With two more fires reported today in encampments, there have been seven moderately to super suspicious fires in the last seven days in Toronto homeless camps.

Thread:

👇🏻 1. Last Saturday night between 9-10pm a foam dome was lit on fire at HTO Park (Queens Quay and Spadina). Right by fire station. Residents 100% sure it was started purposefully. No one in it at time or injuries. Police attended, took statements, lied to Sun to say did not.

Thread with some pics and video from @c_shadowspaces and me while doing a month long count/estimate of those living outdoors (none that would give away secret locations - have some of those too). 👇 This is near where Grant Faulkner died in a fire in Scarborough (led to an inquiry). Someone had camped nearby recently and within a 1/2 kilometre there was a hidden structure replete with an extensive garden.

I want to talk for several tweets about this slide from Gord Tanner @cityoftoronto at yesterday's hearing. And about @JohnTory's false assertion today that there are only about 400 people living outdoors in T.O. @dmrider @CBCLorenda @cathyacrowe @cllrainslie @shelleycarroll 1/ Let's start with the very most basic FACT (as Mary Anne Bedard kept saying yesterday, in a verbal tick repeated often by deputants to poke fun):

To say that there are 400+ tents in parks & transportation right of ways right now but only 400 people living outdoor is risible. 2/

The @CityofToronto is flatly lying, as it has for at least a decade, about shelter space being available for people who are homeless. Today, a naive and unjust judge not only let Toronto get away with those lies, but crapped all over some of Toronto's most vulnerable citizens. 1/ So, here's a little story that shows what those who are homeless and those who advocate for them go through trying to get Shelter beds.

"I had extended the stay at the rooming house near Spadina and Dundas for the woman who had reported a sexual assault on June 19, 2/

Is 2020 still competitive (RCP) or not really (538)?

2016
Actual Ntnl: Clinton +2.1
RCP Final: Clinton +3.2 (D+1.1)
538 Final: Clinton +3.9 (D+1.8)

2018
Actual House Ntnl: D+8.6%
RCP Final: D+7.3 (R+1.3)
538 Final (polls only): D+10.2 (D+1.6)

Avg Bias
RCP R+0.1%
538 D+1.7% Look, let's be honest:

If Biden is up

4% in Arizona and Florida
6.5% in Pennsylvania
8%, on average, in Wisconsin, Minnesota, and Michigan

And within a whisker of Texas

Then 538 is actually being generous when it gives Trump a 12% chance of winning.

1/ Analyses of precinct data in NH suggest risk that fractional counting by machine may have moved results by 3-5% of gap between Sanders and Buttigieg. @jvgraz recently discussed 2016 suspicions per Stanford study (see also my work in CP + w/EJUSA and @LuluFriesdat led study). 2/ We cannot draw a conclusion of suspicion about movement from precincts of 349 or less to 350-1999 for Sanders v. Buttigieg. Comparing hand v. scanner counts? Sanders just did better in smallest townships. (Klobuchar diff. *is* suspicious per multivariate regression analysis.)

#10at10 No. 48
2020 Dem Primary Rankings
Full Delegate Proj.➡️Super Tues:
wp.me/P7gBVo-yC

-Warren up 15 delgs., Sanders, Biden, Buttigieg down 7, 7, and 1 respectively
-Sanders now within 0.4% of Biden in polling v. Trump avg., closest in my tracking over a year #10at10 No. 49
2020 Dem Primary Rankings
Full Delegate Proj.➡️Super Tues:
wp.me/P7gBVo-yC

-At 1.1 pt deficit, closest Sanders has been to Biden (also -1.1 Apr 1)
-Bloomberg steadily rising
-Deleg count hidden, updates tonight (IA NH NV SC), throughout week (Super Tues)

Nate Silver remains the most sophisticated of the 8% of Democrats who have a very unfavorable dislike/hatred of Sanders. Watch what he is doing here. He's conceding lots to appear rational, but then he goes with a flat out falsehood. Bernie has don *a ton* to build coalitions. Not only has he done a ton to build coalitions, but it shows in his numbers. He's 1st or 2nd in polling w/People of Color of a wide variety & overall (Biden #1 w/African Americans & overall, Sanders #2 for those & #1 w/ Latin Americans, tied for #1 w/ "other" per Morning Consult.

1/4 Morning Consult polled 2284 people of color regarding the 2020 Democratic Primary in January

RESULTS ALL POC
Biden 21.0%
Sanders 15.7
Harris 5.3
O'Rourke 5.0
Warren 3.4
Booker 2.8
Other* 18.0
Don't Know/No Opinion 28.8

*No other candidate except HRC 2.5% or greater 2/4 Morning Consult polled 1011 African Americans regarding the 2020 Democratic Primary in January

RESULTS BLACK RESPONDENTS
Biden 29.1%
Sanders 13.0
Harris 6.7
O'Rourke 4.0
Booker 3.9
Warren 3.0
Other 16.4
Don't Know/No Opinion 24.0

1/4 Morning Consult has polled 1711 people of color regarding the 2020 Democratic Primary so far in January

RESULTS ALL POC
Biden 20.4%
Sanders 15.5%
O'Rourke 5.1%
Harris 4.6%
Warren 3.9%
Booker 2.5%
Other* 19.4%
Don't Know/No Opinion 28.6%

*No other candidate 2.5% or greater 2/4 Morning Consult has polled 758 black people regarding the 2020 Democratic Primary so far in January

RESULTS AFRICAN AMERICAN RESPONDENTS
Biden 27.8%
Sanders 13.2%
Harris 5.3%
O'Rourke 4.5%
Warren 3.8%
Booker 3.2%
Other* 18.3%
DK/No Opinion 23.9%

@aaronjmate Are we now over 50 major news stories that have had to be reracted or seriously corrected, all in the same direction, wrt Russia since 2016? @aaronjmate I'll start a thread here to count them (I had started one for a CounterPunch article more than a year ago, but gave up partly because the list just kept growing as I tied to write). So:

Let's go through this list from 538 race by race to show why polling is saying "even race" not Dem blowout, shall we?

1/ CA-48 (216 on list): 4 poll in last ~week (538 misses one in its projection). +2, +4, +9.1 GOP. NYT/Siena in field: +3 Dem.

https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1058730542328373249

2/ CA-25 (217 on list): NYT/Siena ending October 28. GOP +4.