Nvidia’s Aggressive Roadmap: Too Fast, Too Furious?

In May 2024, Nvidia unveiled a bold shift to a one-year release cycle for its AI data center chips, ditching the previous two-year pace. It’s a strategy designed to match the breakneck speed of the AI market and keep rivals scrambling. But has Nvidia bitten off more than it can chew? 1/7 $NVDA $TSM $HXSCL #SKhynix #Foxconn #semiconductors #semiconductor 2/7 A design flaw—“100% Nvidia’s fault,” as CEO Jensen Huang admitted—delayed the Blackwell rollout (B100 and B200) by three months. Now, with Blackwell systems finally hitting the market, they’re barreling toward a potential collision with Blackwell Ultra (B300) in the second half of 2025. This overlap could see the two vying for attention, resources, and customer budgets. It’s fair to ask: Did the accelerated design cycle play a role in that flaw slipping through?

Nvidia: Four hyperscalers bought 3.6 million Blackwell chips (B200) so far in 2025
-Blackwell Ultra (B300) and GB300 available from 2nd half 2025
Next gen chip:
-Vera Rubin available 2nd half 2026
-Vera Rubin Ultra in 2027
Next gen:
-Feynman scheduled for 2028
DGX personal AI computers with Blackwell Ultra chips inside
Quantum-X Photonics networking chips due out later 2025
Spectrum-X Photonics chips in 2026
Thread 1/ $NVDA $AMZN $GOOGL $META $MSFT $ORCL $DELL $HPQ $CSCO $SMCI #semiconductors #semiconductor reuters.com/technology/eve…

https://x.com/DylanOnChips/status/1902136100262732232

TSMC Chairman C.C. Wei said its US fabs are already fully booked through 2027, with new 2027 production lines also reserved, media report, adding despite expanded US investments, Taiwan won’t suffer as although 11 new production lines will be built in Taiwan this year, “…it is still not enough,” he said, adding there will be another 10+ more production lines built in Taiwan in the next few years, and even that won’t be enough. 1/5 $TSM $AAPL $NVDA $AVGO $AMD $MRVL $AMAT $ASML $LRCX $TOELY $KLAC #semiconductors #semiconductor money.udn.com/money/story/56… 2/5 TSMC’s Wei made the comments in a joint press conference with Taiwan President William Lai, and made use of the TV cameras by adding that there still isn’t enough land in Taiwan for fabs, to which President Lai immediately said the government will absolutely help provide more land, water and electricity.

Taiwan’s big reaction to TSMC’s US$165 billion investment in the US via the media: a potential real estate bust, losing TSMC technology and the Silicon Shield, more: Thread: 1/7 2/7 Taiwan’s real estate market may be first to feel the impact of TSMC’s big investment in the US, media report, as real estate prices in some local markets soared based on TSMC investment plans which now might not materialize. Examples: the price-per-ping (local measurement) in Hsinchu County’s BaoShan township rose 120%, while Chiayi County’s Puzi City rose 95%. $TSM #semiconductors news.cnyes.com/news/id/5881563

There’s an old saying, “a hammer is a great tool, but not for a window.”

Tariffs are similar: one of many tools, and very effective when used for the right job. In semiconductors, it’s almost always wrong.
Thread 1/25 $TSM $AAPL $NVDA $AVGO $AMZN $MSFT $GOOGL $META $AMAT $LRCX $KLAC #semiconductors #semiconductor 2/25 The aim of promised 100% tariffs on Taiwan semiconductors is to entice Taiwan semiconductor makers to build more fabs in the US, despite TSMC having already opened one fab as part of a US$65 billion investment that will ultimately make the US host to 3 advanced TSMC fabs, the only ones outside of Taiwan.

Repeat: TSMC topped all semiconductor manufacturers in annual 2024 revenue. Thread 1/11 2/11
World’s Top Semiconductor Manufacturers
Full Year 2024 Revenue in US$ dollars
TSMC: $90.08 billion, up 30% from 2023
Samsung (chip division): $84.50 billion, up 65.7%
Intel: $53.10 billion, down 2%
SK Hynix: $48.55 billion, up 93.5%
$TSM $INTC #Samsung #SKhynix #semiconductors

TSMC 4th Quarter Earnings
Revenue NT$868.46 billion (US$26.88 bln)
Gross Margin 59.0% vs guide 57.0% - 59.0%
Optng Margin 49.0% vs guide 46.5% - 48.5%
Net Profit NT$374.47 billion ($11.59 bln) vs NT$370.64 bln expected
EPS NT$14.45 ($2.24 per ADR unit)
Wafer shipments 3.418 million +15.6% yoy
Thread 1/ $TSM $NVDA $AAPL #semiconductors 2/ TSMC Full Year 2024 Earnings
Revenue +33.9% to NT$2.89 trillion (US$90.08 billion)
US$ amount was up 29.99%, vs guide "close to 30%"
Gross Margin 56.1%
Op Margin 45.7%
Net profit NT$1.17 trillion (US$36.49 bln)
EPS NT$45.25
Wafer shipments 12.91 million

With all due respect to former President Trump, Taiwan did not steal the US semiconductor industry.
-Taiwan created trillions $$$ in value for the US chip industry, helping transform it into the juggernaut it is today.
-Taiwan helped save the US chip industry from Japan.
-Taiwan continued manufacturing chips long after it became passé in the US.
Thread 1/17 #semiconductors #semiconductor $TSM $NVDA $AVGO $QCOM $MRVL $AMD 2/17 The top five US chip designers – which would not exist today without TSMC – are worth over US$4.8 trillion in stock market value:
$NVDA $AVGO $AMD $QCOM $MRVL

The Battle for AI Memory Chip Supremacy

In February, Samsung Electronics claimed in a press release it was first in the latest generation of high-end AI memory chips, called HBM (high bandwidth memory), specifically HBM3e 12H.

But reviewing the situation today, not only is Samsung not first, it’s last.

Thread: 1/18
$MU $SSNLF #Samsung #SKhynix #HBM #semiconductors #semiconductor 2/18 Samsung lags

Samsung appears to be around 6-months behind HBM market leader SK Hynix Inc., and at least 3-months behind Micron Technology, an unfamiliar position for the perennial memory chip leader.

Memory bandwidth is a key bottleneck in AI servers, and the answer is better HBM memory chips, which are technically difficult to make and therefore command higher prices. $MU $SSNLF #Samsung #SKhynix #HBM

Reuters: Israel's Mossad spy agency planted explosives inside 5,000 Taiwan-made pagers ordered by Lebanese group Hezbollah months before Tuesday's detonations, which killed 9 people and wounded nearly 3,000 others. The pagers were made by Taiwan's Gold Apollo and arrived in the spring. Gold Apollo said it did not make the pagers. reuters.com/world/middle-e… Gold Apollo’s founder said the pagers were made by a company in Europe that had the right to use the Taiwanese firm's brand, but did not name the firm. "We are a responsible company. This is very embarrassing," he said. reuters.com/world/middle-e…

Intel CEO announcement:
-Intel manufacturing operations to become independent subsidiary
-CEO clear that chip design and manufacturing stay together
-Intel will sell part of stake in Altera
-Intel taking steps to prioritize x86 CPU businesses
-Several divisions to be reorganized, including automotive and edge, photonics
Thread 1/3 $INTC $TSM $SSNLF #Samsung #semiconductors 2/3 Intel Cost Cutting:
-To cut costs $10 billion, slash 15,000 jobs by year end
-Delay Germany, Poland plants by 2-years
-Malaysia plant on hold until demand picks up
-No changes to US manufacturing expansion
-Intel to close 2/3s of global office locations

TSMC held its annual shareholders’ meeting on Tuesday, June 4.

Highlights from media reports. Thread: /9
$TSM $NVDA $AMD #semiconductors #semiconductor 1/9 New TSMC Chair and CEO C.C. Wei:

Q: Which company does TSMC like more and which is more important, Nvidia or AMD?

C.C. Wei: We have great relationships with both companies.

SK Hynix 1st Quarter (Q1) Takeaways
Revenue: ₩12.43 trillion won (US$9.35 billion) +144% year-on-year
Operating profit: ₩2.89 trillion versus loss ₩3.40 trillion last year
Net profit ₩1.92 trillion versus loss ₩2.59 trillion
Gross Margin 39% versus 20% in Q4
Thread 1/15 2/15 SK Hynix Q1
In the seasonally weak 1st quarter, revenue hit an all-time-high for the period, and 2nd highest operating profit.

Due mainly to a “clear rebound following a prolonged downturn” on increased sales of AI server products, including HBM (high bandwidth memory) chips

(SK Hynix is Nvidia’s main HBM chip supplier. HBM is the AI memory chip)

TSMC to 2-nanometers and Beyond

AMD CTO Mark Papermaster sat down with TSMC Co-COO Y.J. Mii to ask:

‘‘Have we run into the fundamental limits of physics or will innovation prevail again?”

(Can we keep shrinking transistors on chips?)

Thread 1/10 $TSM $AMD #semiconductors 2/10 TSMC’s Mii: Developing manufacturing processes in the 2nm and beyond age takes longer.

“In the past, indeed, it probably took 2-3 years to get things done, but right now because technology is more and more challenging, it takes more time, sometimes 5-years or even 7-years,” said Mii.

TSMC’s net profit rose 8.9% year-on-year to NT$225.5 billion (US$7.17 billion) in the 1st quarter

Beat consensus' NT$217.2 billion (US$6.71 billion)

Revenue fell 3.8% to US$18.87 billion, but beat guidance.

Thread 1/x $TSM #semiconductors #semiconductor
investor.tsmc.com/english/quarte… 2/x TSMC 1st quarter (Q1) earnings

TSMC’s revenue fell during the weak season for smartphone sales, but strong demand for chips used in high performance computing provided a boost

Gross margin was 53.1%, versus guidance 52-54%

Operating margin was 42%, vs guide 40-42%

TSMC’s 4th quarter investors' conference was a treasure trove of information about the company and its prospects for 2024.

Key takeaways: 1/15 $TSM #semiconductors #semiconductor 2/15 AI opportunity

Through 2027, TSMC will see a “high teens” percent of revenue “from a very narrowly defined” AI application processor. - CEO

The yearly growth rate (CAGR) of AI at TSMC is about 50% “and we are confident that we can capture more opportunities in the future."
$TSM #semiconductors

In 2023, TSMC became the world’s biggest #semiconductor maker by revenue, topping Intel and Samsung Electronics for the 1st time.

2023 Revenue in US dollars
TSMC: $69.30 billion
Intel: $54.23 billion
Samsung (chip division): $50.99 billion
Thread 1/9 $TSM $INTC #Samsung 2/9 TSMC is the first newcomer to the top spot since Samsung toppled Intel in 2017.

Intel had been No. 1 for decades – since 1992 when it bested Japan’s NEC Corp.

$TSM $INTC #Samsung #semiconductors #semiconductor

Apple Silicon and TSMC - Thread 1/11
Apple Silicon lead Johny Srouji, and John Ternus, senior VP hardware engineering, talked about the marriage of hardware, Silicon, software, and TSMC during a CNBC interview.
$AAPL $TSM #semiconductors #semiconductor 2/11 Ternus:
“We’ve always had an incredible design team and we made these beautiful products, but they were constrained by what was available. And I think one of the most – if not the most – profound change at Apple, certainly in our products over the last 20-years, is how we now do so many of those technologies in house, and you know, top of the list of course is Silicon…”

Nvidia received a stern warning from US Commerce Secretary Raimondo on China export controls, media report:
“If you redesign a chip around a particular cut line that enables them to do AI, I’m going to control it the very next day,” she said, in a speech. 1/3 $NVDA #semiconductors 2/2 She urged Silicon Valley executives, US allies, others, to stop China from getting semiconductors and cutting-edge technologies vital to US national security, calling Beijing "the biggest threat we've ever had" and stressed "China is not our friend".

TSMC 2nd Quarter Earnings

Revenue -13.7% year-on-year to US$15.68 billion, at high end of guidance: US$15.2-$16 billion

NT$ Revenue NT$480.84 bln, market expected NT$476.2 bln

Gross Margin 54.1% vs guidance 52%-54%

Operating Margin 42% vs guide 39.5%-41.5%

Net Profit -23.3%… twitter.com/i/web/status/1… 2/x TSMC 2nd Quarter (Q2) $TSM

Q2 wafer shipments fell 9.6% to 2.916 million wafers from 3.227 million in the 1st quarter (Q1).

$TSM #semiconductors

KLA Corp. #semiconductor equipment maker.
Dec. quarter earnings:
Revenue US$2.98 billion vs analysts estimated $2.81 bln
Net Profit $978.8 bln
EPS (Adjusted): $7.38 vs estimated $7.01
2022 Revenue +28% to $10.5 bln
Free Cash Flow +18% to $3 bln
Inventories $2.535 bln
$KLAC 1/8 2/8 KLA Outlook
Calendar year 2023 “will be a year of contraction after 3 strong years of growth,” as industry spending slows due to rising macroeconomic concerns, KLA said.
-WFE (wafer fab equipment) demand seen -20% from 2022’s $94-$95 billion (to around $75 billion) $KLAC