Spotting the outliers

Been in and adding to HYPE since $12, and it outperformed most of the market.

1. Spotting outperformers
2. Mistake #1
3. List of Altcoins and sectors I'm watching now

The altcoin space will get increasingly diluted, and catching the outperformers takes time and effort.

Let's dive in...👇 The dilution.

2017 vs Today

2017 was easy.

There were only a couple of chains, and most of the volume wasn't even on-chain. There were maybe 1 or 2 relevant centralized exchanges, a couple for low caps, and that was it.

The options for money to flow into were so limited that you could throw a few darts on the board and make a lot of money.

Currently, it's a different story.

We have countless different chains and ecosystems. We have countless centralized exchanges, and since everyone (and their wives) are tokenizing themselves, the amount of tokens (and nfts) is in the millions.

There's just a certain amount of attention and money in the market, and it's not enough to 'pump everything'.

Altseason?
Sometimes I get tired of the people discussing 'there won't be an altseason anymore' because of the abovementioned reasons.

I think there will still be an altseason, I think that people have different meanings of 'altseason'.

Altseason doesn't mean 'everything goes x10' anymore.

Altseason, in my book, means Bitcoin dominance trending down.

And that will, imo, still exist.

In 2021, the market already got more diluted. Meta has become more important, and you had to position yourself in the right spot.

And big surprise, 2024/2025 it's even more diluted, as we continue the trend we started in 2017.

To catch the stronger performers, you have to put in the time and effort to catch them.

Things are finally lining up for Altcoin outperformance later in the cycle.

1. Last part of the cycle
2. Ethereum
3. Total Altcoin marketcap
4. Alt vs BTC

(1/6) 👇 1. Last part of the cycle

- Historically, Altcoins have outperformed only in the last 10% of the cycle.

In the initial 1000 days of the cycle, it's mainly Bitcoin, while Altcoins suffer and get rekt.

Peak altcoin frustration always hit when Bitcoin chopped after its first push to ATH.

You can see that Bitcoin dominance only dumps in the last part of the cycle, once Bitcoin breaks out of this first ATH consolidation into new highs.

The best time to make a take-profit plan is now.

Trust the calm version of you.

Not the euphoric one.

(love this clip from Gainzy; if you make money as a degenerate, at your peak, you will still be a degenerate.)

1/8 👇(lets make a plan) > Intro.
> Mindset and habits.
> Take profit based on where we are in the cycle.
> Take profit based on token performance.
> How to keep your profits.
> Plan (example)

Many Altcoins are forming the setup that made me catch BTC at $30K and SOL at $30.

1 - How to use it
2 - 10 Altcoin examples

👇 Range price action: A non-trending market where price moves between two zones.

You want to trade the extremes for the best risk-reward.

Entry technique: Range low reclaim set up.
1. Mark out the range.
2. We are looking for a market trap at the range low where the price trades below the range.
3. We wait for the price to reclaim the range low.

Stop saying you're sidelined.

Many asked, “What Bitcoin dip are you watching?”

Here's how I'm entering Altcoin swing longs: 👇

https://twitter.com/damskotrades/status/1921297831840621006

Index thread:

> Are things just starting?
> Positioning and plan
> Bitcoin and market
> How I'm buying the dip
> Few Altcoin examples

Becoming hilariously bearish to cope with losses is real.

Markets have multiple scenarios.

One is very bullish for Altcoins.

But... if you're deep in a bear sabbatical, you won’t act if things turn — and they can turn fast.

What am I looking for 👇

(1/10) Post-index

Why I’m excited & what I’m watching for.

1. Introduction
2. Bitcoin and Altcoin cycle correlation
3. More things lining up?
4. Ethereum
5. Total market caps
6. Solana

Market outlook

I have been observing the chaos of Crypto Twitter.

People on different timeframes yelling at each other about whether it’s over or not.

Let’s check out the markets.

1. Bitcoin
2. Altcoins
3. My plan

👇 Introduction
Markets move in cycle structures, often following the same 5 stages:

1. Bull – Price moves up parabolically with higher highs and higher lows.
2. Bear – Sharp move down with lower highs and lower lows.
3. Accumulation – The steep downtrend slows down and transitions into a sideways range with more equal highs and lows. After a painful drop, markets often need time to heal before trending again.
4. Disbelief – A first breakout from the accumulation range. This is the first higher high and the early sign of a trend reversal.
5. Bull – Price moves up parabolically with higher highs and higher lows.

Very important for the rest of this thread:
Markets follow this cycle on all timeframes. You’ll see this pattern on macro charts (like the 4-year crypto cycle) but also inside those larger cycles — on weekly, daily, or even intraday charts.

Market outlook

1. The cycle
2. BTC vs ALTS
3. Medium time frame
4. My plan

1/9 🧵 1. Higher time frame cycle

> The HTF bull structure is still intact
> Still following previous cycle patterns
> 28% correction so far
> Nothing we haven't seen before; the previous cycle's first consolidation periods AFTER the first leg into new highs also had severe dips. In 2017, we crashed 39%, and in 2021, we had a 30% dip.

"No QE, no Altseason."

Lately, my comments are full of these:

"We need QE for Altseason."
"Altseason never starts without QE."

Let’s take a look.👇 This isn’t usually my thing, but I’ll take a look since my comments are flooded with QE talk.

(Note: Not an expert. Feel free to correct me. Keeping it simple, sticking to charts—no speculation. Take it with a grain of salt.)

QE & QT?

1. QE (Quantitative Easing):
- Central banks create new money
- Inject it into the market by buying assets
- More liquidity = good for risk assets

2. QT (Quantitative Tightening):
- Central banks reduce money supply
- Withdraw liquidity by selling assets or letting them mature
- Less liquidity = bad for risk assets

I’m not diving into the pumpdotfun debate, but the chart makes it seem like their launch started the downtrend in Altcoin market share (relative to BTC).

> It was already in the middle of a downtrend.
> This downtrend happens every cycle

BTC bottoms, runs to old highs, and prints its first leg into new highs: during this, altcoin market share drops every cycle.

Last cycle, it was also down 75% at this exact stage. It was also the stage of peak Altcoin desperation, and people were calling for 'no altseason' this cycle.

Usually, altcoin dominance only increases once BTC begins its second leg up. That said, the market is getting tougher—more metas, more altcoins, more chains.

Not everything goes up anymore.

Yes, the market is harder now, and pumpdotfun doesn’t make it easier.

But no, imo the altcoin market share decline isn’t caused by pumpdotfun—it’s a pattern we see at this stage every cycle.

Bitcoin is still at the resistance level, but it's good to map out some things in case she breaks above.

Main interest:
> Memes
> AI
> Solana eco
> DeFi // Trump tokens

Let's start with a couple of memes, and we'll cover other sectors later.

https://twitter.com/damskotrades/status/1880949859227767269

1. MEMES

When we get the continuation of this cycle, I'll still bet heavily on memes simply because

> Outperformed all of 2024
> Trump launched a meme coin
> DOGE chart looks ready
> Potential meme ETF in 2025?

Let's start with some meme coin charts.

The most parabolic part of the cycle

// Time for Altcoins to shine?

1. What cycle stage?
2. Favorite Altcoin setup.
3. Altcoin sectors I'm watching.
4. Profit taking

Let's dive in because I think it's almost time! 👇 1. What cycle stage?

> Bitcoin

1. Usual cycle roughly 1400 days -> Currently almost 1200 days in.

2. 5 cycle stages -> Clearly, in stage 5, the parabolic final part of the cycle.

3. The first swing into new highs is done and is currently in the usual chop after. Usually, we have one more big swing up after this one.

How big this last swing will be depends on whether or not the diminishing returns resistance will hold on. Check previous posts on my timeline for more info about the diminishing returns line and how it could change every dynamic of our cycle.

Regardless of the size of that swing, we're entering the last stage and swing of this cycle for Bitcoin.

The good news is that this is where Altseason historically happens.

The cycle dynamics haven’t changed since forever.

But I think it'll end. (soon)

Impacting:
> 4-year cycle
> Altseason
> Supercycle (but not like most expect)

Let's dive in:
1. Why I think it'll change
2. What I'm looking for this cycle

👇 > The current Cycle as we know it

// Cycle pattern:
Stage 1: Bull
Stage 2: Bear
Stage 3: Accumulation (deviation below range low)
Stage 4: Disbelief (range reclaim and higher high)
Stage 5: Bull (new highs)

// Range low reclaim

// Roughly 4 years between tops

Mega Altseason Educational Thread

Recap of all important posts of the last 2 weeks. 👇 1. Favorite Altcoin Long Setup
2. Will all tokens hit their old highs?
3. Basic concept Ranges and Cycles.
4. Using the Cycle structure
5. Profit-Taking
6. Early or Late?
7. Diminishing returns, supercycle and Altcoins
8. Copying others
9. How bull markets move.
10. Utility or memes only?
11. When Altseason?

Altseason

1) Only memes, or also utility tokens?
2) Spotting other hot sections.
3) Altcoin sections I'm watching.

Sector positioning is key—not everything pumps anymore.

Read with me 👇🫡 Starting with a short, simple intro so everyone can follow:

Cycle concept

Every asset follows a cycle—Crypto is no different:

Bear (stage 2): lower lows/highs
Accumulation (stage 3): equal lows/highs
Disbelief (stage 4): first higher high
Bull (stage 5): higher highs/lows

Look for a bottom in stage 3, or enter assets in stages 4 and 5—when prices go up.

Altcoins.

1. When Altseason?
2. Are you too late?
3. Tips to get in if you are sidelined.
4. 10 Altcoin setups

Read along: 👇✍️ 1. When Altseason?

I think soon. Let's walk through a couple of things.

1.1 The cycle can be divided into two parts

Part 1: Bitcoin runs, and Altcoins bleed (dominance pumps)

Part 2: Bitcoin breaks into new highs, and Altcoins start their parabolic phase

You can see it more clearly below.

It made us accumulate Altcoins while the Total Altcoin market cap was at the range lows.

I do think they will make, just like Bitcoin; new highs.

Part 2 has begun!

More info here: x.com/damskotrades/s…

Altseason.

1. The best part is coming
2. The Risks
3. Profit taking?

Read with me 👇 1. The best part is coming

Every asset class follows similar cycles and range price action.

After the bear market, it flattens below the range, reclaims it, and forms a higher high with a market structure break.

A higher low follows, leading to a parabolic bull run toward the range high and into price discovery.

-- --
In Crypto there's also a certain money flow:

1. Bitcoin pumps and gets people's attention on Crypto again. Bitcoin leads the bull market and will hit the range high first, while most Altcoins initially bleed against Bitcoin.

2. Altcoins: While Bitcoin rallies to the range high, they lose 'Bitcoin value' as dominance pumps but gain some USD value as Bitcoin lifts the market. They’re forming the higher high and reclaiming the range low.

3. After Bitcoin’s new highs: Altcoins start to rally. Total 3 market cap (all top 100 alts minus BTC/ETH) follows, led by majors like XRP, SOL, and ETH as the money flow shifts.

4. The money basket grows in BTC, ETH, Ripple, and other majors.

5. 'Others': All altcoins outside the top 10 lag the most. Once BTC and majors come to a certain high stage, profits and new money flow into this sector, fueling their move.

These are the Altcoins most of you guys are holding, mid- and low-caps, which is why, in my opinion, the best is yet to come.

Total Altcoin Marketcap; $500B -> $1T 🎉

For 8 months, I've publicly shared that I was accumulating altcoins at the range lows in stage 4.

People were salty.

We’ve gone vertically to range highs.

People are still salty.

More Altcoins market thoughts below: 👇 By buying the range lows, I was making 3 bets:

Bet 1. The range low reclaim setup:

The setup is simple:
1. Altcoins fail to hold the range low
2. Altcoins reclaim the range low
3. Altcoins print and pump a higher high (march top)
4. Altcoins retest the range zone to print a higher low (recently)

As you can see, it played out; we had months to enter the range low zone and are now closing into the range high zone. The risk/reward is already super different here.

Altseason!?

1. Every four years, Bitcoin hits new highs.

2. shortly after, the total altcoin market usually shoots up vertically.

Let’s go over some strong-looking Altcoins!👇

(10 altcoins below) To understand where Altcoins are in their cycle and to filter out the better-looking ones, I'm using:

1. Ranges:
- Form a bias: Range-low reclaim setup targets the range high.
- Use the key levels to determine a good entry
- Use the range to determine risk

2. Cycle stages
- Every cycle has five stages
- Stage 4 is the market structure shift to bullish
- Stage 5 is the bull market
- Not all stages are worth holding you want to jump in either in stage 3 at the bottom (use ranges to find the best entry), or in stage 4 and 5 where prices have a high probability of going parabolic.

Cycles are everywhere and will apply to most tradable assets.

Mix the ranges (+ range low reclaim pattern) with the cycle structure to get a clear setup, an indication of what to expect, and where to step in.

As I've said before, cycle patterns appear on any timeframe. Recently, within the weekly cycle structure, a mini-cycle has formed during the past 8-9 months of correction.

You can now: A) Identify the macro range and cycle stage to gauge strength and market interest. B) Use the mini-cycle structure to time your entry.

Here, with our $DOGE play, it's clear how we used the macro range and cycle structure: A) Identified macro cycle stage 4. B) Identified price sitting at a key range level after a range low reclaim setup. C) Used the 8-month mini-cycle on the lower timeframe to time the entry when it reached stage 4.

The macro range low reclaim, disbelief stage 4 on the HTF, and the lower time frame mini cycle broke up. The lower time frame mini cycle transitioned into the higher time frame cycle stage 5 -> parabolic price action.

Memes versus Utility tokens

I think we’re at a pivotal point in this cycle.

My view:
1. Thoughts
2. Charts
3. Historical market trends 👇
4. How I am positioned 1. The limits of speculation.

There's only a certain amount of pull for speculative ideas, money, and people available before it peaks.

While there is room for meme coins and interest in speculative new meme coin ideas (look at the pump fun's success and volume), the market might have hit its limits for a while, and we need a cooling-off period.

After a steady uptrend in interest and speculation on newly created decentralized token ideas, we've seen extreme spikes in the past few days.

Volume, the number of tokens created, new addresses, and fees spiked extremely hard.

Hypes die or local top with blow-off tops tending to spike after an extended uptrend.

Chart Requests

I’ll chart 10 of the top-requested ones below.

Tomorrow, we will do 10 new ones.

Drop your Altcoin tickers below! 👇 1. $CROWN

It looks good; the steep downtrend shifted to equal highs and lows, likely in Stage 3/accumulation.

Buy a sweep of the lows or a reclaim of the range low to enter Stage 4.