Associate Professor of Political Science, University at Albany; Nonresident Fellow, Stimson Center
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May 15 • 5 tweets • 2 min read
I've seen a lot of satellite imagery. What would I still like to see?
- I'd like to see the craters on Pakistani airfields again on May 11+ imagery to see whether they show signs of being repaired. I suspect some/all are.
- I'd like more & higher res imagery of Udhampur base.
Some reason to suspect some damage to Udhampur based on initial satellite imagery but its not conclusive. And another more recent (lower-res) image doesn't seem to show any damage. Hence would be nice to settle.
I think I’ll start a thread of commercial satellite imagery of the aftermath of the India-Pakistan conflict. Feel free to send me things.
Bholari airbase in Sindh, Pakistan. I’m not sure why Kawa Space didn’t release a time stamp so Symon has an estimate here.
Where does this go from here? What am I worried about? Best case scenario is Pakistan can squint & say it achieved quid pro quo plus. Take Rubio's off ramp, maybe get some guarantees of Gulf state money the next time it needs it, & we get out of this near-war before its a war. /1
However, I am skeptical and think Pakistan does not view the ledger as sufficiently close to parity to exit. That would mean the near-war continues & the destruction accumulates over time. Some weapons will be destroyed & no longer usable. Others will be exhausted through use. /2
Mar 11, 2024 • 4 tweets • 2 min read
I'm sensing some confusion--maybe there's an authoritative source--about whether a shorter range, Pakistan-focused missile, the Agni-Prime, already tested multiple warheads. /1
Some articles, like this one in the New Indian Express, say Agni-Prime in 2021 tested two MIRVs. /2 newindianexpress.com/states/odisha/…
Mar 11, 2024 • 10 tweets • 2 min read
A few quick thoughts on India's first flight test of Agni-V with multiple independently targetable re-entry vehicle technology. /1
This is a long foretold technology development. Vipin Narang and I discussed Indian interest in MIRVing at some length in our 2018/2019 piece, "India's Counterforce Temptations" /2 direct.mit.edu/isec/article/4…
