We asked this to a large sample of nationally representative Americans - blue wins by a 3:1 margin!

https://twitter.com/waitbutwhy/status/2047710215265730755

To close out red/blue button discourse, we polled ~14k people and crosstabbed survey responses by 204 commonly used psychometric questions.

The top four personality questions most predictive of button choice are displayed below

Excited to be on Odd Lots to talk about the politics of AI.

AI today is less important than it will ever be.

Over the past year, AI rose in issue importance faster than any issue we track — it's now more important to voters than climate change, child care, and abortion.

https://twitter.com/TheStalwart/status/2033260388762952152

AI is hitting at a time when 61% of Americans say life has gotten less affordable in the last year, only 25% feel confident in their financial future, and only 34% say they have a secure job.

Not a great starting place for major disruption to the labor market.

Excited to join @ezraklein to talk through what happened in 2024.

There's a turnout story this cycle, but not the one we're used to talking about. With less-engaged and less-likely voters becoming more Republican, a larger turnout meant a more GOP electorate. In November, we saw a swing similar in magnitude to the realignment we saw in 2016: Hispanic, Asian, young voters, and politically disengaged voters swung towards Trump. Trump also made substantial gains among naturalized citizens (about 10% of the electorate).

@semaforben @eriktorenberg The 2010’s featured the biggest swing left in attitudes in high income democracies in decades!

There’s something very different between this moment (where right wing swing globally is concentrated with young people and immigrants) vs the 2010’s when it was the exact opposite. x.com/davidshor/stat… @semaforben @eriktorenberg The big story of post-Covid politics has been the right surging with immigrants, very young people, folks who report not following politics closely.

https://x.com/davidshor/status/1864732324224487734?s=46

Even if he didn’t ask for his ballot back it would have been trivial to find by matching the voter file to federal databases of citizens, which is something that state governments do routinely to find people to prosecute.

Ideally you’d implement the matching on the front end but this is a very easy crime to catch which is why it’s so rare. @RichardHanania We have a good idea of how often this happens because Republican prosecutors are highly incentivized to do the trivial work required to look.

It’s on the order of like 100ish people a year. AFAIK partisanship of the people who do it lean Republican.

@marcushjohnson Obviously a lot here is right - my main response is that it views everything through an America-centric lens in a way that obscures some of the broader dynamics

https://twitter.com/davidshor/status/1464080692762099716

@marcushjohnson One of the big reasons why American political scientists were so slow to understand the education polarization/racial depolarization of the last decade has been been because they’ve wanted to analyze it as a continuation of CRA backlash rather than a global phenomena

@jbouie @elias_isquith @chrislhayes @mattyglesias @zengerle My view is that that there have been massive intra-coalition shifts in power that have empowered very educated and very liberal voters (who are much whiter than the Democratic base) at the expense of everyone else and that this is causing a lot of dysfunction @jbouie @elias_isquith @chrislhayes @mattyglesias @zengerle I hope folks will give that view fair consideration regardless of their personal opinion of Matthew Yglesias.

@papanoel_cool @tidalsoundings @Marinus1804 The country has gotten considerably more educated and secular (and also more cosmopolitan on both social issues even controlling for that). If you had run an Obama-style campaign you would have done better. @papanoel_cool @tidalsoundings @Marinus1804 The basic state of things is that the median voter has moved left in the past ten years and both parties moved left in response, which is why the two way popular vote total was basically unchanged (52.3 vs 52), but leaves us in a much worse place in the senate/EC

@johnmsides @eitanhersh @smotus @MisOfFact @vavreck @MichaelTesler I think there’s a very natural way in which it’s correct that doesn’t warrant the dismissive way it’s been covered by poli-sci Twitter @johnmsides @eitanhersh @smotus @MisOfFact @vavreck @MichaelTesler My main critique of the Musk graph is that it doesn’t capture that Republican elites have substantially moderated on economic issues.

@policytensor What I will say is that if you do any regressions the predictive value of most of those things shrink enormously once you control for education. @policytensor But again, descriptively, racial resentment or conservative views on cosmopolitan-loaded issues are much much more predictive on an individual level than any of these things.

@JakeMGrumbach @laseptiemewilay @mattyglesias I think the cross-sectional finding for Kenosha is pretty compelling - property damage per capita was like an order of magnitude higher than it was anywhere else.

https://twitter.com/gelliottmorris/status/1395376081109192709

@JakeMGrumbach @laseptiemewilay @mattyglesias Generally speaking I [famously :/ ] think that mass non-violent protests are generally electorally beneficial. The Wasow paper obviously is there but the Madestam study was really influential to me as well. I think there are also one or two from Europe.

@MidwestDeplore @DadofDraco @thibald_3141 @yeselson @DavidAstinWalsh @Econ_Marshall @EricLevitz I think the main lesson from history (Micheal Foot in 1983) is that if you don’t bend when the public turns right, you just lose, and discredit your faction within the center left in the process. There’s no honor/long term power built by inviting conservatives to run the country. @MidwestDeplore @DadofDraco @thibald_3141 @yeselson @DavidAstinWalsh @Econ_Marshall @EricLevitz Britain I think really highlights this: Labour refused to moderate after multiple losses and the outcome was that they were almost replaced by an almost-explicitly bourgeois party despite FPTP.