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Apex Profile picture
Apex
@classicmacro
Politics, markets, crypto & random stuff.
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Apr 2, 2021 • 4 tweets • 1 min read
Thoughts for those who want extraordinary returns in crypto and are willing to put the time:

Search for micro-caps under $10M and/or the most profitable yield farms.

Go all in into FA, not only product, team and cash flows but also meme potential.

Fuck TA and fuck large caps. Leave trading and the big coins for those who live for it and/or move size.

You can do very well there. But will never match the potential returns of micro caps (if doing small size).
Mar 27, 2021 • 10 tweets • 2 min read
Some trader is paying about $20 million in daily interest to short $MOB.

He has been borrowing all available $MOB to short it, adding to his position, and sending the interest rate for borrowing on margin to 3000% annualized.

You can make him blow up Gamestop style on FTX. I have no idea who this trader is nor why is he running that short.

But it is wild.
Mar 26, 2021 • 4 tweets • 1 min read
Many asking me if that was the bottom and about entry points. I have no idea. I bought the dip last night, went max long this morning, and have had my balls stuck in my throat most of the day. I have no idea if that was the bottom. Do think prices will be much higher in a week. What happened in the last 36 hours is simple. I was wrong, that's what happened. Why the crash. Many variables, not just one. Think options expiry had some impact. Doubt it was the dominant one. Macro correlations and risk sentiment had an impact. IMO the largest. It's debatable.
Mar 6, 2021 • 4 tweets • 1 min read
Charts say bottom across asset classes since early yesterday. On crypto funding reset, curves flattened dramatically, and the macro should be supportive for the coming weeks. Bottom is in translates into going all in, not into "wait for breakout". I'm slightly levered long positionally. Main plays since yesterday are $ETH (EIP 1559) and $UNI (V3).

$ETH is my largest position (which is rare), followed by $BTC. Expecting $ETH killers to lag.
Mar 6, 2021 • 6 tweets • 2 min read
How do traders make money with this kind of lagged analysis. Is this guy selling at $47200 because price failed to break $50000 overnight? Or is he indicating his followers should only long once $BTC above $50000? Guess you are supposed to buy $BTC only after it breaks 50K and then target 52K lol. Zero alpha there. Trade like that and you will trade for peanuts and get chopped up.

Grow some balls and learn to buy the dip.

Jan 27, 2021 • 5 tweets • 1 min read
Yesterday I tried to get my brother into crypto for the *fourth* time in the last year.

His response belongs in a book or case study about crypto and its barriers of entry.

It went like this 👇 Me: blockchain is driving a revolution. You would fit like a hand in a glove. It is extremely profitable and fascinating. You would find your niche and reap massive profits. Once again I offer you my guidance.

(He is an old school coder)
Jan 26, 2021 • 4 tweets • 1 min read
BTW crypto smart money is absolutely torn about short-term market direction, quite 50/50, and both sides have perfectly valid arguments at this point. We are flat on the week. To me the highest confidence play is selling vol. After a top and an insanely volatile bull-run, a range and compressing vol ensue.
Jan 25, 2021 • 5 tweets • 1 min read
Tip: if looking to time long entries intra-day and the market is trickling down, wait. wait until a stream of liquidations kicks in, as just now, that will add a few bps to your pnl on every trade. You are taking the other side of someone else's stop loss.
Jan 25, 2021 • 5 tweets • 2 min read
$BTC roadmap. Traded $28.8 instead of $27.5. Now back in the range. It did bounce back FAST. Expect to retest the high within 2 weeks. Thinking getting to 50K will be more challenging than I thought, as $BTC price action from the bounce has been relatively weak. The dip achieved it's purpose. This summarizes why I'm bullish from here 👇

Jan 21, 2021 • 5 tweets • 1 min read
Long $BTC short term with 1.5% stops here. looking for 34K. Looks like going to be a winner. That was not an amazing long setup but good enough. 32820 the entry,
Jan 20, 2021 • 4 tweets • 2 min read
$BTC held at the trendline. Levered longs obliterated as usual. Funding now flat. Quarterlies down from 25%-28% yesterday pre-Yellen to 18%-20% last night to 15%-17% now. Dollar did top as I thought. Risk assets such as stock raging on as espected.
Jan 18, 2021 • 11 tweets • 2 min read
$BTC views

Price needs to let volatility wear off before its next big move. Thinking 30K-40K range for the next 1-2 weeks. Then either 50K straight or after piercing 30K and bouncing back above 30K within 1-2 days. $27500-$27000 is the key area. If price heads back down to 30K, expect 30K to be breached, fall to that area, and bounce back. FAST. All very fast.
Jan 8, 2021 • 7 tweets • 1 min read
So ...

Gold and metals getting trashed

the dollar incredibly bottomed on the elections ... should have gone down, but didn't. Rates behaved as expected, but the dollar turned. The hindsight rationale for the change is higher growth => curve steepening AND higher real rates ... this was always a risk to the negative rates thesis, the flipside, the what happens if.
Dec 22, 2020 • 5 tweets • 1 min read
$BTC short-term views

- Grayscale closed subscriptions temporarily
- Futures basis sky high at various tenors
- December expiry this week: fireworks?
- IV very high

Thinking volatile pause in the trend ahead. 25K-19.5K all in play. Careful loading short-term bullets too soon. Broader market we have the UK virus panic and the fiscal package pulling in opposite ways. Short-term direction is just as unclear.
Dec 18, 2020 • 4 tweets • 1 min read
Most traders unfortunately do poorly. Too much leverage. Stops too tight. Fear of lossing. Trading against the trend. Too many edgeless tools. Guru fixation. Trade like retail and will lose like retail. Things I'd recommend to traders until becoming consistently profitable:

- eliminate leverage
- use only very wide stops
- reduce size accordingly
- never go all in
- focus on 1-4 assets
- eliminate indicators aside of volume and maybe 1/2 MAs
- trade only with the larger trend
Dec 16, 2020 • 5 tweets • 1 min read
This is how noobs do it:

#1 wait for bitcoin price to go up a lot
#2 feel FOMO
#3 look at underperforming assets for something to buy
#4 ignore that price is going down for a reason
#5 buy some garbage
#6 then bitcoin corrects and garbage drops even more

Always the same. This is how pros do it:

#1 identify winners
#2 wait patiently for a correction
#3 buy the winners whenever a correction comes
#4 weather the storm
#5 see prices go up and profit

Not difficult. Just need to be patient and wait for the opportunities.
Dec 15, 2020 • 4 tweets • 1 min read
If you think long-only traditional asset managers are buying bitcoin to dump it after a short period of time

you deserve to be poor.

Keep on drawing lines in your charts, and enjoy the ramen. There are mainly four kinds of institutional market participants:

- real money, i.e. traditional asset managers
- fast money, i.e. hedge funds, CTAs
- banks
- central banks, sovereign wealth funds & supranationals

Then you have family offices, and corporate treasuries.
Dec 7, 2020 • 4 tweets • 1 min read
The next 20K break, whenever that may come, could easily lead to a major $BTC breakout.

That's why being long is the best play even for those who are short-term bearish. Getting net short here hoping for 16K-17K is a bad bet to me, regardless of if price breaks down or not.
Dec 1, 2020 • 5 tweets • 1 min read
In traditional markets a 10x long generally refers to a trade ten times the size of the trading account.

In crypto markets a 10x long generally refers to a trade ten times the size of the position margin. That is so as Bitmex innovated by implementing "isolated margin", which separates the margin of a position from the rest of the account.

Don't have isolated margin outsde of crypto.
Dec 1, 2020 • 4 tweets • 1 min read
I can say the same thing about Cronje. I have been outspoken in the past about things he did wrong, but I cannot understate how much he has done right. He's also a natural born pump (and dump) machine.

Can't pump without dump.
Nov 30, 2020 • 4 tweets • 2 min read
This has been my view on gold since November 9 and the Pfizer vaccine news. I'm long - added to my longer term position today. Expect market to soon start trading increased Fed easing to come on December 16, driving the dollar lower. Also longed silver. Same analysis applies. This is a big picture play, with stops 8% lower => outside the noise. More likely to exit if the macro changes and proves me wrong than hitting that stop. I don't expect either, but always possible.