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Domenico De Giorgio, EU. Capre Diem (not a typo). Profile picture
Domenico De Giorgio, EU. Capre Diem (not a typo).
@degiorgiod
Adj. Prof. Financial Markets,Credit,Banking @ Unicatt, Milan. Strategic Advisor. All things Macro, Bonds. Energy Specialist with a Softs touch. Ex Citi, ex UBM.
Dec 28 • 8 tweets • 2 min read
The recent silver rally on CME/COMEX—roughly 25% in the prompt contract over ten days—has been widely attributed to “unprecedented” depletion of exchange stocks and forced conversion of futures into physical metal. A close examination of the actual data does not support this 1/ narrative.

First, CME inventory figures show that total silver stocks remained broadly stable through the critical December delivery window. Registered stocks—the metal available for delivery—did not decline, while Eligible stocks fell modestly and orderly. This indicates 2/ Image
Dec 22 • 15 tweets • 5 min read
EU-Ukraine Loan: a long thread.

A chorus of economists and pundits—some of whom I actually respect—is currently up in arms over the fallout from the December 18th European Council marathon.

The original plan, pushed by the Commission and Merz’s Germany, was a 1/ masterpiece of "creative accounting": pillaging frozen Russian assets held by Euroclear to keep Ukraine’s economy (and military) on life support through 2026/27. That plan died on the vine. Instead, as the sun rose on December 19th, we found out the choice had fallen on a 2/
Nov 3 • 11 tweets • 4 min read
>>> Monetary Policy vs. Government Deficit Spending: How Public Debt Instruments Became a 'Lost' Asset Class <<<

The chart below explains two significant errors made by most investors:

a. Anchoring their expectations for long-term yields (red, 10-year Bund Yield) on 1/ Image short-term Monetary Policy Action (its proxy here is the 1-year EUR Swap rate, black).

b. Failing to see how mounting debt-funded public spending would make Sovereigns eventually become riskier than Corporates (blue is the 10-year EUR Swap).

Once peak 2/
Oct 24 • 7 tweets • 3 min read
US CPI thoughts, (delayed) Sep.'25
By looking at the table below one would hardly fathom the steepest U.S. Trade Tariffs in 80yrs (see: x.com/degiorgiod/sta…) would translate into the "modest" CPI prints we are witnessing for Sep.'25.
One would rather pin such readings to 1/ x.com/degiorgiod/sta…Image a vibrant, dynamic Job/Salaries ecosystem where spending is solid and consistent with a lively (2) yet less hot wages/jobs set-up where Wages continue to clock @ 4.1% YoY (1), ~+0.5% more than pre-Covid era but with a clearly less tight (3) balance btwn Labour S/D as Stayers' 2/ Image
Oct 23 • 9 tweets • 3 min read
>King Liar<
@BruceCampbell63 reports a @FoxNews article () where a WH spokesperson's comment ("Coffee prices globally are also near historic highs because of supply woes... not tariffs.") is a gross distortion of market reality and is essentially false.
1/ foxbusiness.com/politics/trump…Image Here's why:

The critical point is the distinction between a commodity's price and its availability for contractual fulfillment.

Brazil's Role: Brazil is the largest Arabica producer (albeit often lower quality for the exchange, hence the structural discount) and is 2/
Oct 21 • 8 tweets • 3 min read
>>>EU Act of Faith on LNG and Renewables<<<

Injections into EU-wide storage systems peaked on October 13th at 83.15% full ($948.86 TWh), 15 days earlier than last year (when $1,093.9TWh was hit on October 28th, 2024), and 23 days earlier than 2023's peak ($1,135.6TWh hit 1/ Image on November 5th, 2023).

End-of-Season (EOS) Storage is 9% lower this year compared to last year, and 14% lower compared to its 5-year average.

2/ Image
Oct 10 • 9 tweets • 3 min read
Texas: the Lone Star State is an energy behemoth whose immense might and significance in the Energy Transition landscape are scarcely understood.

According to U.S. EIA Data for the end of 2024, Texas's Net Electricity Generation was 564 TWh, 1/ representing 13% of the entire U.S. total (4,305 TWh). Between 2001 and 2024, Texas increased its Net Electricity Generation by 51% (from 373 TWh to 564 TWh), while the entire U.S. increased its generation from 3,737 TWh to 4,305 TWh.

If we rank the continental U.S. states 2/ Image
Oct 8 • 4 tweets • 2 min read
A few days to go, then it will Nov. 1st.
Horrible holes in Natural Gas Storage remain to be filled at a EU-Country level.
Massive injections (red lines, rhs)'ve been made this Summer but nowhere close to fill the gaps vs LY's "safe" Winter storage lvls.
DE alone is 51 TWh behind! Image Things are frail already in Power-land...
Sep 17 • 5 tweets • 2 min read
A visibly "tamer" Powell at today's #FOMC Presser.
The dual mandate does create a challenge for an independent institution.
Now that the notion of "independence"'s been materially marred one must weigh the factual trickiness of the dual mandate w/ the mounting political pressure. The "data quality" issue gets a political spin: government agencies must make sure we have high response rates and in order to do that you need resources to collect high response rates.
The topic is deeper than what Powell suggests as NFP/household survey issues are long-dated.
Sep 6 • 12 tweets • 5 min read
European Natural Gas Prices: Fundamentals Matter more than Speculation. A very long thread.

We are now in the fourth year since European Energy Security and Affordability were effectively discarded (x.com/degiorgiod/sta…).
The prototypical scapegoat offered by EU officials 1/ x.com/degiorgiod/sta… for why TTF natural gas prices remain two to three times higher than pre-2020 levels is — unsurprisingly — speculators ().
With over 15 years of experience in the global Oil and U.S. Natural Gas markets, I find it appalling that Supply/Demand 2/
Sep 4 • 14 tweets • 3 min read
ECB's #RatesCancelCulture, France’s Spending Profligacy, and Italy’s No-Spend/No-Growth Wonder: a long thread

Over the years I have repeatedly argued that the ECB’s excessively prolonged interventions to control long-end yields of key Eurozone sovereign debt sowed the seeds 1/ of political irresponsibility and short-term, short-sighted spending profligacy.

Between March 2015 (when Mario Draghi’s ECB launched the first batch of the PSPP to shore up debt-ridden PIGS) and July 2025 – chart 1 – net issuance of euro-denominated debt instruments by key 2/ Image
Aug 16 • 5 tweets • 2 min read
As the n-th hollow threat levied by US Hairdogan onto the Russian Czar ends in a nothingburger it is delusional witnessing the complete loss of any European meaningfulness as the Ukraine carnage goes on.
Long before (2021) Putin started the actual war I have shown how EU 1/ Image supine posture towards Washington in handling EU foreign affairs (see ↓) had alienated the only credible, usable, viable leverage in the hands of the EU and of its member states: trade, namely energy trade.

Once that leverage was lost (again, read 2/
Aug 14 • 6 tweets • 2 min read
US NatGas - a Thread.

I appreciate market has thus far this latest 30 days or so been concerned - and rightly so - about the abnormal speed of build in the SC Region. Blue lines are actual level of storage (BCF) from Injection Season Start (April 4th, 2025) for Salt (lhs), 1/ Image non-Salt (center), SC (rhs) through EIA's latest Number (today's). Data past latest number (blue line again) is as of corresponding week from Last Year. Purple and Yellow are accumulated incremental(+),decremental(-) BCF of storage added from Start of Injection Season vs LY, 2/
Aug 12 • 6 tweets • 2 min read
US CPI Thoughts, Jul'25
3 months into the TACO Trade War inflationary pressures into those CPI macro-categories in principle more impacted by tariffs appear limited.
On a YoY, HoH basis Food, Commodities ex Food&Energy and New Vehicles do show reverberations of the trade war 1/ Image but on a scale not comparable to what feared.
Odds are that courtesy of ever looser Financial Conditions US and massive pre-emptive imports 2/ Image
Aug 9 • 6 tweets • 2 min read
10Dec1985: Carl Sagan before US Congress.

Key points:
*Climate change is a GLOBAL INTERGENERATIONAL FACT
*Without the involvement of China there is no chance to prevent it from degenerating

On Mitigation:
*Mindlessly Burning fossil fuels is a key man-made accelerating factor 1/ *Expanding Energy Mix towards Nuclear ...


2/
Jul 3 • 5 tweets • 2 min read
US NFPs 06/'25
"You can't force a horse to drink"
The overall benign tone of the US Job Market masks two key aspects:
a. There is no Manufacturing renessaince whatsoever at an employment-level. However dearly paid for or subsidized, no new jobs there have emerged so far /1 Image Jobs creation continues to be in L&H, where additions clock north of 80k/month new jobs.
Given this backdrop, no wonder the lingering feeling about inflation remains a bad one as however fast-increasing, salaries paid in this "poor-jobs" bucket leave the worker a "poor" one. /2 Image
May 6 • 8 tweets • 3 min read
Let's compare&contrast MAG7-led SP500 perf. vs RUT:
a. from Jan 1st, 2023 (ie from when the post Annus Horribilis 2022 rebound started);
b. from Nov. 9th, 2023, when UST10y yield peaked;
through Nov.4th, 2024 (Trump Election Day).
We see the AI-powered SP500 overperf. vs RUT 1/ Image really materialized during the Jan-Nov. 2023 timespan as from Nov.2023 into Nov.2024 *both* indices actually rallied in synch supported by impressive US Economy resilience and several dovish false-steps of the US FED (Sep. 2024 anyone?).
In other words: the colossal reduction 2/
May 2 • 9 tweets • 3 min read
US NFPs 04/'25
It does take a great deal of intellectual paucity and dishonesty to claim the root of US Federal Budget Spending Profligacy is rooted in the ballooning Payrolls at Governmental Level.
Over the last 25yrs Government Payrolls as % of Total US NFPs red line) moved 1/ Image from a max of 17.60% in May '10 to a min. of 14.49% in Oct. '22, and up ever since to today's (Apr. '22) 14.8%.
Ballooning Federal Budget is verily rooted in the ill-conceived and distaster-only yielding narrative of *Manufacturing Reshoring" (). 2/
Apr 26 • 4 tweets • 2 min read
Winter 2024-'25 saw EU Member States forced to deplete ~ to record amounts of stored Natural Gas (see ↓) not only because Dunkelflaute repeatedly hit DE, NL (see: x.com/degiorgiod/sta…) but also because EU27 imported 111bcm btwn Nov.'24-Jan.'25 vs 120 in same-period '23-'24 1/ x.com/degiorgiod/sta…Image As per previous chart, declines were spread across the board in both pipeline and LNG segments of supplies.
Ironically, as EU Member states imports from the US fell by 1.3bcm over that timeframe, the very price of those fewer molecules actually ROSE 2/ Image
Apr 26 • 7 tweets • 2 min read
Non si sconfigge un Male alleandosi con uno ancora peggiore.

I funerali di Papa Francesco mi offrono nuova occasione per una amara riflessione.
Ho decine e decine di post su X proprio su questo punto, da molti anni.

Francesco ha incarnato un errore logico 1/ che troppi commettono: la loro opposizione (e mia come testimonio tra gli altri con questo: ) all'ipocrisia viscida di molta parte delle istituzioni occidentali - che è un fatto - non può e non deve essere "controbilanciata" da un sotterraneo od 2/
Apr 23 • 7 tweets • 2 min read
More on this. A short thread.

These two charts try to make sense of two radically different eras: the run-up to the GFC vs the COVID-19 and their fallouts.
While the GFC was the culmination point of a good 5yrs of reckless financially engineered speculation (Upper chart: 1/ Image US CCC OAS shrunk from 90% to 45% of the all-in Yield, testament of insatiable, risk management-light risk-buying), the COVID-19 pandemic was an exogeouns, unexpected shock.
The run-up into the GFC was also starring (Lower Chart, red-dotted line) a fairly higher debt burden /2