Currently in Ontario 2.3% are >85 yrs; by 2040 it will be 8%. Right now, >16% are over 65.

Currently, over 250K Ontarians live with dementia. By 2040, that number will double.

The need for elder care is PRESSING. Here are some quick thoughts for policy makers.

Thread [1/8] Meanwhile, a third of Canadians 15-49 are childless. By 2040, that proportion is sure to increase, as the more fecund older demographic dies off.

Currently, 12% of Ontarians live alone. Among seniors, >25% of men are without a spouse, as are >50% of women.

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Time for another thread that is sure to trigger lots of people. But it's a sleepy morning, so why not? I'm going to talk about immigration and population growth from the perspective of someone who studies demographics and population shifts.

Thread [1/12] First, it's fairly obvious that population growth is bad for the environment. It also creates stresses on services and infrastructure, if those things are not accommodated. No question.

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Ontario wastewater testing ends today. This is a colossally foolish policy decision. I discussed some of it at the link below. But I also want to list some of the issues in this thread.



[1/1]canadahealthwatch.ca/2024/06/12/whe… Wastewater testing is passive. It requires us to do NOTHING, as opposed to other kinds of surveillance, which require us to get tested or submit information.

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Lots of people are confused by the word "immunity." To scientists, there are essentially two kinds of immunity: humoral and cellular.

Cellular immunity destroys pathogens inside the cell, whereas humoral immunity destroys pathogens outside the cell.

(Thread [1/4]) In other words, humoral immunity is what prevents initial infection. With respect to COVID vaccines and prior infection, clearly humoral immunity has waned and will continue to wane, so long as vaccines do not match prevalent variants.

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In the event of a true H5N1 pandemic, we would need mRNA vaccines. Here's why:

(Thread [1/7]) 1) Current flu vaccine is incubated in eggs. Eggs come from birds. During an actual BIRD flu pandemic, eggs could be compromised or in short supply.

[2/5]

Why has Canada not ordered any pre-pandemic H5N1 vaccine? I really don't know. But I have some theories.

(Thread [1/5]) 1) Their plan is to obtain virus for making vaccines, if/when needed. But we would first need to free up manufacturing capacity (i.e., flu eggs) after current seasonal flu vaccine has been manufactured.

[2/5]

Some early morning thoughts on the Ontario wastewater (WW) surveillance system being replaced with a federal system with fewer reporting sites:

(Thread [1/8]) 1) Wastewater testing is important for allowing local organizations, governments, and individuals to do individualized disease risk assessments.

[2/8]

Why are so many of super concerned about H5N1 (avian flu)? Quick thread for the lay person....

1) H5N1 is not the typical seasonal flu. It lives mostly in birds (hence "avian")

(Thread: (1/10]) 2) From 2003 to 2024, 887 cases of human infection with avian influenza A(H5N1) virus were reported from 23 countries. Of these 887 cases, 462 were fatal. That's a horrifing case fatality rate (CFR) of 52%


[2/10]cdn.who.int/media/docs/def…

This thread will trigger a troll feeding frenzy. But I think it's necessary. It's time to summarize a timeline of COVID vaccine statistics and what they say about whether the vaccines reduced transmission or not, and whether "experts" lied or not. Here goes...

(Thread [1/17]) To begin, let's remember that vaccines seek to do 4 things, in descending order of importance and likelihood:
1. prevent death
2. prevent hospitalization
3. prevent symptomatic disease
4. prevent infection & transmission

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Some people say they don't care about Measles so long as they're vaccinated. Two doses of MMR vaccine are ~97% effective at preventing Measles infection. (Thread [1/4]) That number also drops as more years pass. That means at least 3 out of every 100 exposed vaccinated people will get Measles. [2/4]

There are many cognitive barriers preventing many people from understanding COVID and vaccine science. There are three I want to highlight today.

[Thread 1/4] 1) Inability to Appreciate Exponential growth

By the time you see it, it's already here. The magic of compound interest can make you rich, bury you in debt, or overwhelm your hospitals. Accept that no one has a "feel" for it and instead trust the objective math.

[2/4]

Bret Weinstein is claiming that the COVID vaccine killed 17 million people. This is based on a non-peer reviewed study by fired former professor Denis Rancourt, famous for his contrarian (eg climate change denial) views. Let's go over why this is all nonsense.

Thread [1/7] 1) Rancourt's analysis is what we call "ecological". He looked at the excess mortality in the population during the time of initial vaccine rollout. Despite his strong claims, you cannot by definition make causal claims based on ecological data.

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My online journey these past 3 years has been surprisingly philosophically instructive as I unexpectedly became a little bit publicly recognizable and thus the target of hate mongers. What I learned was that the wisdom of the Stoics is not to be underestimated. [Thread 1/5] The thoughts of Seneca and Marcus Aurelius taught me much. And if anyone were to ask me (and no one has) I'd recommend that everyone return to such ancient wisdom, whose tenets include:

-Realizing that words are not literal violence. We have the power to ignore words.

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This morning my 3-year old wanted to play a game where I write the name of an animal and he draws it. I'm sharing my favourite ones here.

Up first: parrot Next is a snake.... but he decided to instead draw a winding road on which the snake is slithering.

As I retreat from public COVID commentary, here's a brief thread summarizing my comments (and things I forgot to say) on CTV this morning: [thread 1/7] "Is there a new COVID Wave?"
-yes, in USA hospitalizations are up 12.5% this past week, and deaths up 8%
-in Ottawa, hospitalizations and wastewater are both trending up

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