Conks 🥷 Profile picture
Financial market mechanics/musings. Male. Monetary plumbooor. SOFR maxi. Too many avocations. Not financial advice. “Epic thread” — @michaeljburry
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May 25 39 tweets 10 min read
The Great Sovereign Debt Intervention is here, with leaders now eager to prevent rising instability in America's bond market. Their tools, however, will not only prevent a calamity but stimulate risk assets without the aid of central banks. The "Treasury QE" era awaits us... 1/ After we warned last year about the growing dangers in the most systemically important market globally, America's sovereign bond market, monetary leaders have begun to react. The unintended consequences of past policies, regulations, and interventions can no longer be ignored...
Apr 29 41 tweets 11 min read
The banking panic is almost over, yet the Fed has already resumed the Great Financial Tightening. This will not only induce another credit crunch but boost the Fed’s global presence. The Jaws of the Fed™ are about to be unleashed... 1/ The GFC (Great Financial Crisis) of 2007/08 transformed the global monetary system forever. Monetary leaders, along with financial giants, sculpted a new paradigm in which the U.S. empire would absorb any systemic risk, especially when it threatened the status quo...
Mar 30 41 tweets 12 min read
The Great Financial Tightening has thrown the global monetary system into disarray, prompting large interventions by financial leaders. Markets perceived their response as a pivot, but it was just a stopgap. The real hard landing now awaits us... 1/ Ever since the great financial crisis in 2008, the system has been sculpted not by sound pre-planning of monetary policy, but by a series of experiments created during a myriad of crises. The response to the latest banking panic was just a taster of the Fed's financial alchemy...
Mar 19 43 tweets 9 min read
An unreported battle has been brewing deep in the most critical market globally, a struggle for power within America's sovereign debt market. Now, after recent events, this battle is approaching its most critical moment... 1/ In December last year, Concoda warned about the rising hazards in the largest, yet most obscure, money market. An estimated $2 trillion or more in dollar loans had built up in the shadows, growing to become the most significant part of the repo market...
Feb 26 44 tweets 11 min read
After the most euphoric January in recent history, hopes of a new bull market have arisen. But the latest market bonanza has set the stage for increased intervention. The Great Financial Tightening™ is about to begin... 1/ After a disastrous end to 2022 for risk assets, where tax-loss selling and worsening economic data fueled a sharp market selloff, the start to 2023 couldn't be more different. Buoyant economic data, enormous liquidity injections, and bullish narratives drove an epic meltup...
Feb 6 47 tweets 12 min read
The most critical shift in finance has been playing out behind the scenes: The power to price trillions of dollars in financial assets, once held by bankers, is almost in the hands of the Federal Reserve. Now, its powers are set to increase... 1/ A lengthy attempt to eradicate risk from the global financial system, by both monetary authorities and major financial actors, is approaching its climax. What began as a panic reaction to the 2008 subprime crisis has transformed the way financial entities do business...
Jan 18 50 tweets 12 min read
Fears of another liquidity crisis have entered the mainstream, with many people guessing what will cause the next financial upheaval. Right now, all triggers have been suppressed, but not for long. The Great Liquidity Squeeze™ is upon us... 1/ 2022 was believed to be the year when an enormous unwinding of central bank liquidity would produce another round of financial armageddon. But it never came. Instead, the response from monetary leaders over the COVID market meltdown more than prevented economic ruin...
Dec 18, 2022 49 tweets 12 min read
The Federal Reserve has initiated the ultimate rug pull, but trillions in excess liquidity has stemmed any major turmoil. Yet eventually, the Fed will not only need to intervene but expand its operations globally to preserve the status quo... 1/ It became clear during the COVID market meltdown in early 2020 that the Fed's dominance over global markets was not only going to prevail but prosper. As one of the most epic financial panics in history unfolded, the world's insatiable demand for U.S. dollars exposed itself...
Dec 5, 2022 8 tweets 2 min read
Dec 5, 2022 51 tweets 12 min read
Markets continue to tumble as liquidity wanes, but trillions of dollars remain in the system, preventing unrest in stocks and credit markets. Instead, major turmoil is more likely to emerge in America's sovereign bond market... 1/ After reaching levels not seen since the COVID market meltdown, Treasury market volatility has somewhat subsided. But we're not out of the woods just yet. Further rate hikes from the Federal Reserve could expose the underlying rot in the most important bond market globally... Image
Nov 15, 2022 4 tweets 2 min read
This was common knowledge a year ago among those who did 10 minutes of due diligence on FTX executives. These are guys are not gonna like how Tether’s lawyer was director of compliance of Excapsa, Ultimate Bet’s parent company, at the same time. This is also common knowledge, but of course it won't matter until Tether implodes. Image