Hindsight bias -- things look more predictable after they happen than before -- tends to be a treated as one of the lesser psychological quirks. I think that's wrong. It's a major distortion of perception that can badly skew judgment. 1/ dgardner.substack.com/p/the-uncertai… Greater predictability means less uncertainty. By making the past look more predictable than it was, hindsight bias make it look less uncertain -- and uncertain is a potent source of worry. So hindsight bias makes the past look less scary than it was. 2/ dgardner.substack.com/p/the-uncertai…