Head of Net Zero @institutegc.
Previously Heat and Buildings Strategy @beisgovuk.
Views my own.
Oct 21, 2022 • 12 tweets • 4 min read
NEW BLOG
Earlier in the week I wrote about the challenges of targeting energy bill support by April.
But what else could government do to reduce the fiscal burden? It's time to take a hard look at price incentives.
A thread...
institute.global/policy/price-r…2. Tuesday's blog set out gov's options to reduce the costs of energy bill support through targeting.
Conclusion: it has few real options. Can save ~£10bn by reducing payments for non-benefit recipients; or tax back payments from wealthy hhlds.
For all the excitement about targeting, the real options are extremely limited... a thread (1/13)
bit.ly/3VzuwSl1. First point to remember is that govt announced it's Energy Price Guarantee to do two things: 1) keep households protected from devastating bills to stay warm and safe 2) protect the economy from the catastrophic recession that would follow.
Oct 12, 2022 • 16 tweets • 3 min read
Big move from government to bring forward legislation to cap prices we pay for renewable and nuclear energy.
We’ve been calling for action on this for some time.
Some (14!) thoughts…
bbc.co.uk/news/uk-632240…1. In all but name, this looks like a windfall tax. Suspect that line to be used to claim a u-turn.
We’ll need to see details of consultation but probably that is right. Key is where the excess revenues (above cap) go. If they go to HMT, it’s a tax. Even if then redistributed.
Sep 19, 2022 • 12 tweets • 3 min read
Very interesting to see low carbon electricity generators starting to turn in favour of a windfall tax.
Could put team Truss in a very awkward position given the hard line she has taken on it.
What’s it about and what should gov do? 🧵
thetimes.co.uk/article/power-…1. This suggests govt is taking quite an aggressive or at least impatient position on negotiating new contracts.
If gov was taking a laissez-fairs “name your price” approach to “voluntary” contracts, I’m not convinced we’d see these sorts of briefings.
That’s encouraging…
Aug 14, 2022 • 12 tweets • 3 min read
Quite a big idea here from industry.
But is it any good?
It’s probably how the Labour plan to freeze prices at current level would need to work in practise… a few thoughts…
That govt helps set up a “bailout fund” into which banks pour lots of money for energy suppliers to borrow.
Suppliers use that money to buy expensive energy for us without needing to charge us for it… yet!
Aug 11, 2022 • 6 tweets • 2 min read
£5000
Gov has to grip this immediately but also long term.
There are only two ways out of this for a country hooked on more gas than it can produce itself…
1. Do everything possible to get off gas asap. 2. Hope for the best.
Can we try 1. Now pls?
ft.com/content/048c02…
Obviously has to start with a massive new support package. But not just for this winter. For as long as prices remain unaffordable.
Households that can’t pay this winter are not suddenly going to be able to pay next winter. Or the one after that.
The conservative leadership race has seen candidates flirt with dropping or delaying net zero. The leaders maintain they support it but have more to say about action they'd cut than action they'd take.
Aug 9, 2022 • 5 tweets • 2 min read
Thought:
"Typical household will pay"... they won't though, will they? Most can't or won't. So are we planning for a collapse in demand?
If suppliers already purchased 90% of expected demand through forward contracts... what happens if people can't afford to buy it?
Demand could fall fast.
Some people don't heat at all. Some cut back 30% by turning thermostat right down and minimise appliance use. Some carry on regardless.
Frankly, if a recession starts to bite could be more demand destruction than that.
Jul 14, 2022 • 15 tweets • 4 min read
@CSkidmoreUK and @paulwaugh wrote yesterday that a lot of candidates for PM are promising to ditch green levies, introduce a moratorium or move them to general taxation.
Is it possible? Is it bad for climate? Could it even be good? The answers, as ever, lie in the detail...🧵
1. What are these Green Levies?
Welcome to acronym-ville. The "policy costs" quite unhelpfully bundled into a single line by @ofgem and often quoted as "green" cover a range of policies. Some green, some social, some a mix of both.
institute.global/policy/net-zer…1. As the Tory leadership race hots up, net zero is being treated as potential red meat for conservative members and right wing MPs. Braverman & Badenoch are against it, others are oddly silent, none are promising action following @theCCCuk's damning progress report.
Jun 29, 2022 • 9 tweets • 4 min read
The @theCCCuk 2022 progress report is out. Headlines:
- Govt has set some good targets and high level vision for net zero is helpful;
- But only 39% of emissions savings needed by 2030s have credible plan (cheat sheet below!);
- Won't achieve net zero.
So what is going on?🧵 1. Some progress.
Start with the positives. Renewable electricity policy is lauded as having shown the way things can be done. We agree, as @PhillMcNally sets out below.
The adoption of electric vehicles is also moving faster than expected.
⚠️ We use twice as much as we produce
⚠️ We're abnormally dependent on it to stay warm
⚠️ We've got to stop using it for net zero
⚠️ We simply can't afford it
Apr 5, 2022 • 7 tweets • 3 min read
Looking increasingly like #energystrategy will be silent on demand reduction.
Having spent years in gov negotiating for stronger action on this, a few thoughts as to what they might be thinking, and why they're wrong...
bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politi…1. "We don't need a thermostat campaign, public will turn down anyway to save money"
Wrong. People who can't afford to stay warm will turn down more than is healthy. People who can, generally won't. As @ACJSissons pointed out yesterday, overall price elasticity very low.
