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Chris Warshaw Profile picture
Chris Warshaw
@cwarshaw
Professor @Georgetown's @McCourtSchool of Public Policy. Focus on political representation & elections. Co-Author: Dynamic Democracy, PlanScore, & TrueViews.
Nov 14, 2022 • 16 tweets • 11 min read
Dynamic Democracy is officially out today! In this book, @DevinCaughey and I show that state governments respond incrementally to public demands, with the effect that most state policies eventually fall into alignment with public opinion. (1/n) press.uchicago.edu/ucp/books/book… We think that American democracy is far from perfect, and responsiveness can be painfully slow and halting, but over the long term the public exerts a powerful influence over government policies. (2/n)
Sep 6, 2022 • 5 tweets • 2 min read
Our paper "Moderates" is out in FirstView in the @apsrjournal. We show that many Americans hold genuinely moderate policy positions. These voters are especially consequential for electoral selection and accountability. In this paper, we develop a new measurement model to distinguish people having genuinely moderate views across issues, being inattentive to politics or political surveys, or holding views poorly summarized by a single liberal–conservative dimension.
May 12, 2021 • 4 tweets • 1 min read
Really enjoying listening to @joshclinton discuss the @AAPOR Task Force's preliminary findings on the performance of polls in the 2020 election. Unlike in 2016, polling errors not driven by education weighting, late deciders, or likely voter models. The report strongly suggests partisan non-response within demographic strata is driving polling errors. Also could be partisan non-response concentrated among new-voters.
May 11, 2021 • 5 tweets • 3 min read
Excited to attend my first AAPOR conference. @jon_m_rob, @johnmsides, & I are presenting on link between ballot initiatives and poll-based estimates of public opinion. We think this both validates polls & shows important gaps between polls/initiatives. dropbox.com/s/zn2uf6kyv8id… We paired estimates from dynamic-MRP models of issue opinions with 200 ballot initiative results in 11 areas, including marijuana, min. wage, same-sex marriage & guns. We found a strong correlation between mass opinion and initiatives at both global level and within most topics.
Apr 30, 2021 • 6 tweets • 3 min read
In a new working paper, @ellliottt, @matteopins, @sergallet, and I examine the role of Fox News Channel on U.S. Elections. We show that Fox has helped Republican candidates in elections across levels of U.S. government over the past decade. papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cf… To approximate a natural experiment where some counties are randomly exposed to more Fox News, we focus on variation in the channel number -- i.e., when it has a lower number (e.g. 20), people watch Fox more often than when it has a higher channel number (e.g. 80).
Nov 4, 2020 • 6 tweets • 2 min read
Some quick high-level thoughts on the election:
1) WTF happened with the polls. This is a serious issue for our democracy that scholars across social sciences should work on addressing. Polls provide crucial information about the public's preferences and we need to get it right. 2) Elections are nationalizing (ht @dhopkins1776). But still lots of spread btw Pres/Downballot in some states - ME, MT, KS, NH, etc. Suggests moderation & candidate quality still net a few percentage points on margin. Just not enough for Dems to win in places like KS.