Do you want to make money or do you want to be right?
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Dec 17 • 10 tweets • 2 min read
Some thoughts on mstr not that anyone is asking or cares what I think
But how I think it inevitably plays out but remember being early is same thing as being wrong
1. Currently there is no reason to think anything with mstr changes, there’s robust demand to buy mstr over nav in size to keep selling shares and buying btc with proceeds. There’s no near term deadline for any debt he’s sitting pretty there’s only one relevant variable
May 4 • 15 tweets • 3 min read
Liquid crypto is probably the single biggest untapped investable segment for crypto funds and represents a huge opportunity that will almost certainly get no inflows couple thoughts why and how it feeds into VC outsizing and general animosity from wider market
1. Important to define what I mean as liquid here im going to define it as funds trading/investing in already liquid names where the assets aren’t encumbered as opposed to venture which for the most part is defined by illiquid positions sometimes with a mark but not actionable
Dec 1, 2022 • 5 tweets • 1 min read
1. Boomers buy GBTC in their 401ks 2. Rolling GBTC balloons in popularity (crowded) 3. Market rallies from stimmy/halving 4. GBTC goes discount 5. Seasoning GBTC is trapped and underwater 6. Lending desks and funds dont shrink or cut losses and push out risk curve, some to luna
7. Luna grows massively and raises big round begins to diversify treasury 8. Buys a yard of BTC with UST from Genesis 9. Genesis pukes UST and knocks off peg 10. Funds and desks puke and bank run UST 11. Luna DIES 12. 3ac DIES 13. Funds begin to DIE drag down entire market
