🗳️🇨🇴 Invamer just published Colombia Opina #21. Read the headlines and you'd think Cepeda has this election locked 🐾

he leads first round at 44%, he wins every simulated second round, and the trendline since 2024 favors him. That's the story Caracol and BluRadio are selling tonight.

The actual data inside the 60-page report tells a very different story. Once you stop reading the cross-tabs the way the pollster wants you to read them, the picture flips. Time to talk methodology, because this is where Invamer's structural bias becomes visible.

The technical sheet reports a non-response rate of 72.50%!!!! LOL 😂

For every four doors the surveyors knocked, three people refused to participate. Treat that number as the single most important piece of metadata in the entire document 💩. Everything else flows from it.

At a 72.5% refusal rate, the 3,800 published respondents do not constitute a random cross-section of Colombian voters, they are a self-selected pool of people willing to invite a stranger into their home and answer political questions in person, and that pool has predictable demographic and political tilts

The voters most likely to decline an in-home interview of that length are working-age professionals with time constraints, men in their 30s and 40s, urban dwellers with privacy concerns, and voters who distrust the mainstream media outlets funding the survey. Those are exactly the segments where Paloma and Abelardo over-perform.

ISO 20252 certification doesn't fix this problem. It just documents that the bias is being introduced in compliance with the standard.

🇨🇴🗳️Someone asked me: 'Why avoid mentioning Petro? Trump mentioned Biden constantly and won 🐾 Let me explain 🧵

Fair point. But look at what Trump actually said. Not 'Biden is corrupt.' He said 'Sleepy Joe.' He made him look incompetent, not criminal. Visual. Simple. Devastating. That's the difference Abelardo (and Paloma) calls Petro a criminal and a bandit. Publicly. Repeatedly.

Here's the problem: Petro's base doesn't believe that. They never will. Calling him a criminal doesn't peel away a single vote. It fires up his base. It makes Petro look powerful and persecuted. It turns him into a martyr and keeps him relevant.

🇨🇴🗳️ 25 corruption scandals so far in Petro's government. Cepeda still at 30%+. The entire Colombian opposition still doesn't get it. 🐾

A new Petro corruption scandal broke today.

@NoticiasCaracol revealed that Colombia's intelligence chief held secret meetings with the lawyer of the country's top smuggling kingpin, offering him judicial benefits he had no authority to grant. etc etc etc The opposition will spend a week on this. It won't move a single vote. Here's why. 🧵" This is scandal #25+ for a government that came to power promising to end corruption. Cepeda is still polling above 30% and trading at 45 cents on Polymarket. The market isn't broken. The opposition's strategy is.

Corruption scandals don't move ideologically aligned voters. A Petrista could watch Petro confess on live television and still vote for Cepeda. This is not irrationality. It's identity politics. The corruption argument only reaches people already against them

🇨🇴🗳️ Colombia presidential election thread: April🧵

I am a Polymarket trader with active positions in this market. Long Paloma YES, long Abelardo YES, short Cepeda via NO. Disclosing upfront. First of all:

One thing is already settled: no candidate wins in the first round. Polymarket is giving a bond bet trading it at 13 cents.

Market: []polymarket.com/event/will-any…