moron appeaser for 8 years shows why not to do it again.
Jul 1, 2022 • 4 tweets • 1 min read
As always, it’s "trial" in Putin’s Russia. Any case involving anything remotely political is decided by the Kremlin based on its calculations. Things like evidence and witnesses are 100% under govt control and irrelevant to the outcome.
I hope the US sports reporters covering this because Griner plays basketball make this clear. There is no independent judiciary. Griner is a hostage and her freedom is a chip on Putin’s poker table like everything else. The "facts" of the case are unknowable and irrelevant.
May 5, 2022 • 6 tweets • 2 min read
Citizens of democracies always seem surprised at how quickly radical policies can move. What was unthinkable a year ago or a month ago is suddenly middle of the road, over and over. Picture it like a spinning rope. The further out you are, the faster you’re going.
It’s a self-accelerating feedback system that rewards attention with more attention. You have to keep raising the shock value to be #1. It drains attention from the less extreme in zero-sum fashion. There is backlash (eg Biden) but the trend is hard to stop.
May 4, 2022 • 5 tweets • 1 min read
Sweden will be in the top 5 of Russia’s rotating Enemies/Nazis list by the weekend. Tracking this list for two decades has been a depressing illustration of how effective propaganda is on a largely captive population.
Before Putin first invaded Ukraine in 2014, the EU barely appeared on the "Enemies of Russia" list. (Obviously, as it was a harmless bureaucracy.) But when Ukraine moved to break away from Russia and embrace the EU, it was demonized in preparation for UKR invasion.
Mar 14, 2022 • 9 tweets • 2 min read
I bookmarked this because it's part of a long, thoughtful thread that shows the struggle that "normal" people (Western, unused to the use of force) always have when dealing with dictatorships that routinely use force. Normals care about justifications, rules, norms.
They tie themselves in knots over how to deal with what dictators do automatically. The West will dance around for weeks about which color helmet will leave us in the right, or which won't provoke Putin, as if he gives a shit.
Mar 13, 2022 • 5 tweets • 1 min read
You don’t have to guess at what Putin will do if you look at what Putin has already done. If the occupied population isn’t compliant, deport them and murder them. Destroy communities. Bring in new mayors from afar if necessary. He’s been doing it for many years.
Putin has been occupying E Ukraine since 2014, and these inhuman tactics go back to Stalin. The "Ukraine will never be subjugated!" stuff is inspiring, but this isn’t Iraqis vs US counter-insurgency. It’s Aleppo or Grozny. Putin will bomb noncompliant cities to dust.
Mar 12, 2022 • 6 tweets • 2 min read
Of course. As I asked a week ago, what happens when Russia closes the supply corridors? If only Russia and its allies are allowed to fight in and above Ukraine, eventually they close the borders and there's no airlift without air control.
The Western rush to take things off the table, providing a handy map of escalation for their enemies, isn't de-escalatory or anything other than foolish. Red lines you won't honor are also bad, but the enemy should have some fear of what you might do.
Mar 11, 2022 • 6 tweets • 1 min read
How quickly will NATO rush out to say their forces won't engage by Belarusian invaders either? May have to break out their strategic red carpet reserve.
Are Syrians coming from Syria to murder Ukrainians in their homes also immune? Why have we preemptively conceded Ukrainian sovereignty to Putin?
Mar 1, 2022 • 15 tweets • 4 min read
Qs for the wise heads saying a NATO (or US) no-fly zone would be unacceptable escalation w Russia: Does that stand for you if Putin goes full Grozny/Aleppo? Is there a fixed Ukrainian civilian body count where you change your mind?
Does your logic of not escalating over Ukraine not apply to, say, Lithuania? Is it really that easy to say "Can’t risk WWIII over Ukrainian lives, sorry, but Lithuanian, of course. Because there’s this piece of paper and Putin would totally see the difference."
Feb 28, 2022 • 5 tweets • 1 min read
Seeing some "give Putin a face-saving off-ramp before he goes nuts and nukes us all" crap. 1) We're a long ways from needing to save anything other than Ukraine. 2) Putin can fabricate a pretext to leave just as easily as he fabricated a dozen ridiculous pretexts to attack.
It’s a reflection of the very human and normal response to constantly want to offer concessions and compromise and avoid conflict. It’s also a terrible way to deal with a dictator, who is a psychopath who sees it only as weakness.
Feb 23, 2022 • 4 tweets • 1 min read
Now that Putin has gone out of his way to make it clear that his invasion was planned to the hour months ago, that negotiations meant nothing but giving him time, let’s hear from the folks who demanded throwing Ukrainian sovereignty under the bus to appease Putin.
Tanks are rolling south and Putin is in position to move forces into Kyiv in under two hours should he wish, but sure let’s treat his lectures and demands about NATO history seriously. It never mattered. Fools and propagandists.
Aug 16, 2021 • 9 tweets • 2 min read
The Baltics aren't Afghanistan. Nor is Taiwan or Ukraine. But this Afghanistan debacle will resonate in those places and in the halls of power of the places that threaten them long after America has forgotten. Much of deterrence is about trust.
When authoritarian violence wins out over the rule of law, or even mere self-determination, imitators take note. No, you can't prove causation, but trends become trends for a reason. Western inaction in the face of force has become a trend.
Aug 1, 2021 • 6 tweets • 1 min read
It was always going to end at "Why didn't you make me get vaccinated?" It will always be someone else's fault. They will always be victims. They will always blame the same people.
Republican Governor? Blame Biden and Pelosi. Blame immigrants. If the red state Covid death toll gets high enough they'll have break the glass on the Blame Hillary alarm.
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