Bitcoin & Gold

Gold leads, Bitcoin follows.

Same pattern for years

> Cycle structure #1
> Cycle structure #2
> Parabolic move

Let's dive deeper into the Gold/Bitcoin correlation First of all, if we zoom out and forget about dates, time frames, and the exact shape of these moves,

We can clearly spot a correlation between Gold and Bitcoin, exactly the same structures:

> Cycle structure 1
> Cycle structure 2 (higher)
> Erupting into a massive parabolic move

If we dive deeper into the timing between these two assets (which we'll do now), you can see that Bitcoin constantly lags behind but eventually catches up once Gold slows.

Taking Profit

Euphoria is coming, but nobody tells you how not to round-trip profit

1. Introduction
2. Tips
3. My strategy

Read along 👇 (1/5)
1. Introduction

Now you are still calm, but if the market keeps following last cycle's pattern, we’ll soon hit a short but explosive mania.

Many here still pray the cycle isn’t over, scared to enter or hold, but soon they’ll be euphoria-struck.

In the first 90% of the cycle, everyone fears dips and the end. But in the last 5–10%, euphoria flips it: people suddenly believe it’ll never end, that a new paradigm started.

Huge gains will be made fast, but without a plan, most will get lost in euphoria and roundtrip profits back to entry or worse.

I’ll continue with some tips and things I’ve learned from past cycles, and finish with how I form my plan.

Hopefully, it inspires you to make your own plan and secure it this time.

Content overview!

We've been on point since April.

Here are 13 of my higher-quality write-ups from the past 2 weeks, all written educationally.

1. Bitcoin top & Profit taking
2. My Favorite Setup
3. Market Outlook
4. Altcoin Bull Thread & The Risk
5. Will all Altcoins pump?
6. ENA Trade idea
7. CRV Trade idea
8. The Super Cycle & The dollar
9. Market Outlook & Profit Taking
10. Reasons to be bullish on Altcoins
11. Ethereum top?
12. Pullbacks soon?
13. Ethereum targets?

Feel free to bookmark or share if you think it brings some value! 🙏 1. Bitcoin top & Profit taking

https://x.com/damskotrades/status/1943620080211783855

4 reasons I'm bullish on Altcoins

(yes, bullish propaganda)

(1/4)👇 1. Market timing

We’re over 1000 days into the bull cycle now, and usually the part that’s pure terror for 95% of altcoins. Bitcoin pumps, dominance pumps with it, and ALTBTC pairs get wrecked for years.

At some point, people lose hope and think nobody will bid alts this cycle. They rotate back into Bitcoin.

That’s usually the peak frustration point for altcoins, which happens every cycle.

It often lines up with Bitcoin breaking into new highs and starting its first consolidation phase.

That first consolidation after the breakout is marked by the red circle.

But when that consolidation breaks to the upside and Bitcoin starts its second leg, historically, something magical happens:
> Bitcoin dominance starts to drop.

That’s exactly where we are now, and BTC dominance is already showing signs of weakness.

Market Outlook

1. Bitcoin
2. Super cycle
3. Altszn
4. Profit taking

⚠️ This product contains bull propaganda. A highly addictive substance. 1. Bitcoin

Let's start with daddy bitcoin. I'll be splitting this up into a part for our regular 4-year cycle and a part for the looming super cycle.

// Time:
Bitcoin is currently roughly 1340 days into the 4-year cycle, which usually takes roughly around 1435-1480 days.

// Structure:
- Market structure: The price action is still bullish.
- Local price action: We just broke out of a 250-day-old range. Usually these breakouts, as long as its valid, don't top after one week and one candle.
- Cycle structure: If we look at the cycle structure, we are clearly in stage 5 of the cycle. We broke into new highs as always, and we printed the first swing leg up into ATHs, had the usual consolidation, and are now starting our second swing leg up.

Historically, this is the leg that leads us into a cycle top.

Also, we are approaching our parabolic 4-year cycle resistance line, which is hard to 'exactly' draw, but I'd see it sitting in the 125k-140k zone. It also depends on when we arrive at that line.

Many see the charts rip and freeze.

''I missed it again''

I’ll show and explain my favorite setup.

Used it on SOL at $30 and HYPE at $14

1. How to use it
2. Some Altcoin examples

(1/9) 👇 (bookmark it → it's gonna be a good one)

1. How to use it

To use it, we first need to get the core principles it’s based on.

Don’t worry, no 32 indicators or confusing patterns as the art is keeping it as simple as possible.

Let's go over the two core principles of this setup:

/ Ranges

Prices, on all time frames, spend probably 70% of the time in a range.

Spotting and understanding ranges will improve your ability to identify setups, entries, and invalidations.

> What is a range?
A non-trending market where price moves between two zones.

At the zones, you can draw a range high and low. Price bounces between these two levels until we get a breakout, and the market becomes trending again.

Market outlook

/ The best is yet to come

1. Bitcoin
2. Altcoins

(1/7)👇 Some quick notes before unleashing a dirty amount of bullish propaganda:

/ It’s late in the cycle. Risk here is different than earlier. Position accordingly.

/ My fiat → crypto transfers happened early 2023.

/ I’ve already taken some out.

/ Even though I think the last part will be the best, your focus should be on scaling out, not leveraging into more and more exposure once things get crazy (countering the human emotions)

Okay, let’s dive into the bullish stuff.

Spotting the outliers

Been in and adding to HYPE since $12, and it outperformed most of the market.

1. Spotting outperformers
2. Mistake #1
3. List of Altcoins and sectors I'm watching now

The altcoin space will get increasingly diluted, and catching the outperformers takes time and effort.

Let's dive in...👇 The dilution.

2017 vs Today

2017 was easy.

There were only a couple of chains, and most of the volume wasn't even on-chain. There were maybe 1 or 2 relevant centralized exchanges, a couple for low caps, and that was it.

The options for money to flow into were so limited that you could throw a few darts on the board and make a lot of money.

Currently, it's a different story.

We have countless different chains and ecosystems. We have countless centralized exchanges, and since everyone (and their wives) are tokenizing themselves, the amount of tokens (and nfts) is in the millions.

There's just a certain amount of attention and money in the market, and it's not enough to 'pump everything'.

Altseason?
Sometimes I get tired of the people discussing 'there won't be an altseason anymore' because of the abovementioned reasons.

I think there will still be an altseason, I think that people have different meanings of 'altseason'.

Altseason doesn't mean 'everything goes x10' anymore.

Altseason, in my book, means Bitcoin dominance trending down.

And that will, imo, still exist.

In 2021, the market already got more diluted. Meta has become more important, and you had to position yourself in the right spot.

And big surprise, 2024/2025 it's even more diluted, as we continue the trend we started in 2017.

To catch the stronger performers, you have to put in the time and effort to catch them.

Things are finally lining up for Altcoin outperformance later in the cycle.

1. Last part of the cycle
2. Ethereum
3. Total Altcoin marketcap
4. Alt vs BTC

(1/6) 👇 1. Last part of the cycle

- Historically, Altcoins have outperformed only in the last 10% of the cycle.

In the initial 1000 days of the cycle, it's mainly Bitcoin, while Altcoins suffer and get rekt.

Peak altcoin frustration always hit when Bitcoin chopped after its first push to ATH.

You can see that Bitcoin dominance only dumps in the last part of the cycle, once Bitcoin breaks out of this first ATH consolidation into new highs.

The best time to make a take-profit plan is now.

Trust the calm version of you.

Not the euphoric one.

(love this clip from Gainzy; if you make money as a degenerate, at your peak, you will still be a degenerate.)

1/8 👇(lets make a plan) > Intro.
> Mindset and habits.
> Take profit based on where we are in the cycle.
> Take profit based on token performance.
> How to keep your profits.
> Plan (example)

Many Altcoins are forming the setup that made me catch BTC at $30K and SOL at $30.

1 - How to use it
2 - 10 Altcoin examples

👇 Range price action: A non-trending market where price moves between two zones.

You want to trade the extremes for the best risk-reward.

Entry technique: Range low reclaim set up.
1. Mark out the range.
2. We are looking for a market trap at the range low where the price trades below the range.
3. We wait for the price to reclaim the range low.

Stop saying you're sidelined.

Many asked, “What Bitcoin dip are you watching?”

Here's how I'm entering Altcoin swing longs: 👇

https://twitter.com/damskotrades/status/1921297831840621006

Index thread:

> Are things just starting?
> Positioning and plan
> Bitcoin and market
> How I'm buying the dip
> Few Altcoin examples

Becoming hilariously bearish to cope with losses is real.

Markets have multiple scenarios.

One is very bullish for Altcoins.

But... if you're deep in a bear sabbatical, you won’t act if things turn — and they can turn fast.

What am I looking for 👇

(1/10) Post-index

Why I’m excited & what I’m watching for.

1. Introduction
2. Bitcoin and Altcoin cycle correlation
3. More things lining up?
4. Ethereum
5. Total market caps
6. Solana

Market outlook

I have been observing the chaos of Crypto Twitter.

People on different timeframes yelling at each other about whether it’s over or not.

Let’s check out the markets.

1. Bitcoin
2. Altcoins
3. My plan

👇 Introduction
Markets move in cycle structures, often following the same 5 stages:

1. Bull – Price moves up parabolically with higher highs and higher lows.
2. Bear – Sharp move down with lower highs and lower lows.
3. Accumulation – The steep downtrend slows down and transitions into a sideways range with more equal highs and lows. After a painful drop, markets often need time to heal before trending again.
4. Disbelief – A first breakout from the accumulation range. This is the first higher high and the early sign of a trend reversal.
5. Bull – Price moves up parabolically with higher highs and higher lows.

Very important for the rest of this thread:
Markets follow this cycle on all timeframes. You’ll see this pattern on macro charts (like the 4-year crypto cycle) but also inside those larger cycles — on weekly, daily, or even intraday charts.

Market outlook

1. The cycle
2. BTC vs ALTS
3. Medium time frame
4. My plan

1/9 🧵 1. Higher time frame cycle

> The HTF bull structure is still intact
> Still following previous cycle patterns
> 28% correction so far
> Nothing we haven't seen before; the previous cycle's first consolidation periods AFTER the first leg into new highs also had severe dips. In 2017, we crashed 39%, and in 2021, we had a 30% dip.

"No QE, no Altseason."

Lately, my comments are full of these:

"We need QE for Altseason."
"Altseason never starts without QE."

Let’s take a look.👇 This isn’t usually my thing, but I’ll take a look since my comments are flooded with QE talk.

(Note: Not an expert. Feel free to correct me. Keeping it simple, sticking to charts—no speculation. Take it with a grain of salt.)

QE & QT?

1. QE (Quantitative Easing):
- Central banks create new money
- Inject it into the market by buying assets
- More liquidity = good for risk assets

2. QT (Quantitative Tightening):
- Central banks reduce money supply
- Withdraw liquidity by selling assets or letting them mature
- Less liquidity = bad for risk assets

I’m not diving into the pumpdotfun debate, but the chart makes it seem like their launch started the downtrend in Altcoin market share (relative to BTC).

> It was already in the middle of a downtrend.
> This downtrend happens every cycle

BTC bottoms, runs to old highs, and prints its first leg into new highs: during this, altcoin market share drops every cycle.

Last cycle, it was also down 75% at this exact stage. It was also the stage of peak Altcoin desperation, and people were calling for 'no altseason' this cycle.

Usually, altcoin dominance only increases once BTC begins its second leg up. That said, the market is getting tougher—more metas, more altcoins, more chains.

Not everything goes up anymore.

Yes, the market is harder now, and pumpdotfun doesn’t make it easier.

But no, imo the altcoin market share decline isn’t caused by pumpdotfun—it’s a pattern we see at this stage every cycle.

Bitcoin is still at the resistance level, but it's good to map out some things in case she breaks above.

Main interest:
> Memes
> AI
> Solana eco
> DeFi // Trump tokens

Let's start with a couple of memes, and we'll cover other sectors later.

https://twitter.com/damskotrades/status/1880949859227767269

1. MEMES

When we get the continuation of this cycle, I'll still bet heavily on memes simply because

> Outperformed all of 2024
> Trump launched a meme coin
> DOGE chart looks ready
> Potential meme ETF in 2025?

Let's start with some meme coin charts.

The most parabolic part of the cycle

// Time for Altcoins to shine?

1. What cycle stage?
2. Favorite Altcoin setup.
3. Altcoin sectors I'm watching.
4. Profit taking

Let's dive in because I think it's almost time! 👇 1. What cycle stage?

> Bitcoin

1. Usual cycle roughly 1400 days -> Currently almost 1200 days in.

2. 5 cycle stages -> Clearly, in stage 5, the parabolic final part of the cycle.

3. The first swing into new highs is done and is currently in the usual chop after. Usually, we have one more big swing up after this one.

How big this last swing will be depends on whether or not the diminishing returns resistance will hold on. Check previous posts on my timeline for more info about the diminishing returns line and how it could change every dynamic of our cycle.

Regardless of the size of that swing, we're entering the last stage and swing of this cycle for Bitcoin.

The good news is that this is where Altseason historically happens.

The cycle dynamics haven’t changed since forever.

But I think it'll end. (soon)

Impacting:
> 4-year cycle
> Altseason
> Supercycle (but not like most expect)

Let's dive in:
1. Why I think it'll change
2. What I'm looking for this cycle

👇 > The current Cycle as we know it

// Cycle pattern:
Stage 1: Bull
Stage 2: Bear
Stage 3: Accumulation (deviation below range low)
Stage 4: Disbelief (range reclaim and higher high)
Stage 5: Bull (new highs)

// Range low reclaim

// Roughly 4 years between tops

Mega Altseason Educational Thread

Recap of all important posts of the last 2 weeks. 👇 1. Favorite Altcoin Long Setup
2. Will all tokens hit their old highs?
3. Basic concept Ranges and Cycles.
4. Using the Cycle structure
5. Profit-Taking
6. Early or Late?
7. Diminishing returns, supercycle and Altcoins
8. Copying others
9. How bull markets move.
10. Utility or memes only?
11. When Altseason?