Here are my thoughts on Tuesday night.

Democrats will likely take back the House, though it may be late in the week before we see that for certain.

I have no good feel for the Senate. A lot depends on presidential coattails.

For President, I'll give states to watch.

1/13 There are a group of states that, if they come in early for Harris, would mean an almost certain Harris win at the end of counting.

There are some that, if they are called Tuesday night for Trump, will mean a fascist win, and the end of American democracy as we know it,

2/13

Fascist propaganda is designed to make you lose hope, so you give up and accept fascist rule.

Rightwing trollbots are RIGHT NOW trying to convince you that record early voting numbers mean Trump will win.

Classic.

1/5 For, like, forever, big early voting numbers, and a larger percentage of eligible voters actually voting, has meant Democrats win.

But the trolls want you to think
This Year It's Different
because
Reasons.

They want you to give up. They want to stop GOTV efforts.

2/5

In the D.C. election subversion case, Judge Chutkan gave Trump's lawyers until today to "explore litigation options" to stop release of testimony and data supporting the allegations against Trump.

Trump's lawyers instead filed a motion to delay release of that data.

1/9 Background: Trump asked SCOTUS to rule on whether he was immune to prosecution for actions he took while President. If so, the election subversion case would (he hoped) have to be thrown out.

SCOTUS ruled Presidents are immune to prosecution for "official acts".

2/9

The average age of an American soldier in Vietnam was 19.

61% of the 58,000 Americans who died in that war were under 21.

21 was the voting age in America, until March of 1971, with passage of the 26th Amendment to the US Constitution, which lowered the voting age to 18.

1/5 American boys--children, really--were drafted to fight and kill and die in Vietnam. They had no say in the matter, because they weren't allowed to vote.

Throughout the 1960s, young people protested, pushed, screamed, and took to the streets to force a change in voting age.

2/5

I've noticed, most of the things rightists are against, they can't describe.

They hate CRT and DEI. Also socialism. And Marxism. And affirmative action. And they say climate change is a hoax, and are scared of mRNA vaccines.

1/7 They also don't know how evolution works, and most of them don't know why experts are experts. And LOTS of them hate "democracy" and claim we are a "republic" instead. They also don't know what EPA does, or the Dept of Energy, but they hate those, too.

2/7

In addition to the massive filing that's already been released, Jack Smith has an Appendix, detailing testimony and other documentation he plans to introduce at trial. Smith redacted sensitive information in the Appendix. Judge Chutkin gave Trump until Oct 10, ...

1/4 ... next Thursday, to provide any objections to Smith's redactions.

This was the same order the Judge gave regarding the filing itself; Trump's lawyers were supposed to agree or disagree to the redactions by Oct 1.

They didn't. They simply objected to the filing itself.

2/4

Let me remind you of some of the ways Trump handled Covid, the worst pandemic in a century:

Trump:
* didn't wear a mask
* ridiculed people who did
* discouraged social distancing
* held mass rally superspreader events, indoor and outdoor
* demanded reopening businesses

1/7 * demanded sending children to schools
* blocked production of masks
* blocked production of PPEs
* blocked production of ventilators
* lied about the danger
* stole masks, PPE and ventilators from states
* sold masks, PPE and ventilators to Russia and China

2/7

Judge Chutkin has unsealed Jack Smith's massive filing laying out the arguments and data in the DC Election Subversion case.

You can download it here.
storage.courtlistener.com/recap/gov.usco… Here's the meat of it, on Page 1.

Four years ago, Melania dressed as a cosplay Nazi and gave an illegal campaign speech (a violation of the Hatch Act) from the Rose Garden which she'd spent $60 million to decimate.

1/7 One of these pictures is a photo of a Nazi concentration camp guard. The other woman was, for four years, America's First Lady. She dressed as a Nazi to give a speech with the White House as a background prop that was broadcast live as part of the 2020 Republican Convention.

2/7

I heard pundidiots yesterday debating how Democrats should deal with Trump. Should we dourly remind people how dangerous he is? Or should we mock him?

The bobblehead media sages presented it as a choice, and as a contrast of old vs new.

They're wrong, of course.

1/14 The "old" way, they said, was to dwell on the danger and threat that is Trump, and to acknowledge his power, like a Colossus of Crap, striding confidently over the landscape, something unbeatable and terrifying, who never loses or suffers consequences.

2/14

I've told this story before. It's worth repeating.

(It's not my mythology. But I'm a student of religion and myth and folklore. Aesop's Fables aren't mine either, but there's a lot of good stuff there.)

1/7 ---
There's an old story about two fields, separated by a fence. One field belongs to God, the other to Satan. People are allowed to come and go as they please, and to choose on which field they would stand. Free will.

The fields fill every day, with a new group of people.

2/7

Now that Hunter Biden doesn't matter anymore, Republicans in the House have launched shamvestigations into Kamala Harris and Tim Walz--almost as if the whole Hunter Biden thing was a now-irrelevant political ploy. So they have to find new political ploys.

1/10 The new fake-inquiry into VP Harris is about her work looking into the reasons Central American refugees are fleeing their countries. This didn't matter when Harris was merely Biden's running mate. It does now, since she's the Democratic candidate.

2/10

newrepublic.com/post/184772/ja…

Trivia.
Since 1936, incumbent presidents ran for reelection 15 times:

1936 FDR
1940 FDR
1944 FDR
1948 Truman
1956 Eisenhower
1964 Johnson
1972 Nixon
1976 Ford *
1980 Carter *
1984 Reagan
1992 Bush I *
1996 Clinton
2004 Bush II
2012 Obama
2020 Trump *

* = NOT reelected

1/12 I picked 1936 as the starting year since FDR was the last president who was NOT limited to 2 terms and the only president to get more than 2 terms.

Truman, Johnson and Ford became president when the elected president died in office or resigned. They all ran for reelection.

2/12

People used to say, "Democrats fall in love, but Republicans fall in line," meaning, Democrats need a charismatic leader, but Republicans vote pure party.

Partly true, but the cultish worship of Reagan (previously) and now, Trump, shows Republicans are all about their gods.

1/7 Republicans vote Party, because they expect the Once and Future Savoir will someday appear, the Messiah who will lead them to the Promised Land of white nationalist pseudo-theocracy. They craved the Second Coming of Saint Ronald, until they sampled Orange Outrage Sauce.

2/7

There's no other candidate.
There is no plan for picking a new candidate.
There is no plan for assembling a campaign structure.
There's no plan to get any money.
There's no plan to get names on state ballots.
A new slate will be challenged in all red or purple states.

1/6 Legal challenges will go to SCOTUS.

There is no nationally-known figure to swap in anyway.
Except Harris.
Most people who don't want Biden
--don't want Harris either.
An "open primary" would be a circus
wrapped in a bloodbath.

Voting starts in September.

2/6

In 2002, popular and beloved two-term Minnesota Senator Paul Wellstone ran for reelection to a third term. He died in a tragic plane crash on October 25, 2002, shortly before the election.

Minnesota's Democratic Party scrambled to find a replacement candidate.

1/5 Democrats choose an equally popular and well-respected, well-known former Vice President, Walter Mondale.

Minnesota was considered a purple state then. Mondale was seen as a likely shoe-in.

But Wellstone's death had thrown the party and the campaign into disarray.

2/5

A Few Things that Will Happen if President Biden is NOT Reelected (which means, if you don't vote for Biden, you are voting FOR these things):

* criminalization of abortion
* criminalization of IVF
* criminalization of contraception
* criminalization of LGBTQ

1/8 * end of all climate programs
* end of the EPA
* criminalization of DEI
* end of Dept of Education
* end of Dept of Commerce
* end of Dept of Energy
* weaponization of DOJ to attack Trump's enemies
* end of NATO

2/8

I've been castigated a few times by younger people who disagree with me. That's okay, I can handle disagreement. But often, the criticism they level is that I'm old, and therefore I must not care about the future, because I'll be dead soon anyway.

Insane.

1/10 First, I have kids and grandkids, and my grandkids are nearly old enough to have kids of their own. I fear the world they're inheriting. I'm enraged that they have fewer rights than my wife and I did. I'm incensed they have fewer opportunities.

2/10

I don't know how to put this clearly. The horrible SCOTUS immunity decision did not confer any additional powers on the president. It just protects the president from criminal prosecution.

Too many people confuse the concepts of "ability" and "immunity."

1/11 See, right now, today, you have the ability to buy a gun and hold up a liquor store. You can do that if you want. You will likely be arrested and prosecuted for it, but you have the ability to do it.

2/11

Something I learned long ago as a fiction writer: A happy ending happens only because that's where the author stopped telling the story.

Life always goes on, and even after momentous achievements, there will come more challenges.

Why am I telling you this now?

1/9 I've had some dorks ask me versions of, "Why should we reelect Biden to save democracy? What's he gonna do to fix the problem?"

They're looking for a permanent happy ending. They want Dumbledor (or Harry Potter) to save us all, once and for all.

That's not how it works.

2/9

Normally, "official corruption" is not when an official does something outside of the powers of the office, but when an official abuses the powers of the office for a corrupt purpose.

1/6 For example, the mayor of a small town may have the authority to sign contracts for the town (sewer, water, construction, etc.). If the mayor always gives all city business to his brother-in-law, that's generally seen as corrupt, and could be criminal.

2/6