Dan Sabbagh Profile picture
Journalist @guardian Defence + security editor Focused on 🇺🇦 right now Want to reach me in confidence? DM for Signal, Proton etc
May 17, 2023 4 tweets 1 min read
Ukraine's forces are broadly ready to start a counter offensive says a Western official, speaking on condition of anonymity. Key point is the "cognitive effect" any attack has on the Kremlin. It is "more important, arguably than cleaving through Russian lines" they add What does success look like for 🇺🇦? Ukrainians have to be "able to show that they are having momentum" + it has to be "more than piecemeal penny packets of forces going forward" the official said. So, perhaps (and this is my inference) threatening to reach Sea of Azov...
Mar 17, 2023 6 tweets 1 min read
Russia is sustaining "1200, 1300 even 1500" casualties a day in its current offensive, mostly in Bakhmut. Killed to wounded ratio is one to three - senior Nato official, speaking on condition of anonymity. Ukraine is taking "an order of magnitude less" - no figure given - in fighting where "several thousand" shells a day have been consumed on both sides
Feb 14, 2023 4 tweets 1 min read
A dispatch from the southern Donbas frontline with sensational pix from @EdR4m - how Ukraine's drones are helping defeat the Russians around the town of Vuhledar. If it is the start of the Russian spring offensive, it has been a disaster...

theguardian.com/world/2023/feb… A front line commander says they have yet to see any impact from Elon Musk's Starlink edict, but if it affects recon drones, then Ukrainian forces will be in trouble. They are, he says, simply a "magic wand" for the defenders