"lazy blogger who doesn't write enough, but they are ALWAYS worth it". Described as "Esteemed", "Learned", "shit" and a "Military Industrial Complex WAR troll"
2 subscribers
Aug 27, 2022 • 17 tweets • 4 min read
So with all this talk of the coming Winter of Discontent, part 2: Electric Boogaloo, it's time to have a good old fashioned British rant about something. Not energy prices themselves, but the way they're presented and how politicians and the press are milking it. /1
Because of course the bastards are. "Never let a good crisis go to waste" etc, not when there's clicks to be had and political capital to be made, even if it comes at the expense of scaring the shit out of people and causing them needless worry. /2
Mar 25, 2022 • 10 tweets • 2 min read
Seen a number of similar suggestions that Kyiv was a mere feint, which I think are equally as implausible as the idea that Kyiv was the Russian centre of gravity, which we shall examine... err, now. /1
One of the opening gambits for the Russians was a failed air assault on an airport on the city outskirts, which suggests an attempt to capture Kyiv via coup de main. More specifically, it suggests an attempt to capture the Ukrainian government via coup de main. /2
Mar 25, 2022 • 4 tweets • 1 min read
Very true. Perhaps in part driven by our lack of real understanding over what the war goals are. Most of the West seems to think it's total conquest and obsess over Kyiv, but I suspect it's much more limited in nature and much of it has likely already been achieved. /1
I.E. Control over the Donbas, establishing a land line to Crimea, reopening and securing North Crimean Canal. The difficulty now is making these gains, along with additional concessions (no UKR in NATO etc), permanent through a political settlement /2
Mar 21, 2022 • 29 tweets • 5 min read
It seems that everyone hates tanks and is once again predicting their demise, so today let's look into why the anti-tank brigade might need to put the champagne on ice for a while longer. /1
I'm not sure quite why so many people have it in for the humble tank. Aside from the desire to be the one that "correctly" predicted the tank's battleship moment, there doesn't seem to be a good incentive as to why they're so loathed by some. /2
Mar 15, 2022 • 16 tweets • 3 min read
Just a few thrown together thoughts on Ukraine, specifically some concerns over what might be the most dangerous threats facing the Ukrainian's right now /1
There's a possibility that Russia might be trying to coax Belarus to join the war and invade further to the west. If it does, most people seem confident the Belarussian forces will perform even worse than the Russians. The question is; against whom? /2
Mar 11, 2022 • 25 tweets • 4 min read
It is, as we shall try and explore in this thread, assessing why something like a no-fly zone is dumb, from the perspective of a nation that is equal parts cunning, pragmatic and insanely paranoid.
Russia has a long and illustrious history of being repeatedly invaded, such is the life of a nation with extremely long land borders and a relatively low population density, most of which is concentrated in the western end of the country. /2
Mar 8, 2022 • 28 tweets • 6 min read
One thing that's being lost in all the talk of Russian logistical difficulties is the presence of and resistance of the Ukrainian army, both regular and reserve. /1
The narrative seems to have grown of late that the only reason the Russian forces aren't pushing forward faster and further is because of a lack of fuel for vehicles and food for its troops. This is exemplified by the discussion around "the column" north of Kyiv. /2
Mar 5, 2022 • 13 tweets • 3 min read
I've seen a number of posts/threads singing a similar tune and frankly I find them a little bizarre, and part of a continuing trend that seems to assign almost mythological powers to OSINT. Let's break this down quickly (says the man who did a 60 tweet thread the other day...) /1
First, the clue is in the acronym; OSINT, meaning Open Source INTelligence. In other words, right off the bat, nothing that these people are working with is classified or confidential data. It is freely available on the web, though some satellite stuff you need to pay for etc. /2
Mar 4, 2022 • 13 tweets • 3 min read
As a number of people have expressed surprise at the number of SU-25 losses, let's look at why this isn't actually all that surprising at all. /1
Cast your minds back to 1991 and the coalition air offensive against Iraqi forces that had invaded Kuwait. Set for a prime position in this offensive was the A-10 Thunderbolt II. /2
Mar 2, 2022 • 11 tweets • 5 min read
A very interesting piece that tallys with much of what I was saying in the mega thread the other day. Let's dive a bit deeper though. /1
The Wargame Before the War: Russia Attacks Ukraine @WarOnTheRockswarontherocks.com/2022/03/the-wa…@WarOnTheRocks To summarise, the wargame left the players/organisers unsurprised by much of what has happened. Many things have panned out pretty much exactly as they expected them to, "... as the wargame predicted" being a common theme. /2
Mar 2, 2022 • 4 tweets • 1 min read
On the 'Home front' as it were, we're getting a real-time insight inot how natural born American citizens of Japanese descent ended up in concentration camps during the second world war. /1
Anything Russian, or remotely connected to Russia, is being purged from western society at an incredible rate. Just to be Russian now is to be a pariah, regardless of whether or not an individual has any connection to the Putin regime. /2
Feb 28, 2022 • 7 tweets • 1 min read
I think part of the problem people are having vis-a-vis equipment losses in Ukraine is not understanding selection bias. /1
Imagine for example that the war was taking place here in the UK. Very few people would be taking pictures and video of burning Warrior IFVs and Challenger tanks, corpses strewn around them, or British soldiers advancing under a white flag. /2
Feb 28, 2022 • 61 tweets • 11 min read
Right, thread time. Because apparently everyone has gone bonkers. /1
Hopefully this whole shindig will put an end to the "Putin is a genius" narrative. As always though, it seems the pendulum (sp?) can never be allowed to just settle in the middle. It has to swing all the way to the opposite side. /2
Mar 22, 2021 • 124 tweets • 15 min read
Right, here we go. I shall now attempt to read the Defence Command paper thing while live tweeting my thoughts. For those playing the drinking game, take a shot every time COP26 is mentioned, which in that case probably wont be that often. Onwards! /1
"Defence in a competitive age" - As opposed to the uncompetitive wars in Iraq and Afghanistan? Still, it's not like they've had plenty of warning about the rise of China, Russia, etc. /2
Mar 16, 2021 • 116 tweets • 14 min read
The Integrated Review looks like quite a weighty, boring document. So in that spirit I shall try and brighten up the experience by live tweeting my thoughts as I read. Don't expect it to be coherent, or to contain any dazzling insights, /1
For example, upon opening the PDF I see it's default formatted to double spread. I dunno who does that, the PDF maker or the web browser, but it's fucking annoying. #nospreadsasPDFdefault /2
Mar 15, 2021 • 11 tweets • 3 min read
Today has seen one of those happy coincidences where two pieces are published on the same day and the suggestion in one might be used (with a bit of twisting) to address a perceived problem in the other. So let us start with the work by the venerable @thinkdefence /1
Here can be found his latest piece, on the subject of the MRV(P) programme: thinkdefence.co.uk/rethinking-the…
Nov 25, 2020 • 18 tweets • 3 min read
It seems International Aid is the hot topic right now so I suppose I should do a thread to at least maintain some sort of veneer of relevance for the benefit of newer followers. So here we go, /1
IA has a bunch of problems associated with it, most of which come back to the word "credibility". A lot of this is to do with the wheres and the hows of UK aid. So let's start with the where /2
Nov 25, 2020 • 4 tweets • 1 min read
With all this wrangling about what the Type 32 may or may not be, it might be worth noting something that Babock told investors in a recent briefing on the Type 31. /1
"This is a no-change contract, deliberately structured to specifically restrict customer change." This might explain why the government needs a Type 32, perhaps the RN desiring changes but having to wait to get them. /2
Apr 16, 2020 • 17 tweets • 4 min read
Thread time. You should read Maajid's thread anyway because I think it's quite interesting and shows that people outside defence Twitter are thinking on the subject, but I want to dive deeper into this specific statement about "preparing for war". 1/
First, caveat emptor, let's be clear that you can discuss the rationale behind a nations actions without agreeing with or endorsing their strategy and methods. This shouldn't need stating, but hey, it's Twitter. /2
Nov 28, 2018 • 8 tweets • 2 min read
Right, let's move on to the treasury analysis. For reference the PDF version can be found here: assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/upl…
"The analysis does not make judgements about any future UK Government policy decisions or responses" - Not a good start
Nov 28, 2018 • 13 tweets • 3 min read
OK. let's start with the Bank of England report. For reference here is the PDF if anyone wants to actually read the whole thing and not just the twitter highlights;bankofengland.co.uk/-/media/boe/fi…
Let's start with a defence of the BoE. The banks analysis represents scenarios, not a forecast. This is an important distinction to make. A scenario relies on making a series of connected assumptions and then mapping out what happens from there. Here ends the defence of the BoE
