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Newsom Myālgía MD, PhD (formerly Virál) Profile picture
Newsom Myālgía MD, PhD (formerly Virál)
@contrarian4data
MD practiced 20+ years, PhD in statistical computing & optimization. Anon to protect my family. Animal welfare. Walk gently on this planet. Yes, I’m vax’d 🙄
newkid58 Profile picture Kim Profile picture Liv Campbell Profile picture 3 subscribed
Feb 15, 2023 • 4 tweets • 3 min read
1/n
This is not responsible speculation ... and not physiologically precise.

We caused harm and increased deaths at home through policy.

In 2020, we saw a nationwide 34% drop in ED visits with a 13% rise in CV mortality. https://epicresearch.org/ar... 2/n
Post-infection cardiovascular events occur in many infection events. A hypothesized role has been in place for ~100 years.

Like other viruses, COVID can cause "thrombotic microangiopathy". This isn't large vessel clots.(sciencedirect.com/science/articl…) https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.go...
Aug 12, 2022 • 7 tweets • 3 min read
1/n

Walk down memory lane with me.

It took >1y for the @CDCgov to change guidance.

Meanwhile, colleagues lost jobs, some required letters from me, nurses were banned from eating in the nursing lounge, children/families were harassed, and @GavinNewsom required boosters. "But they couldn't have known ..."

No, that's wrong.

Jul 16, 2022 • 5 tweets • 3 min read
1/5
Nobody ever cites relative-risk reduction without also citing absolute-risk reduction while being transparent and intellectually honest.

There is no doubt that this claim is either a data-crime or intentional obfuscation. 2/5
How do I know?

Multiple studies in process or under review show risk reduction by 3+ doses falling down to 2 doses, controlling for prior-infection, within 90 days. Can't share those.

But we can look at a nationwide NEJM study from Qatar:
nejm.org/doi/full/10.10… https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMoa2203965
May 6, 2022 • 32 tweets • 12 min read
🧵 1/n

Quantitatively review a national test and vaccine provider’s ongoing test positivity data.

Sources: Walgreen’s, 2020 US Census, Our World in Data

Yes, I’m embarrassed that @Walgreens has more comprehensive testing data than the @CDCgov, but that’s not my fault. All proportions are a 3d moving average.

Without any age considerations, is Walgreen’s testing over-sampling a particular cohort?

We start with age cohort vaccination rates from the CDC:
Apr 17, 2022 • 6 tweets • 2 min read
🧵

Very important piece from Paul Offit: not because of what it says, but because of who wrote it.

If you don’t know who he is, search first, then read.

nejm.org/doi/full/10.10… He points out 3 important issues that many of us have been concerned about and pointing out for quite a while.

1) contrary to fraudulent claims, the vaccines were never trialed to stop transmission and claims to this fell apart quickly. Search my TL for a year plus on this.
Apr 8, 2022 • 7 tweets • 4 min read
Embarrassing to @NYTScience, @Nature, @verified.

Some of us have been saying this for 2 years and taking heat from uninformed "verified experts" on this site.

They ignored a high quality Lancet pub 9/2020.

They ignored emerging data from testing platforms.

"The Experts"™️ https://www.thelancet.com/j...Image Just a couple of examples to follow.

Here's a @CNN "Expert"

Mar 25, 2022 • 13 tweets • 6 min read
It's good public health to promote good science communication and effective vaccination policy .@DrPanMD.

However, as has been the pattern with you, this tweet and your bills before the California legislature do not fall into that category.

🧵 "natural immunity is clearly rubbish" per .@DrPanMD.

No, that's not what the authors found -- at all.

Even if neutralizing antibody titers were the end all of our immune response and memory (suppresses chuckle), the authors said titers were high in those with prior infection.
Mar 8, 2022 • 7 tweets • 3 min read
🧵1/n

Just a quick limited comparative world tour of the USA, New Zealand, Denmark, and Iceland with respect to cumulative deaths, cases, vaccination/boosters.

This is to piggy-back on this thread about mandates:

2/n
It builds on a nice December 2021 Danish household transmission survey of Omicron.

The situation evolved very quickly after the study:

Feb 23, 2022 • 9 tweets • 6 min read
1/n 🧵

Let go of archaic notions of "unvaccinated vs vaccinated".

Seroprevalence (vaccinated + PI) was > 95% -- and that's pre-Omicron.

Correct terminology: naive vs non-naive

.@DrPanMD .@GavinNewsom: please pay attention. 2/n
This is a fantastic comprehensive Danish take on early Omicron affairs from 12/9/21 to 12/21/21:
medrxiv.org/content/10.110…

Denmark has:
💠 amazing sequencing data
💠 low pre-Omicron infection burden
💠 high data transparency
💠 shown a commitment to total harm reduction
Nov 30, 2021 • 10 tweets • 5 min read
1/n
Yes, it’s fascinating we’re still debating masking …

… because it’s brutally obvious that the RWE confirms the majority of what’s in the literature pre and post COVID.

Let’s review quality evidence we knew and what we’ve learned. 2/n
Household (meaning high transmission location) surgical mask and hand hygiene RCTs in Hong Kong and Bangkok showed no effect in 2008/11.

Influenza has ~same virion size and household SAR.
Oct 27, 2021 • 5 tweets • 3 min read
1/n
The biggest problem with this man is that it's not clear if he knows what he is talking about ... even tho he speaks with declarative certainty.

We have some evolving data, and he is not responding to it when he launches into conversations that create division and demonize. 2/n
The Alaska DPH provided a quality report through August. While both infections and hospitalizations are attenuated by vaccination, the trends are clear.

By August '21, 33.6% of infections and 19% of hospitalizations are "breakthroughs".

I haven't seen a more recent report https://dhss.alaska.gov/dph/epi/id/siteassets/pages/HumanCoVhttps://dhss.alaska.gov/dph/epi/id/siteassets/pages/HumanCoVhttps://dhss.alaska.gov/dph/epi/id/siteassets/pages/HumanCoV
Aug 26, 2021 • 15 tweets • 7 min read
🧵

1/
It's getting exhausting, but, once again, if you have clinical context, you understand data, and you know how to analyze that data, you can be ahead of the media and politicized "experts" in understanding the situation on the ground.

cnn.com/2021/08/26/hea… 2/
I brought this up almost 4 weeks ago and called out a couple of politicized experts in the process (got blocked by one 🤷):

Aug 23, 2021 • 8 tweets • 6 min read
1/n
A short 🧵for folks terrified by this post.

When "Big SM Docs™️" post something like the QT, they aren effectively telling you that they:

1) Don't see kids at volume or kids with C19

3) Don't know coinfection rates are kids >> adults (50% vs. 20%):
pediatrics.aappublications.org/content/146/1/… 2/n

(cont)

4) Don't know that that the RSV surge is global and continues to accelerate. From 3 weeks ago:


5) Don't know the Sun Belt states peaked at >65% positivity rate (crazy). Also from 3 weeks ago:
Syndromic Trendshttps://wwwnc.cdc.gov/eid/article/27/11/21-1565_articlehttps://wwwnc.cdc.gov/eid/article/27/11/21-1565-f1
Aug 13, 2021 • 13 tweets • 4 min read
1/n 🧵

I usually stick to numerical threads, but this one's mostly about toxic social dynamics and C19.

The emerging mandate conversation is about hubris, tribalism, and ideology trumping data and personal agency.

QT: "This the only way to get vaccines up" 2/n
February 2020, I told friends and family that society would segregate over this issue and that it would transcend party lines.

I saw outsized irrational fear and an intelligentsia (now an oxymoron) feeding that fear ... because they were afraid and/or highly political.
Aug 12, 2021 • 7 tweets • 4 min read
1/n
The QT is a really bad take.

They may as well rage about people confusing RSV and microchips.

Nobody with a brain is conflating 2 genetically distinct viruses.

What people with brains, *clinical experience*, and a reasonable evidence review are saying so far: 2/n
1) RSV PCR positivity spiked above 50% in many Sun Belt states in July

2) The rise in US Pediatric hospitalizations is in the 0-4yo age group which is where RSV can hit hard

3) COVID-19 has an overwhelmingly benign course in kids including w/ Delta per UK and Indian data
Aug 3, 2021 • 15 tweets • 9 min read
1/n
🧵 about RSV, COVID, and grifting

Social media grift in the name of “public health” begins anew on the eve of school openings.

The expected July-Aug Sun Belt surge coincided with “Delta” => good times for politicized fear porn.

But there’s more to the story… 2/n
Delta has been the dominant strain in many states since June.

The quoted doctor claims no pre-existing condition in half (debateable) implying something new afoot.

Yet the UK did not see a spike in Pediatric disease, or general virulence, with its now waning Delta wave:
Jul 14, 2021 • 9 tweets • 4 min read
1/n
Interesting take, because I'm sick of people being triggered by arithmetic, cost-benefit analysis, and conflating CFR/IFR.

Facts:

1) ~330 Pediatric deaths over 17 months with a +SCoV2 test through 7/14/21

2) We've had 27M Pediatric infections through 4/14/21 https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid_weekly/index.htm#Sehttps://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/cases-updates/burd 2/n
Facts (cont):

3) 65 Pediatric C19 deaths were +SCoV2 with pneumonia. An additional 37 were from MIS-C.

4) ~40% of Pediatric C19 deaths are not due to C19
(35% in US review & 59% in UK review)

5) Makes sense as ~30-40% of Influenza is asymptomatic
ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/P… https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid_weekly/index.htm#Sehttps://www.cdc.gov/mis/cases/index.htmlhttps://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/70/wr/mm7014e2.htm?s_cid=mmhttps://www.researchsquare.com/article/rs-689684/v1
Jul 1, 2021 • 30 tweets • 16 min read
1/
This is a numerical & narrative thread looking at the relationship between NPI (mandate) stringency and state level COVID outcomes in the USA.

Contents:
1) discuss motivation
2) present methods and sources
3) present results and implications 2

Motivation:

NPIs are disruptive. Nowhere in life do we entertain harm unless there is potential benefit. We are 16 months into this and have completed a full "epidemic cycle". We are in a period of COVID-19 quiescence nationally.

It's a good time to examine the results.
Jun 16, 2021 • 17 tweets • 6 min read
1/n
I will be discussing this paper (along with a recent contribution) in an upcoming thread, but it highlights the importance of system level thinking over analyzing an intervention in isolation:

ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/P… 2/n
"In Hong Kong and Bangkok during 2008–2011, large randomized controlled trials were conducted to investigate the efficacy of surgical face masks and enhanced hand hygiene in reducing transmission of influenza in households."
May 24, 2021 • 27 tweets • 11 min read
This is a thread discussing Pediatric COVID-19 vaccination.

Contents:

1) Detailed review of Vaccine Adverse Events Reporting System (VAERS) for the 16yo-17yo age group
wonder.cdc.gov/vaers.html

2) Examine Pediatric mortality estimates & compare to adverse event rate

1/n Contents (cont):

3) Review the # of patients required to assess efficacy & safety in the <18yo population

4) Review "# needed to treat" (NNT) & "# needed to harm" (NNH)

5) Extend discussion to "# needed to vaccinate" (NNV) & possible limitations of this concept

2/n
May 15, 2021 • 5 tweets • 2 min read
The quoted thread, applies to all aspects of COVID policy.

One can’t discuss the limitations of archaic compartmental models, subtleties of inferential statistics, & computational modeling under uncertainty to incurious, social-credit seeking politicized acolytes. People do not realize how numerically naive the medical establishment, & life science in general, is & has always been.

Add politics to the mix, & it becomes a potent mix of tribalism & misinformed morality.

I went silent when my current family got drawn in w/ repeated doxxing.