Short answer: Nonstop, simultaneous, year-round worldwide demand & production + procurement limits is the main reason why I opted for a standard 10,000. 1/45
Long answer: 10/K a day is an abstract guesstimate. It doesn't have any particular mathematical rigor to it. But it wasn't arbitrarily arrived at. I thought long & hard before settling on it. 2/45
Oct 19, 2020 • 22 tweets • 4 min read
That's the problem with the worldview here. National quarantining is just an idea. Not a concrete logistical consideration. How many people who take international holidays can afford an added two weeks of quarantine at their own cost? They'll need to get used to the idea. 1/20
Or maybe the state should pay for those two weeks in food & accommodation for every person who wishes to travel internationally? What a sterling use of taxation resources. Much better than them being spent on anything to do with health! Easy enough an idea to get used to? 2/20
Oct 18, 2020 • 11 tweets • 3 min read
Completely agree, @CapitalRojas. In reality, this virus is so extraordinarily clearcut in its at-risk demographics that developing a vaccine & applying it to the vulnerable reduces it as a threat to nearly nil. Full immunization does not need to occur to "go back to normal." 1/11
Countries like Australia & New Zealand & Japan & South Korea are applauded for their countercontagion success. But it's for this very reason - their success - that an eventual reckoning with the reality of this pandemic may well be, for these nations, the bitterest of all. 1/9
The hardest thing for people in the years ahead will be coming to terms with the fact that all their sacrifice to "stop" this pandemic has been futile. Even when C19 is "under control", the cases keep limping along & the virus will not get to zero & stay there. 2/9
Oct 16, 2020 • 9 tweets • 2 min read
They're shameless so they'll likely try to claim this shows the "Rule of Six" works. A quick refresher, then, that it was announced on Sept 9 & imposed on September 14. The case rate of the elderly actually remains flat up to the survey of Sept 9. 1/9
The next survey - on Sept 21 - finds that the daily positive results actually *grew* since the implementation of the Rule, only dipping down for the first time in the week prior to October 8. Let's now compare to the total case picture. 2/9
Sep 24, 2020 • 31 tweets • 6 min read
Notice the entirely EpiSci-standard language @gregggonsalves uses here. "Trying"/"adoption": making prevention a social norm through free will is core to it. It's very attuned to the futility/self-defeatingness of coercion. This is the exact opposite of the C19 response. 1/
Let's map equivalents to HIV of C19 "no big asks". Mandatory masking = mandatory prophylaxis. Mandatory social distancing/self-isolation = association/sex bans on those with HIV. Endemic punitive adherence surveillance = test-and-trace of all associates of known HIV cases. 2/
