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Domenico De Giorgio, EU. Capre Diem (not a typo). Profile picture
Domenico De Giorgio, EU. Capre Diem (not a typo).
@degiorgiod
Adj. Prof. Financial Markets,Credit,Banking @ Unicatt, Milan. Strategic Advisor. All things Macro, Bonds. Energy Specialist with a Softs touch. Ex Citi, ex UBM.
Aug 12 • 6 tweets • 2 min read
US CPI Thoughts, Jul'25
3 months into the TACO Trade War inflationary pressures into those CPI macro-categories in principle more impacted by tariffs appear limited.
On a YoY, HoH basis Food, Commodities ex Food&Energy and New Vehicles do show reverberations of the trade war 1/ Image but on a scale not comparable to what feared.
Odds are that courtesy of ever looser Financial Conditions US and massive pre-emptive imports 2/ Image
Aug 9 • 6 tweets • 2 min read
10Dec1985: Carl Sagan before US Congress.

Key points:
*Climate change is a GLOBAL INTERGENERATIONAL FACT
*Without the involvement of China there is no chance to prevent it from degenerating

On Mitigation:
*Mindlessly Burning fossil fuels is a key man-made accelerating factor 1/ *Expanding Energy Mix towards Nuclear ...


2/
Jul 3 • 5 tweets • 2 min read
US NFPs 06/'25
"You can't force a horse to drink"
The overall benign tone of the US Job Market masks two key aspects:
a. There is no Manufacturing renessaince whatsoever at an employment-level. However dearly paid for or subsidized, no new jobs there have emerged so far /1 Image Jobs creation continues to be in L&H, where additions clock north of 80k/month new jobs.
Given this backdrop, no wonder the lingering feeling about inflation remains a bad one as however fast-increasing, salaries paid in this "poor-jobs" bucket leave the worker a "poor" one. /2 Image
May 6 • 8 tweets • 3 min read
Let's compare&contrast MAG7-led SP500 perf. vs RUT:
a. from Jan 1st, 2023 (ie from when the post Annus Horribilis 2022 rebound started);
b. from Nov. 9th, 2023, when UST10y yield peaked;
through Nov.4th, 2024 (Trump Election Day).
We see the AI-powered SP500 overperf. vs RUT 1/ Image really materialized during the Jan-Nov. 2023 timespan as from Nov.2023 into Nov.2024 *both* indices actually rallied in synch supported by impressive US Economy resilience and several dovish false-steps of the US FED (Sep. 2024 anyone?).
In other words: the colossal reduction 2/
May 2 • 9 tweets • 3 min read
US NFPs 04/'25
It does take a great deal of intellectual paucity and dishonesty to claim the root of US Federal Budget Spending Profligacy is rooted in the ballooning Payrolls at Governmental Level.
Over the last 25yrs Government Payrolls as % of Total US NFPs red line) moved 1/ Image from a max of 17.60% in May '10 to a min. of 14.49% in Oct. '22, and up ever since to today's (Apr. '22) 14.8%.
Ballooning Federal Budget is verily rooted in the ill-conceived and distaster-only yielding narrative of *Manufacturing Reshoring" (). 2/
Apr 26 • 4 tweets • 2 min read
Winter 2024-'25 saw EU Member States forced to deplete ~ to record amounts of stored Natural Gas (see ↓) not only because Dunkelflaute repeatedly hit DE, NL (see: x.com/degiorgiod/sta…) but also because EU27 imported 111bcm btwn Nov.'24-Jan.'25 vs 120 in same-period '23-'24 1/ x.com/degiorgiod/sta…Image As per previous chart, declines were spread across the board in both pipeline and LNG segments of supplies.
Ironically, as EU Member states imports from the US fell by 1.3bcm over that timeframe, the very price of those fewer molecules actually ROSE 2/ Image
Apr 26 • 7 tweets • 2 min read
Non si sconfigge un Male alleandosi con uno ancora peggiore.

I funerali di Papa Francesco mi offrono nuova occasione per una amara riflessione.
Ho decine e decine di post su X proprio su questo punto, da molti anni.

Francesco ha incarnato un errore logico 1/ che troppi commettono: la loro opposizione (e mia come testimonio tra gli altri con questo: ) all'ipocrisia viscida di molta parte delle istituzioni occidentali - che è un fatto - non può e non deve essere "controbilanciata" da un sotterraneo od 2/
Apr 5 • 8 tweets • 3 min read
Dan @pickeringenergy makes some solid points below (h/t @JavierBlas for bringing this up).
I agree with many of Dan's points.
I'd stress how one key element is missing: the shape of CAL Strips.
Understendably there's a lot of focus on prompt prices as there's where trading is. 1/ I have repeatedly stated in many, many posts how the #DrillBabyDrill is pie in the sky and will never happen ().
O&G CapEx decisions are never tied to prompt contract shenanigans.
Rather, they are pinned on medium-term price dynamics.
That's where CALs /2
Feb 4 • 12 tweets • 3 min read
I have been battling for four years at the frontline of the European Energy Crisis.
I made stern, counter-current calls on the effects of the disastrous ESG-folly, of the #GreenDeal and EU Taxonomy orchestrated by EU Green-fundamentalists.
Today, the numbers in the table below 1/ Image are nothing short of a complete, general, devastating SNAFU European Citizens, Households and Corporations have been, are and will be exposed to.
European Natural Gas Benchmark TTF Calendar Strip for 2025 is currently up 72% YoY, the highest Calendar 2/
Dec 11, 2024 • 5 tweets • 3 min read
The killing of UnitedHealthcare CEO's is unacceptable and must be sternly condemned.
Long ago I posted this thread (↓) to stress how mounting inequality is nervetheless the root of existential threat to US, Western democracies, with Heath Systems Issues at the 1/n top of the list. Do not reply me showing charts with growing GDP-per-capita trendlines and/or Gini Coefficients.
The epic SNAFU of US FED, EU ECB in handling the 2021-2023 Inflation burst proves how wrong it can be boiling down complex, changing phenomena to few datapoints. 2/n Image
Image
Mar 28, 2022 • 5 tweets • 1 min read
Puoi essere al contempo:

- contro la Nato
- per sostegno militare a Ucraina
- per la prosecuzione della guerra di resistenza contro Mosca
- contro aumento spese militari nei paesi EU e in Italia in particolare?

NO.

1/n Io aborro la guerra.
Condanno senza mezzi termini folle idea di negare a Ucraina supporto diplomatico per risolvere odiosa aggressione subita da Mosca (figlia di decenni di infiltrazioni U.S.A. in E.U. e UA contro Mosca).
2/n
Mar 8, 2022 • 6 tweets • 2 min read
Mini-thread to follow-up on Lena's call for action.
Handling a global basic-resources, energy commodities and raw-materials shortage in the midst of the largest outpour of debt-funded DMs Demand/Investments from WWII calls for nimble, out-of-the-box thinking. 1/ Availability of Basic Resources has been plentiful over the 2010-2020 decade because of the combination of:
1- massive CapEx from global Producers of (you-name-what) between 2000's and 2008 to counter insatiable demand from China's post WTO Admission 2/ Image
Jan 19, 2021 • 7 tweets • 3 min read
Considerando le proiezioni di variazione del PIL del WEO dell'IMF (Ottobre 2020), di quanto sarà superiore (asse X > 0) o minore (asse X < 0) il PIL dei Paesi indicati nell'anno in TITOLO rispetto alla variazione da esso registrata nel 2020?... ...forse...
Jan 10, 2021 • 4 tweets • 2 min read
U.S. Democracy problems are deeply rooted. Long-dated.

g.co/kgs/P2XJ2D x.com/degiorgiod/sta… Number of suicide per 10.000 people.
Selected Western (developed) World countries.

Inequalities prosper in the Oldest Democracy of the planet. Image
Dec 11, 2020 • 6 tweets • 3 min read
Il Veneto - giallo zafferano da sempre - è oggi dove saranno tra 20 giorni tutti gli ex-rossi, ora arancioni dopodomani gialli.

#IlModelloPiùBelloDelMondo - a detta del SarsCOV2 Quarantena fiduciaria - Veneto (sinistra); Lombardia (destra)
Dec 4, 2020 • 7 tweets • 3 min read
Come esattamente ricorda @gianlucac1 non è mica che tutti decessi COVID19 transitino via ICU.
Il che rende dinamica attuale decessi ancora più sinistra vista minore attuale incidenza di ICU (nazionali) su totale ospedalizzati.
Non oso pensare a excess mortality ISTAT quando nota. Image Parimenti, stock e flussi pazienti ospedalizzati differiscono pericolosamente da prima ondata, mostrando un moto inerziale pericoloso.
La cautela nel tenere bassi contagi e seguenti ricoveri deriva proprio dal passo lento di smaltimento e dall'elevat(issim)o punto di partenza. Image
Dec 3, 2020 • 4 tweets • 2 min read
IL COVID19 UCCIDE. IL COVID19 UCCIDE
Nov 13, 2020 • 8 tweets • 3 min read
13 Novembre - Nazionale
Baseline decessi ISTAT nazionale 2015-2019 (blu)
Decessi misurati COVID19 (rosso) 13 Novembre - Nazionale
media mobile 7gg % Nuovi Positivi su CASI testati (dx)
media mobile 7gg % Ospedalizzati su CASI testati (sx)
Nov 12, 2020 • 7 tweets • 2 min read
12 Novembre - Nazionale - Ospedalizzati da COVID19 12 Novembre - Nazionale - Ospedalizzati da COVID19