Getting many questions today concerning the UN’s announcement about global population now at 8B. Most answers are here. 1/n

Empty Planet: The Shock of Global Population Decline: 9780771050909: Books - Amazon.ca amazon.ca/Empty-Planet-G… There’s a very good chance this will be last time UN announces a new billion in the world. If we continue on same path, global population will peak mid-century somewhere less than 9B and start to decline. 2/n

A few thoughts on how public opinion tends to evolve when it comes to events like those taking place in Ottawa. While there’s much elite conversation in media (both traditional and social) about why and who, as this drags on, for the public, it increasingly turns to what. 1/n The “what” is maintenance of public order. For public, responsibility for maintaining order sits exclusively with the incumbent government. Sure, they expect other players to respect be responsible, but they hold the government to account for performance 2/n

Here’s where we are now in the election. Follow along with this string for some thoughts. An election that was supposed to be an opportunity for Trudeau and the LPC to score a quick majority has turned now into a fight for survival. 1/n It goes back to when, why election was called. For significant number of voters who give LPC good grades for managing the pandemic the cynicism communicated by the election call was a bridge too far. This has persisted as the most powerful motivator since campaign started. 2/n

Since we are about to mark global population day, a few tweets on the facts of what’s happening to the size and structure of humanity. If you’re interested in this topic check out Empty Planet, written by @JohnIbbitson and me. 1/n The world’s population is NOT growing out of control. We will not reach the UN’s projection of 10.9B. We will be hard pressed to make it to 8.5B by mid century before we start to decline. By 2100 the global population could even be smaller than it is today. 2/m

There is much to admire about how LPC rebooted itself between Iggy and Trudeau. The lessons apply to any party, not just CPC. Follow along and I’ll explain what I mean 1/n Looked at it as revitalization of not just leadership but also what it would mean to be modern Liberal in Canada. Canvassed academy, think tanks, world for new progressive ideas. Platform reflected this work. It was as much manifesto as campaign document. 2/n

What happened in Ontario? Follow along. It wasn’t about Ford. This was an electorally decisive group of Ontarians deciding they wanted fundamental change of govt direction. What happens when govt moves too far away from electorally viable public consensus. Saying this was just about changing a tired govt that had run out of steam is also wrong. Lots of steam that moved it too far away from what Ontarians outside of 416 wanted. A fresh govt that continues down the same track would run into the same problem.

NDP on the rise in Ontario. Up 6pts in a week to trail the PCs by only 5pts now. Why? NDP now seen by progressives as best option to stop Ford. Can they catch the PCs? Possibly. Libs may not have hit bottom yet. Lib defectors going mostly NDP. What do the Ford PCs have going for them? They lead in most regions, by 20pts in 905. Also, PCs have the most committed, motivated, habitual voters of all the parties. In a low turnout election, this could make the difference.