No matter what the discussion is on financial media, DO NOT get wrapped up into recession or bear market talk. Bookmark this LONG 🧵so you can follow along during each stage and know whether we are going into a correction or bear market on $SPX or not.

For context, the last bear market we had was in 2007-2008 (Again, a bear market is an extended run BELOW the 200-week SMA no matter how much the decline was). Every pullback occurs in stages. Here's a chart on $SPX during the last bear market that I will use an example

Listening to people talk about inflation is a good reminder that no one knows what they're talking about because we haven't seen growth levels like this in a LONG time. Here's my thoughts in a thread 🧵 with 12 tweets in all posted in the replies: Too many people confuse YoY growth (first chart) and the actual price index itself (second chart). On the second chart, inflation has been on a nice steady trend since the early 80s. This is the first time since then that we've gone parabolic and deviated from the trend...