Managing Partner, Energy Company. Engineer, MBA; USC, CSU, & Stanford
Dec 21 • 4 tweets • 3 min read
The Physics of Price: Rigorous Mathematical Proof of a $600k Bitcoin Super-Cycle
The decade-long Bitcoin narrative of a rigid “4-year halving cycle” is mathematically dead.
Markets assumed price peaks arrived like clockwork every four years. That belief is now the main source of inefficiency.
LPPL analysis shows Bitcoin no longer follows simple time-based cycles. The structure has evolved.
The data is clear: this is not a cycle top. It is early-stage accumulation ahead of a much longer and more violent expansion.
1. The statistical kill shot: AIC scores
In quantitative modeling, the Akaike Information Criterion (AIC) is the final arbiter. It measures fit while penalizing complexity. Lower is better.
Fixed 4-Year Cycle AIC: −6,384.4
LPPL (dynamic) model AIC: −7,508.6
Verdict: LPPL outperforms the 4-year cycle by 1,124 AIC points. That is a statistical landslide.
Conclusion: forcing Bitcoin into a rigid 3.6–4-year box is wrong. The cycles are not fixed. They are expanding.
2. Age-doubling physics
The LPPL model solves for “omega,” the frequency of market oscillations.
In physics, age-doubling (logarithmic time dilation) is a universal pattern seen in earthquakes, material failure, and complex systems. It implies cycles lengthen as systems mature.
Bitcoin’s measured omega: 8.897.
This is the smoking gun. Bitcoin’s market rhythm is slowing exactly as age-doubling predicts. Each cycle takes longer than the last. Cycles are expanding, not repeating on a fixed schedule.
Why this is bullish: the market expects a late-2025 peak because of the 4-year myth. When that peak and crash fail to appear, cycle-based fear collapses. That vacuum supports a multi-year advance, not a short blow-off.
The coiled spring: current mispricing
As of December 21, 2025, risk is severely mispriced.
Actual price: $88,480
Model trend value: $124,492
Deviation: −29%
This is not euphoria. It is disbelief. Price is 29% below the long-term logarithmic trend while sentiment is focused on a nonexistent top. This is a classic coil: neutral pinning with asymmetric upside.
The roadmap to ~$600k (2026–2029)
With age-doubling in effect, the cycle does not peak in 2025. The LPPL projects a much longer expansion.
Forecast:
2026: The market accepts that the “crash” isn’t coming. Price gravitates toward the mean (~$220k).
2027–2028: Euphoria emerges as the extended-cycle thesis becomes consensus.
July 2029: True cycle peak.
Summary
The 4-year cycle worked in Bitcoin’s infancy. It is now statistically disproven. The market is pricing a premature top, creating a 29% discount to fair value.
Smart money isn’t trading the halving. It’s trading the updated and more robust power law.
The math points to a slow, relentless climb toward ~$600k that exhausts short-term traders long before it ends.
Buy and Hold the asset.
@saylor @MicroStrategy @Strategy @cz_binance @LynAldenContact
