Dan Nystedt Profile picture
Former journalist, now financial analyst. Based in Taipei. Tweet mainly about semiconductors and Taiwan. Not investment advice. Views are my own.
Feb 14 17 tweets 4 min read
TSMC’s 4th quarter investors' conference was a treasure trove of information about the company and its prospects for 2024.

Key takeaways: 1/15 $TSM #semiconductors #semiconductor 2/15 AI opportunity

Through 2027, TSMC will see a “high teens” percent of revenue “from a very narrowly defined” AI application processor. - CEO

The yearly growth rate (CAGR) of AI at TSMC is about 50% “and we are confident that we can capture more opportunities in the future."
$TSM #semiconductors
Feb 4 5 tweets 2 min read
In 2023, TSMC became the world’s biggest #semiconductor maker by revenue, topping Intel and Samsung Electronics for the 1st time.

2023 Revenue in US dollars
TSMC: $69.30 billion
Intel: $54.23 billion
Samsung (chip division): $50.99 billion
Thread 1/9 $TSM $INTC #Samsung Image 2/9 TSMC is the first newcomer to the top spot since Samsung toppled Intel in 2017.

Intel had been No. 1 for decades – since 1992 when it bested Japan’s NEC Corp.

$TSM $INTC #Samsung #semiconductors #semiconductor
Dec 25, 2023 12 tweets 3 min read
Apple Silicon and TSMC - Thread 1/11
Apple Silicon lead Johny Srouji, and John Ternus, senior VP hardware engineering, talked about the marriage of hardware, Silicon, software, and TSMC during a CNBC interview.
$AAPL $TSM #semiconductors #semiconductor 2/11 Ternus:
“We’ve always had an incredible design team and we made these beautiful products, but they were constrained by what was available. And I think one of the most – if not the most – profound change at Apple, certainly in our products over the last 20-years, is how we now do so many of those technologies in house, and you know, top of the list of course is Silicon…”
Dec 3, 2023 5 tweets 2 min read
Nvidia received a stern warning from US Commerce Secretary Raimondo on China export controls, media report:
“If you redesign a chip around a particular cut line that enables them to do AI, I’m going to control it the very next day,” she said, in a speech. 1/3 $NVDA #semiconductors 2/2 She urged Silicon Valley executives, US allies, others, to stop China from getting semiconductors and cutting-edge technologies vital to US national security, calling Beijing "the biggest threat we've ever had" and stressed "China is not our friend".
Jul 20, 2023 15 tweets 4 min read
TSMC 2nd Quarter Earnings

Revenue -13.7% year-on-year to US$15.68 billion, at high end of guidance: US$15.2-$16 billion

NT$ Revenue NT$480.84 bln, market expected NT$476.2 bln

Gross Margin 54.1% vs guidance 52%-54%

Operating Margin 42% vs guide 39.5%-41.5%

Net Profit -23.3%… twitter.com/i/web/status/1… 2/x TSMC 2nd Quarter (Q2) $TSM

Q2 wafer shipments fell 9.6% to 2.916 million wafers from 3.227 million in the 1st quarter (Q1).

$TSM #semiconductors
Jan 27, 2023 9 tweets 4 min read
KLA Corp. #semiconductor equipment maker.
Dec. quarter earnings:
Revenue US$2.98 billion vs analysts estimated $2.81 bln
Net Profit $978.8 bln
EPS (Adjusted): $7.38 vs estimated $7.01
2022 Revenue +28% to $10.5 bln
Free Cash Flow +18% to $3 bln
Inventories $2.535 bln
$KLAC 1/8 2/8 KLA Outlook
Calendar year 2023 “will be a year of contraction after 3 strong years of growth,” as industry spending slows due to rising macroeconomic concerns, KLA said.
-WFE (wafer fab equipment) demand seen -20% from 2022’s $94-$95 billion (to around $75 billion) $KLAC
Jan 26, 2023 5 tweets 2 min read
“The US government's new restrictions on sales of equipment, parts, and services for specific technologies and customers in China are further impacting equipment demand in a declining market,” said Tim Archer, CEO of US chip equipment giant Lam Research. 1/4 $LRCX #semiconductor 2/4 Lam forecast the China export restrictions would cost US$2 billion to $2.5 billion in sales in 2023, ¾ on the system side and ¼ on the services side of its business. $LRCX #semiconductor
Jan 25, 2023 15 tweets 4 min read
ASML 4th quarter 2022 beat analysts’ estimates
Net sales €6.4 billion vs estimate €6.38 billion
Gross margin 51.5% vs 54.2% in Q4 2021
Operating margin 33.0% vs 40.7%
Net profit €1.82 bln vs estimate €1.7 bln
EPS €4.60
Accelerated "fast shipments on DUV" in Q4
1/15 $ASML 2/15 Taiwan continued to be the main buyer of ASML systems in the 4th quarter.
ASML net system sales €4.748 billion in the 4th quarter versus €4.255 billion in the 3rd quarter $TSM $ASML Image
Jan 25, 2023 6 tweets 2 min read
ASML CEO Peter Wennink expects a political decision on semiconductor technology exports to China that the U.S. deems sensitive “sooner rather than later” due to “time pressure,” he said in a media Q&A ahead of ASML’s 4th quarter earnings call. 1/3 $ASML #China #semiconductor 2/3 In a statement, he said “The facts are that nothing really changed since the October regulations that came out of the United States. Which actually means that we will not ship EUV to China for instance. But we can still ship DUV and metrology and inspection tools.” $ASML
Jan 13, 2023 9 tweets 4 min read
TSMC 4th quarter (Q4) earnings News roundup

Most of the information can be found in this thread from yesterday:

But media added some nice info and I missed a few key items.
1/8
2/8 TSMC Q4
$TSM US-listed shares closed +6.4% at $87
-4Q gross margin (GM) 62.2% beat analysts’ estimates 60.1%
4Q22 operating margin (OM) 52%, beat estimated 50%
Net profit NT$295.9 bln beat estimated NT$287.8 bln
EPS NT$11.41
Quarterly record highs: GM, OM, net profit, EPS
Jan 12, 2023 26 tweets 5 min read
TSMC 4th Quarter Earnings Jan. 12

Net Revenue +26.7% year-on-year to US$19.93 billion, at low-end of $19.9-$20.7 billion guidance

Net Revenue (NT$) +42.8% to NT$625.53 billion
Net Profit +78% to NT$295.9 billion
GM 62.2% vs guide 59.5-61.5
OM 52% vs guide 49-51
$TSM Thread 1/x 2/x TSMC 4th Quarter (Q4) $TSM

Q4 wafer shipments fell 6.8% to 3.702 million wafers from 3.974 million in the 3rd quarter.
Dec 15, 2022 4 tweets 1 min read
ASML CEO Peter Wennink pushed back against new U.S. export rules on China, saying his company has already sacrificed enough and the new rules are unnecessary, media report. ASML has been restricted from selling its most advanced machines (EUV) to China since 2019 - 1/3 $ASML 2/3 $ASML
and U.S. rivals benefit by selling alternative technology, he reportedly said, adding "it is common knowledge that chip technology for purely military applications is usually 10, 15 years old. (Yet) the technology used to make such chips can still be sold to China."
Dec 4, 2022 15 tweets 4 min read
TSMC Arizona has turned into a Chinese Communist Party (CCP, China) talking point, with scary stories daily.

Example:
“The U.S. is turning TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co) into ASMC (American SMC)," and no Taiwan politician dares say no to the U.S.

Thread 1/9 $TSM 2/9
It looks like a CCP effort to hurt U.S.-Taiwan relations.

What’s most disappointing is the lack of creativity – the perpetrators clearly know little about the semiconductor industry.
#semiconductor $TSM
Oct 15, 2022 11 tweets 4 min read
TSMC 3rd Quarter Earnings Call Extras

-N7 weakness impact on Kaohsiung project
-N3, N3E and N2 details
-TSMC CEO on scaling
-Inventories at 25-year high?
-Overseas fab projects
-Final financials

1/11 Thread $TSM #semiconductors 2/11 N7 and Kaohsiung fab
N7, N6 capacity utilization in Q4 and 1st half 2023 will be down due to weakness in smartphones, PCs and product delays by customers.

Kaohsiung fab plan impacted:
2 fabs planned initially for Kaohsiung, 28nm and N7, “but N7 has been adjusted.”-CEO
$TSM
Oct 13, 2022 20 tweets 3 min read
TSMC 3rd Quarter Results
Revenue US$20.23 billion vs guidance $19.8–20.6 billion
Revenue NT$613.14 billion (guidance NT$588.06-NT$611.82 billion)
Q3 gross margin 60.4% vs guidance 57.5%-59.5%
Q3 Operating Margin 50.6% vs guidance 47%-49%
$TSM 1/x 2/x TSMC Q3
TSMC Net Profit NT$280.87 billion vs consensus estimate NT$264.8 billion

Earnings Per Share NT$10.83 vs consensus NT$10.26
EPS in USD US$1.79

$TSM
Sep 25, 2022 9 tweets 3 min read
The chief technology officer of ASML said high-NA may be the end of the line for lithography.

"For years, I’ve been suspecting that high-NA will be the last NA, and this belief hasn’t changed.” said Martin van den Brink, in an interview with Bits & Chips.
1/9 Thread $ASML 2/9 ASML CTO
ASML is researching the successor to high-NA, called hyper-NA. But the cost of hyper-NA may be too high.

“If the cost of hyper-NA grows as fast as we’ve seen in high-NA, it will pretty much be economically unfeasible,” Van den Brink said.
#Semiconductors $ASML
Sep 25, 2022 4 tweets 3 min read
TechInsights: Apple iPhone 14 Teardown (more chips)

iPhone 14 processor: A15 Bionic
RAM: LPDDR4x memory
(Same as iPhone 13)
iPhone 14 has new circuit/main board compared to iPhone 13, despite same A15 processor

1/4 Thread $APPL #iPhone14 #Semiconductors 2/4 TechInsights iPhone 14 Teardown

iPhone 14 Pro and Pro Max
Processor: A16 Bionic and
RAM: LPDDR5 memory

“Their use of LPDDR5 may prove how efficient the A16 Bionic performs and that the processor does not need more than 6 GB of RAM.”
$APPL #iPhone14 #Semiconductors
Sep 22, 2022 4 tweets 2 min read
TSMC will give NT$16,000 employee bonuses (non-management) and NT$2,000 shopping vouchers for Sports Day 2022 on 10/15, media report, despite the event being cancelled for a 3rd year due to Covid. The total payment: NT$800 million (US$25.5 million). $TSM ctee.com.tw/news/tech/7205… Related: The turnover rate among new TSMC employees (less than 1-year) hit 17.6% last year, above its 15% target and the 6.8% rate among all employees, media report, speculating 12-hour shifts to be the key problem, despite that being normal in industry. chinatimes.com/realtimenews/2…
Sep 21, 2022 4 tweets 1 min read
A survey of Taiwan citizens found only 30% believe Taiwan could win a conflict with China, while 51% said China would win, and the rest of those polled were undecided, media report. In a separate survey, by the ChinaPower Project, 64 experts, including former US officials, found 63% believe China will invade Taiwan within 10-years, and 100% believe the US would intervene to defend Taiwan.
Aug 15, 2022 4 tweets 1 min read
The US is moving forward with bilateral trade talks with Taiwan, and expects announcements in coming days, media report, citing Kurt Campbell, deputy assistant to President Biden, and coordinator for the Indo-Pacific. Campbell: "We’ll continue... to deepen our ties with Taiwan, including through continuing to advance our economic and trade relationship. For example, we’re developing an ambitious roadmap for trade negotiations, which we intend to announce in the coming days." (press briefing)
Aug 14, 2022 26 tweets 5 min read
Ex-TSMC R&D boss Shang-yi Chiang made headlines last week over a Computer History Museum interview. Chiang was vital to TSMC's success. When he joined TSMC in 1997, it was a technology laggard. When he retired in 2013, it was an industry leader. $TSM #semiconductors
Thread 1/25 2/25 Chiang: Employees, the key to TSMC's success
“0.13 micron (130-nanometers, in year 2000) was a very important node for TSMC because we became the first one in the world to deliver manufacturing wafer of copper and low-K. I remember going, "Wow! This company did something."