I've seen several people criticizing this aspect of the Wall Street Journal story because India has declared several times (at least since the 2022 misfire) that BrahMos is only conventional, but three thoughts came to my mind when I read this element of the story. /1 First, a Russian official told Izvestia back in 2012 that BrahMos was nuclear-capable. Here is the Hindu write-up of that report. The point is analysts didn't make up this notion out of thin air but had reasons to suspect it. /2

From CENTCOM Commander Gen. Kurilla's testimony to the House Armed Services Cmte: "ISIS-K remains an active branch..., presenting a formidable global EXOPS [external ops] threat that requires a network of partners – such as Pakistan, Uzbekistan, & Tajikistan – to combat." /1 "ISIS-K has been disrupted through pressure by both the Taliban in Afghanistan and Pakistan, though they continue to retain a significant network and freedom of maneuver in the tribal areas." /2

Presumably this ANI “sources” attributed piece will stand as the high bid in the ongoing media auction about how much damage the IAF inflicted during the Four Day Crisis. It would be good for a government spokesperson to put this on the record if this is indeed the Government of India’s view. However calibrated the hostilities were, the calibration on message management has fallen off since the last major briefing on May 12.

I've seen a lot of satellite imagery. What would I still like to see?
- I'd like to see the craters on Pakistani airfields again on May 11+ imagery to see whether they show signs of being repaired. I suspect some/all are.
- I'd like more & higher res imagery of Udhampur base. Some reason to suspect some damage to Udhampur based on initial satellite imagery but its not conclusive. And another more recent (lower-res) image doesn't seem to show any damage. Hence would be nice to settle.

https://x.com/clary_co/status/1922591942380015930

I think I’ll start a thread of commercial satellite imagery of the aftermath of the India-Pakistan conflict. Feel free to send me things. Bholari airbase in Sindh, Pakistan. I’m not sure why Kawa Space didn’t release a time stamp so Symon has an estimate here.

https://twitter.com/detresfa_/status/1921512564891996503

Where does this go from here? What am I worried about? Best case scenario is Pakistan can squint & say it achieved quid pro quo plus. Take Rubio's off ramp, maybe get some guarantees of Gulf state money the next time it needs it, & we get out of this near-war before its a war. /1 However, I am skeptical and think Pakistan does not view the ledger as sufficiently close to parity to exit. That would mean the near-war continues & the destruction accumulates over time. Some weapons will be destroyed & no longer usable. Others will be exhausted through use. /2

I'm sensing some confusion--maybe there's an authoritative source--about whether a shorter range, Pakistan-focused missile, the Agni-Prime, already tested multiple warheads. /1 Some articles, like this one in the New Indian Express, say Agni-Prime in 2021 tested two MIRVs. /2 newindianexpress.com/states/odisha/…

A few quick thoughts on India's first flight test of Agni-V with multiple independently targetable re-entry vehicle technology. /1

https://twitter.com/narendramodi/status/1767159762108465538

This is a long foretold technology development. Vipin Narang and I discussed Indian interest in MIRVing at some length in our 2018/2019 piece, "India's Counterforce Temptations" /2 direct.mit.edu/isec/article/4…