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nick Profile picture
nick
@demonetizedblog
I write about finance, investing and tangentially-related woo from behind a thin veil of anonymity. Otherwise, just trying to eke out a living.
Dec 9, 2022 • 5 tweets • 1 min read
Warring Twitter Files narratives are a fascinating case study. It’s interesting from this POV cause the facts are not really at issue (from what I’ve seen). It’s the accepted “meaning” of the facts that matters. It’s also interesting because the first-order stakes in meatspace are incredibly low. The stakes themselves only really exist in narrative-land.
Dec 8, 2022 • 6 tweets • 1 min read
kinda crazy to think how much of the industry is devoted to vol smoothing. set PE and private credit marks aside. I’m talking about the vast number of market participants who get paid to smooth vol. of course vol drag is a thing so this does make some sense. but there are an immense amount of risk premia investors who then… want to hedge the risk they are being compensated to bear?
Dec 8, 2022 • 7 tweets • 2 min read
Couple rando thoughts related to this… I feel like for the longest time in credit the preference was for complex structure & esoteric assets for the yield pickup. Not an area I’ve been active in personally though I get the pitches. Aircraft/helicopter leasing seems very common but I might be just getting spammed
Dec 6, 2022 • 5 tweets • 1 min read
yes. there are lots of reasons for this (some good some bad). part of it is that updating backend technology is a goddamn monumental pain in the ass. I think one disconnect between the tech bubble and other industries is that other industries do not use technology professionally for the sake of using technology they use it to accomplish other tasks.
Apr 26, 2021 • 18 tweets • 4 min read
Some corporate politics stuff popped up in the feed today and sparked some idle musings. I think politics are inescapable in any organizational setting but the toxicity can vary dramatically across organizations and is largely determined by behavior senior management models. if corporate political toxicity exists on a spectrum, on one end you have a relatively benign environment where it’s primarily about selling ideas & building coalitions. On the other end is the real Game of Thrones shit where people are running abusive psyops on each other.
Apr 25, 2021 • 6 tweets • 2 min read
this is a great question. my response from an allocator POV is that this is ultimately the allocator's problem. I would rather not encourage these types of managers to start screwing around with hedging & macro trades if your are an allocator and worried about this exposure you can hedge this risk yourself. my guess is that most allocators wouldn't be any better at it than the underlying managers though
Apr 23, 2021 • 5 tweets • 1 min read
slow friday at lunchtime so I am thinking about some tenets for my largely made-up ideology of anti-authoritarian accelerationism. (of course the core tenets are literally right there in the name) putting this tweet here cause it's what sparked this (response to a locked account)
Apr 23, 2021 • 4 tweets • 1 min read
lol this “yay capitalism” cheerleading section the Draper comment is just *chef’s kiss* it really is a golden goose to these guys. A big fat golden goose for them to loot
Apr 7, 2021 • 14 tweets • 3 min read
I have been thinking about the linked article all day so far it’s the most clear articulation of small investor edge I’ve seen. And it’s very well written which is a nice bonus.
Apr 5, 2021 • 6 tweets • 2 min read
I use a variation on @breakingthemark's strategy in my 401k now and today's monthly rebalance check was amusing. Not exactly the markowitz bullet 😆 Image @breakingthemark The variation (for anyone who cares): I use a 1-month lookback due to limitations on transaction frequency. Allocate to the highest geometric mean portfolio across a pool of ~4 assets/strategies. I just use the realized return over the lookback as a proxy for the arith mean
Mar 29, 2021 • 12 tweets • 2 min read
free horror movie idea

working title: Beyond the Sea so poor reap does not need to tagged on all this nonsense here is my quick synopsis
Mar 29, 2021 • 4 tweets • 1 min read
huge mistake tweeting this I could have dragged it out into a whole course on fund marketing for $1,000 a pop Level 300 material for premium subs only

* Creating compelling dual-axis charts

* Exploiting the internal politics of investment committees for fun and profit

* A marketer’s guide to why the trend in AUM and flows is always a good thing for investors
Mar 26, 2021 • 5 tweets • 1 min read
those wondering "why is the tanker still stuck?" clearly not familiar with the hard-charging Egyptian work culture of roll up at 10 AM, leave at 4 pm and take 15 smoke breaks per hour you should all be happy this tanker didn't get stuck during Ramadan then where would we be?
Mar 2, 2021 • 4 tweets • 1 min read
options friends. help me think about something plz. I am trying to get better about using options to express certain views. Here is what I am thinking about (on the advice of a follow from a while ago) I own $CCJ common. some "easy money" has been made in the stock. I think it could run further. I am considering selling some and buying some long-dated OTM calls. my question: how to think about strike selection?
Mar 2, 2021 • 12 tweets • 2 min read
riffing further on this, lots of clever little investment strategy metaphors to be made here because investing strategy and military doctrine are somewhat similarly influenced by real resource constraints & more cultural factors 1v1 an F-22 is probably superior or at least an even match for any jet in the world. But that doesn't mean it's the right jet for every air force. Setting aside pure economic constraints...
Mar 2, 2021 • 13 tweets • 2 min read
I had a high school teacher who once said something along the lines of: "you want Germans to design your stuff; Russians to adapt those designs to production (is there a name for this?); and Americans to manufacture this was in the context of WWII era. Not sure it really holds today.
Mar 1, 2021 • 4 tweets • 1 min read
"invest". "waiting list". nvm guys this is a systematic momentum strategy
May 31, 2020 • 9 tweets • 2 min read
A perfect little sketch of life in the age of atomized meaning. Joe Biden's zombie candidacy is likewise a perfect caricature of the Old Order and its sad descent into irrelevance.
May 20, 2020 • 6 tweets • 5 min read
@KegNowhere @EpsilonTheory It really depends on your overall goal. I would start with the basics of DCF. And for that @AswathDamodaran is top notch. amazon.com/dp/B004SI4A4C/… @KegNowhere @EpsilonTheory @AswathDamodaran This stuff is kind of like learning your times tables in elementary math. Once you develop basic fluency in these kinds of models, it is easier to layer on understanding of most financial concepts.
Mar 25, 2020 • 11 tweets • 1 min read
Wow, turning into a real face ripper. $6tn of stimulus will do that, I guess. This is what I mean with the market being a "concept stock." IMO, for the foreseeable future will be driven more by liquidity conditions and the TINA, "now you's can't leave", impact of policy decisions than the "real" economy.
Mar 16, 2020 • 6 tweets • 2 min read
This is what my friend @WRGuinn wrote about the other day in his excellent note. The virus itself is bad, but will pass (along with its direct economic effects). That ship has sailed. What you should be thinking about now is potential second and third order effects. If your asset allocation strategy does not have an adaptative component, you might want to step back from the screens and think about changing that.