PhD candidate @MIT. Previously trained @IITKgp. Interested in nuclear weapons, India’s foreign policy and national security, cricket, and Hindi/Urdu poetry.
Oct 11, 2022 • 10 tweets • 2 min read
Today, both Penny Wong and S Jaishankar were asked if the inconsistency in positions between India and the rest of the Quad on Russia creating problems for the Quad. Both the foreign ministers replied in the negative. A small thread 1/10 foreignminister.gov.au/minister/penny…
India is the novelty in the Quad. Australia was a US ally long before the emergence of China threat. It will mostly remain a US ally if the China threat magically disappears tomorrow. The roots of US-Australia alliance lie in identity & history of ties with the UK. 2/10
Oct 5, 2022 • 20 tweets • 4 min read
A thread 🧵 on India-US relations. Last few weeks/months have been puzzling. Americans-- the govt less than strategic community-- have been surprised over the extent of divergence between India and the US over Russian invasion of Ukraine. 1/20
Indians thought America's last excuse for its bewildering Pakistan embrace ended with the exit from Afghanistan. Now, we are finding that that is not so-- Pakistan's role has reduced in US calculus but it is still not completely a matter of the past. 2/20
Feb 25, 2022 • 13 tweets • 3 min read
A thread on Indian position on Russian invasion of Ukraine. Why it is not a puzzle and actually eminently defensible. First, the near-term pragmatism: presence of thousands of Indian students in Ukraine. 1/n
We saw this in Yemen. Good relations with both parties in the conflict, and especially the aggressor, helped in the evacuation of Indian citizens. If required, India would try to leverage its relationship with Russia to do the same. 2/n
Sep 1, 2021 • 13 tweets • 3 min read
I am trying to avoid commenting on Afghanistan to the extent possible but the shallow level in which India's foreign policy public discourse is trapped has forced me to write this thread. 1/n
The newest debate, adding to a range of shallow ones in the past, is: Should India engage with Taliban or not? Remember the previous ones? Should India talk to Pakistan? Should India play cricket with Pakistan? Should we boycott Chinese goods? 2/n
Jul 27, 2021 • 16 tweets • 4 min read
Ideally, I should write a longer piece but I won't have the bandwidth anytime soon, so I’d just do a thread here. The question I am trying to answer is: What is India’s evolving approach to the threat of China in the light of two big crises in recent years—Doklam & Ladakh? 1/16
To be clear, I am not trying to answer the question: What should be India’s approach? My answer to the “what is” question is in three parts. First, India’s response is characterized by military restraint. 2/16
Jul 12, 2021 • 10 tweets • 3 min read
.@RRajagopalanJNU raises an important distinction between adventurous academic debates and cautious political realities. This is an excellent point. With the current state of technology, BMD is unlikely to offers massive first strike advantage against large rivals like China. 1/n
DPRK is another matter. Political leaders are generally cautious when it comes to nuclear weapons because of several reasons. First, self-interest: There is no guarantee that first strike +BMD will prevent retaliation on one's homeland. Second, massive civilian casualties. 2/n
Feb 3, 2021 • 5 tweets • 1 min read
Just a week or so back, I heard Ram Guha and Shashi Tharoor say that India needs a leader like Rahane. Someone who is not all about 'I, me, myself'-- they said. What happened? Did he become a coward in 10 days? Did Rahane become a Modi bhakt in 10 days? 1/4
This tweet by Rahane-- & by scores of other India's big celebs-- is simply the nationalism of India's ordinary folks. This is why I chose Rahane and not other big-earning celebrities. Rahane helps us understand the perspective of the ordinary Indian much better than other celebs.
Jan 19, 2021 • 8 tweets • 2 min read
Some thoughts on CAATSA and India. If India doesn't get a waiver, it might be a significant setback to India-US relations. India has been sanctioned before by the US for its nuclear tests. 1/8
If significant sanctions are imposed again, India will conclude that irrespective of how good India-US relations are, the US ends up implementing punitive measure as and when it wants. 2/8
Nov 6, 2020 • 13 tweets • 4 min read
Okay, this is an important point. And deserves some deliberation. Should India allow postal ballots to everyone, not just armed forces? My answer is: No, it shouldn't. Thread. 1/n
In India, the line between legislature and executive is very murky. I am not just talking of stuff like MPLADs, MLALADS,
and Sansad Adarsh Gram Yojana, which allow legislators to perform executive roles. In fact, these schemes/funds/policies are problematic in themselves. 2/n
Aug 19, 2020 • 12 tweets • 3 min read
The recent Israel-UAE agreement has prompted some people in Pakistan to suggest that Islamabad too should normalize its ties with the Jewish state. As if the decision can be taken so easily. A short THREAD: 1/n
This is tangentially related to one of my current projects, so I am offering my opinion. Conclusion: The difference between the UAE and Pakistan is in their respective abilities to keep the Islamists and clergy in check. 2/n
Aug 4, 2020 • 9 tweets • 2 min read
A quick THREAD on Modi the politician. One particular aspect of his politics is to convert what his opponents deem to be his weakness into his strengths. This is becoming a consistent theme in his politics. 1/n
The recent breathless coverage of Rafale's delivery to India could have been just a drama by overzealous media houses. However, the defence minister Rajnath Singh also joined the game. He too started tweeting on the arrival of the five Rafale planes. 2/n
Jul 31, 2020 • 21 tweets • 7 min read
Let me do a THREAD that weaves multiple topics together-- leadership, India-China border crisis, strategic culture, and the role of structural factors. Warning: this might become a bit wonk-ish and probably a bit abstract.
This response by @swarajk224 was a trigger in some way for this thread but I will come to it later
For now, let us start with this Byman and Pollack paper where they criticize the tendency of IR scholars to ignore the role of personalities.
Jul 5, 2020 • 8 tweets • 3 min read
Look at the Chinese claim on Bhutanese territory in the eastern sector. This was a dormant claim that has now been activated. It is NOT a boundary dispute anymore. China essentially WANTS A SHARE IN BHUTAN.
Early thoughts. The reactivation of these claims might have to do something with India's road and rail construction in the northeast. The pic from an @ajaishukla article (ajaishukla.blogspot.com/2018/12/brahma…) shows 5 bridges on Brahmaputra and Lohit rivers.
Jun 28, 2020 • 6 tweets • 2 min read
Many claims are being made on the back of this but I hope people understand that it merely shows a *correlation* between Ladakh becoming UT and Sept 11, 2019 event. It doesn't even show correlation, forget causation, b/w May 2020 events and the UT status indianexpress.com/article/india/…
Now let's come to the morality of the issue. The people of Ladakh had been demanding UT status for a very long time. In a *democracy*, people's demands are considered seriously and, if possible, they are granted. China doesn't get it but scholars/analysts should. Stop justifying.
Jun 17, 2020 • 8 tweets • 2 min read
There is no joy in saying that I was right because the pain of the deaths on the LAC is overwhelming. But it must be said that the story of no PLA troops on Indian soil was never adding up. When I and others pointed that out, we got heavily trolled and even abused.
The government tried to obfuscate believing that transparency will harm the negotiations. But Rajnath Singh hinted that the problem was big, deep and involved territory. The govt supporters were in complete denial mode.
Jun 6, 2020 • 31 tweets • 5 min read
There are two broad aspects of uncertainties on what is happening on the India-China border: A) the current situation on the ground (is the PLA on Indian side of the LAC or not?); & B) what does China want? (A thread)
In this thread, I aim to try to discuss the different possibilities to examine the likelihood of what is happening. Let's start with A. Ajai Shukla and most other reporters, and some veterans like Lt Gen Panag are saying that PLA is sitting on the Indian side of the LAC.
Dec 25, 2019 • 23 tweets • 4 min read
Want to say something on Indian politics generally. So much has already been written about the trends in Indian and Western media. But I have two very fundamental points that I think are not often appreciated. Thread...
First, I think this fight is India's and Indians alone have to fight it. The involvement of Western audience isn't necessarily helpful in this fight. I have constantly said one thing: foreign element is more likely to weaken this fight than strengthen it.
