Dan Nystedt Profile picture
Former journalist, now financial analyst. Based in East Asia. Tweet mainly about semiconductors and Taiwan. No investment advice given. Views are my own.
14 Oct
TSMC on Japan fab: plans to build a specialty technology fab in Japan, subject to board approval. Japanese government supports the plan. Will build a 22-28nm process technology #semiconductor fab. Fab construction to begin in 2022, and mass production expected in 2024. $TSM
2/? TSMC 3Q Call
TSMC CEO CC Wei: We are confident we will retain our technology leadership. 2nm technology, density and performance will be the most competitive in 2025 and GAA structure is being considered, but won't say more today. (paraphrasing). $TSM
3/? TSMC 3Q Call

CEO CC Wei: "We are entering a period of higher structural growth" due to 5G, HPC and massive new demand for energy efficient computing, which will require leading edge technologies.

"We expect our capacity to remain tight in 2021 and throughout 2022."
Read 12 tweets
13 Sep
Taiwan newspapers are full of Apple stories as #AppleEvent looms (9/14 Tuesday) with expected #iPhone13 launch.
Thread #Apple 1/5
#Apple 2/5
Taiwan contract iPhone assembly firms Foxconn (Hon Hai) and Pegatron are working overtime to meet demand, media report, with Foxconn said to have hired more than 100,000 additional workers in Zhengzhou to meet production needs. $AAPL
#Apple 3/5
Foxconn (Hon Hai) is expected to remain the biggest iPhone assembler at 65%-70%, compared to Pegatron at 25%, mainly iPhone 13 and #iPhone13 mini, Taiwan media report, adding China's LuxShare Precision will assemble around 5% of iPhones this year.
Read 6 tweets
12 Sep
Tech Industry Analysis:

Legendary investor Stan Druckenmiller tells a story of turning in his first report as a young analyst, very proud of his fundamental research, charts and analysis.

“This is useless,” said his boss. “What makes the stock go up and down?”

Thread 1/14
2/14 Benton Rules

That simple question made him change his entire approach:

“Thereafter, I focused my analysis on seeking to identify the factors that were strongly correlated to the stock’s price movement as opposed to looking at all the fundamentals.”
3/14 Benton Rules

In that spirit, here are the Rules for Technology Stocks set down by Dan Benton, when he was a top ranked PC analyst at Goldman Sachs (1988 – 1993). Much of it remains valid today.
Read 16 tweets
5 Sep

Notes from IDC #semiconductor market briefing by VP Mario Morales, head of semiconductors (30-year veteran) 9/2/2021 on Zoom.

Great presentation.

#IDC 1/16
#IDC 2/16

IDC forecasts the 2021 #semiconductor market will grow 17.3% to US$545.0 billion led by phones, laptops, servers, automotive, smarthome, gaming, wearables and Wi-Fi, with increased memory prices.

The market will grow 4% in 2022 and 0.3% in 2023 to $568.4 bln.
#IDC 3/16

Without shortages, #semiconductor market growth would have been over 20% this year, with the bullish case close to 25%.
Read 16 tweets
16 Jul
TSMC thread 1/? - several non-financial notes of interest from TSMC's earnings call yesterday: $TSM #semiconductor
#2 TSMC in Japan $TSM
TSMC is doing due diligence now for a specialty technology wafer fab in Japan. No final decision yet.
Over 20 companies have joined the advanced chip packaging technology R&D initiative led by TSMC. The project is aimed at HPC (high performance computing).
#3 TSMC Arizona $TSM
TSMC expects 5nm production at the #Arizona fab to begin in the 1st quarter of 2024, but TSMC hopes it will start earlier. AND
“We do not rule out the possibility of a 2nd phase of expansion to meet our customers’ strong demand,” Chairman Mark Liu.
Read 11 tweets