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Christopher Clary Profile picture
Christopher Clary
@clary_co
Associate Professor of Political Science, University at Albany; Nonresident Fellow, Stimson Center
3 subscribers
Jun 3 • 11 tweets • 3 min read
Presumably this ANI “sources” attributed piece will stand as the high bid in the ongoing media auction about how much damage the IAF inflicted during the Four Day Crisis. Image It would be good for a government spokesperson to put this on the record if this is indeed the Government of India’s view. However calibrated the hostilities were, the calibration on message management has fallen off since the last major briefing on May 12.
May 15 • 5 tweets • 2 min read
I've seen a lot of satellite imagery. What would I still like to see?
- I'd like to see the craters on Pakistani airfields again on May 11+ imagery to see whether they show signs of being repaired. I suspect some/all are.
- I'd like more & higher res imagery of Udhampur base. Some reason to suspect some damage to Udhampur based on initial satellite imagery but its not conclusive. And another more recent (lower-res) image doesn't seem to show any damage. Hence would be nice to settle.
May 11 • 25 tweets • 8 min read
I think I’ll start a thread of commercial satellite imagery of the aftermath of the India-Pakistan conflict. Feel free to send me things. Bholari airbase in Sindh, Pakistan. I’m not sure why Kawa Space didn’t release a time stamp so Symon has an estimate here.
May 10 • 20 tweets • 4 min read
Where does this go from here? What am I worried about? Best case scenario is Pakistan can squint & say it achieved quid pro quo plus. Take Rubio's off ramp, maybe get some guarantees of Gulf state money the next time it needs it, & we get out of this near-war before its a war. /1 However, I am skeptical and think Pakistan does not view the ledger as sufficiently close to parity to exit. That would mean the near-war continues & the destruction accumulates over time. Some weapons will be destroyed & no longer usable. Others will be exhausted through use. /2
Mar 11, 2024 • 4 tweets • 2 min read
I'm sensing some confusion--maybe there's an authoritative source--about whether a shorter range, Pakistan-focused missile, the Agni-Prime, already tested multiple warheads. /1 Some articles, like this one in the New Indian Express, say Agni-Prime in 2021 tested two MIRVs. /2 newindianexpress.com/states/odisha/…
Image
Mar 11, 2024 • 10 tweets • 2 min read
A few quick thoughts on India's first flight test of Agni-V with multiple independently targetable re-entry vehicle technology. /1 This is a long foretold technology development. Vipin Narang and I discussed Indian interest in MIRVing at some length in our 2018/2019 piece, "India's Counterforce Temptations" /2 direct.mit.edu/isec/article/4…