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Dan Hopkins Profile picture
Dan Hopkins
@dhopkins1776
Political scientist @Penn. Prof: https://t.co/URr9ybQSEQ 538: https://t.co/Hw9WeVU85Z #polisciresearch
Nov 5, 2023 • 8 tweets • 3 min read
Some thoughts related to the NYT polls...

1) Yes, it's💯 true that head-to-head polls aren't traditionally very predictive this far out, but there are only elections every 4 years, and much of the existing evidence comes from less polarized times. 2) Certainly, panel data shows that many individual voters can meaningfully report preferences many months out that they continue to hold on Election Day:

fivethirtyeight.com/features/voter…
May 22, 2023 • 7 tweets • 3 min read
With Yotam Margalit & @solo_omer, I'm excited to publicly post a new article, forthcoming @BJPolS:

"Personal Economic Shocks and Public Opposition to Unauthorized Immigration"

papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cf…

Brief 🧵 Image In the paper, we use the ISCAP panel (2007-2020) to examine the impacts of negative economic shocks like unemployment and income drops on Americans' attitudes towards unauthorized immigration.

dataverse.harvard.edu/dataset.xhtml?…
Oct 24, 2022 • 5 tweets • 4 min read
The @nytimes has a piece on changing racial/ethnic demographics & objecting to 2020:
nytimes.com/2022/10/23/us/…

FWIW:

1) @seth_j_hill, G Huber & I find no positive relationship between demographic change, GOP support '12-'16 in this @PNASNews:

pnas.org/doi/10.1073/pn… 2) I know from prior studies that the relationship between changing racial/ethnic demographics & political behavior is hard to isolate--rapidly changing communities differ in many ways.

Ex. fast-changing communities often more homogeneous to start.

papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cf…
Aug 31, 2022 • 12 tweets • 6 min read
With thanks to @BJPolS, I have a new article: "Stable Views in a Time of Tumult: Assessing Trends in US Public Opinion, 2007-20."

Here's a 🧵on the paper. It asks: "were there warning signs in public opinion that an anti-democratic attack like 1/6 was brewing?"

Not really. The paper uses the ISCAP panel to track the same population-based sample of US adults' political attitudes 2007-2020.

BTW, the ISCAP panel is publicly available here: dataverse.harvard.edu/dataset.xhtml?…

(compiled with @Penn colleague Diana Mutz & support of many including @RussellSageFdn)
Oct 10, 2021 • 11 tweets • 5 min read
Wanted to post a few reactions to the (as always) thoughtful @ezraklein piece on @davidshor, messaging, & "popularism."

tl;dr I think this debate puts a lot more on messaging than it can reasonably carry.

1/ The 1st noteworthy thing: the timing & author.

Just as Congressional Dems debate what may be their last, best chance to change policy for years, many on the left are focused on messaging/branding.

Even @ezraklein, who 1st caught my attention via policy coverage/Wonkblog.

2/
Jun 24, 2021 • 7 tweets • 4 min read
My latest @FiveThirtyEight piece with @ProfHansNoel is now up: fivethirtyeight.com/features/how-t…

We use @YouGovAmerica surveys of political activists in 2016, 2021 to show how Trump is redefining what it means to be "conservative"--even among political activists.

1/ Specifically, our @YouGovAmerica surveys asked political activists (Democrats and Republicans) to assess pairs of politicians, drawn primarily from the U.S. Senate--and tell us who within a pair is more liberal or conservative.

2/
May 5, 2021 • 12 tweets • 5 min read
Here's a new #polisciresearch working paper & a 🧵.

We all know about 1/6 and the threat to American democracy that crystalized that day.

Were there *changes* in American public opinion in the years before that foreshadowed the threat?

Not really.

papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cf… Using the 2007-2020 ISCAP panel survey, I track a population-based sample of Americans who were 18 by 2008.

So I can isolate specific individuals' attitudes & see if they were shifting in ways that might have predicted the coming threat to democracy.

2/
Apr 21, 2021 • 13 tweets • 5 min read
🚨 New article out 🚨

Excited that my new article "Not by Turnout Alone: Measuring the Sources of Electoral Change, 2012-2016" with @seth_j_hill & Greg Huber is out today in @ScienceAdvances:

advances.sciencemag.org/content/7/17/e… It looks at a question about elections which is both important and overlooked—when we see changes in party support from election to election, are they driven by changes in who turns out (composition) or in which party consistent voters support (conversion)?

2/
Jan 21, 2021 • 5 tweets • 2 min read
Last week, I posted some results from the ISCAP general-population panel showing a 2016-2020 pro-Trump shift among English-speaking Latino respondents--but no corresponding shift in partisanship.

I now have some new results on this to share...

1/ With respect to levels, it's key to note that English-speaking Latinos in that general-population panel were markedly cooler on Trump even in October '20 than White Americans--36 vs. 48 on a 0-100 scale.

2/
Jan 14, 2021 • 8 tweets • 3 min read
The stability of evaluations of Trump 2016-2020 is esp. striking given the breathless pace of news and norm-shattering.

That disconnect points to the critical importance of studying activists/social movements in addition to general population surveys like this one. There's not much in my survey data that hints that 1/6/2021 is on the horizon.

28% of respondents rate Trump above an 80 on the 0-100 feeling thermometer--which is lower than but not too far from 34% for Obama in 2018.
Jan 4, 2021 • 7 tweets • 2 min read
With @ProfHansNoel, I've been doing research that may shed some light on divides within the Senate GOP.

In 2016, we asked groups of 500 GOP and 500 Dem activists via YouGov to tell us who in a pair of senators was more conservative in 3 online surveys throughout the year.

1/ This is a fairly challenging task, since respondents could be asked about any of their party's senators (or centrist out-party senators) at the time. And let's just say not everyone has an opinion about every single senator.

2/ Image
Oct 30, 2020 • 10 tweets • 5 min read
Was Trump's 2016 victory driven more by turnout or persuasion? That question shadowed the 2020 Democratic presidential primary. In this new @monkeycageblog piece I try to answer it, drawing on new research with @seth_j_hill and Greg Huber.

1/n We report results from a new working paper analyzing 6 key states: FL, GA, MI, NV, OH, and PA.

Key difference from prior work--we merge precinct-level election returns with individual-level tabulations from 2012, 2016 voter files.

Paper here: papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cf…

2/n
Oct 29, 2020 • 9 tweets • 3 min read
[THREAD]

I've been fortunate to be able to track the political attitudes of a set of American adults recruited by Knowledge Networks using off-line methods before 2008. I've repeatedly surveyed these folks, most recently via Ipsos 10/7-10/22/20. n=1,131. Some initial results. (By the way, if you are curious for some previous work using this panel, check out these @FiveThirtyEight articles:)

fivethirtyeight.com/features/most-…

fivethirtyeight.com/features/voter…

fivethirtyeight.com/features/why-t…
Jun 9, 2020 • 12 tweets • 5 min read
In early April, @spbhanot and I conducted a survey via @Civiqs to look at how online Pennsylvanians were responding to COVID-19. Now, @abuttenheim joins us for a second wave with many of the same respondents to see what those views look like (May 30-June 2, n=2,045).

[THREAD] In early April, 59% said "We must continue to stay home for as long as necessary, even if the economy suffers." By early June, that was down to 43%, with 46% instead saying "We must reopen the economy as soon as possible, even if more people will get sick." (Had been 27%.) 2/n
Apr 9, 2020 • 8 tweets • 4 min read
I teamed up with @abuttenheim and @spbhanot to administer an online survey via @civiqs of 1,912 Pennsylvania adults April 4th-8th focusing on residents' responses to coronavirus, and am going to tweet some of the topline results in this thread. 1/n When asked about trade-offs between re-opening the economy and keeping it closed to prevent the spread of the virus, 59% said we should "stay home for as long as necessary" while 27% said we should re-open the economy as soon as possible, even if more people get sick." 2/n
Feb 19, 2019 • 10 tweets • 4 min read
With Sen. Sanders throwing his hat into the ring, some data and observations from his 2016 primary campaign... 1/10 As with any political coalition of any meaningful size, Sanders' 2016 supporters weren't all alike. Sanders' 2016 campaign combined voters on the left w/ more disaffected, anti-establishment voters. I wrote about this coalition for @538politics here: fivethirtyeight.com/features/does-… 2/10
Jun 28, 2018 • 7 tweets • 2 min read
Central question w/ Kennedy's retirement is political impact of potentially overturning Roe. My new book "The Increasingly United States" (goo.gl/SgHtsb) provides a way to approach that. Key is to first recognize that nationalization can mean two different things. 1/n Politics can be nationalized when state, national divisions are over similar issues (figures on right side). But politics can also be nationalized when voters care only about nat'l issues, aren't engaged in state or local pol (figures on bottom). 2/n