President of Spectra Markets. Author of AM/FX and Alpha Trader. I like trading, table tennis, my family, writing, hard/fast music, and poker. Not in that order.
1 added to My Authors
Jan 17 • 4 tweets • 2 min read
Doing some research on Canada and found this interesting, so thought I'd share. Thoughts on possible implications going forward are welcome, especially from Ottawa legend @EconguyRosie
Canadian immigration has remained strong despite COVID while death rates from the pandemic have been about 1/3 of those in the US. These are the obvious explanations but I'm sure there are many others.
Jan 5 • 4 tweets • 1 min read
QT is back. 2018 equity scars: Still visible!
“the appropriate pace of balance sheet runoff would likely be faster than it was during the previous normalization episode”
"Some observed that the balance sheet could potentially shrink faster than last time..."
"the appropriate timing of balance sheet runoff would likely be closer to that of policy rate liftoff than in the Committee’s previous experience. They noted that current conditions included a stronger economic outlook, higher inflation, and a larger balance sheet..."
Dec 3, 2021 • 4 tweets • 1 min read
How ludicrous is current monetary policy? Very.
The x-axis is unemployment rate, the y-axis is inflation, and the size of the bubble shows the Fed Funds rate. That is, a large bubble means the Fed Funds rate is high and small means it’s low. Red bubble is current policy.
Small bubbles should be policy in the bottom right corner (low inflation, high UR). Not upper left!!! Policy is consistent with an unemployment rate around 9% or 10% and CPI below 3%. Bonkers.
Nov 24, 2021 • 4 tweets • 2 min read
Much in the way weak USD and Fed easing is bullish crypto, this hawkish Fed capitulation is bearish crypto.
Structural🚀markets still have massive ↓ cycles.
Chart: BTC YoY return (lighter line, left y-axis) and JPEMFX YoY (darker line, right y-axis). ↓EMFX is same as ↑USD.
Also note we are in the worst part of the 4-year bitcoin halving cycle. Here's a chart of the three main halving cycles. Each halving cycle has been progressively less bullish in magnitude. That is part of why the residual from the Plan B model gets bigger and bigger. @profplum99
Oct 21, 2021 • 4 tweets • 1 min read
Wall Street's adoption of BTC reminds me of how I felt when first skateboarding, then grunge, then EDM were co-opted by the corporate machine. Can something be Good and fully co-opted by the machine… At the same time? Maybe!
Can bitcoin make the world better, and also be fully financialized and co-opted by Wall Street? Maybe! Probably!
"The test of a first-rate intelligence is the ability to hold two opposed ideas in mind at the same time and still retain the ability to function."
Oct 18, 2021 • 5 tweets • 2 min read
Every one one of these highly-publicized BTC ripper events has been a short-term buy the rumor / sell the fact (e.g., launch of BTC futures 2017, Coinbase IPO, Elon on SNL 2021, BTC day in El Salvador…)
I don’t see why this one should be different.
Three charts + more... 2/3
There is a massive wall of leveraged spec money front-running the ETF launch and the product is likely to meet limp demand. This ETF is a distraction for anyone that really cares about bitcoin and it’s a trap for any short-term trader expecting huge inflows.
Oct 14, 2021 • 4 tweets • 1 min read
AUDJPY and BTC still both risky assets and somewhat joined at the hip with BTC leading more often and AUDJPY lagging.
Blue line is bitcoin, black is AUDJPY. Hourly since late August... 2/3
Hourly back to late 2020
Sep 22, 2021 • 4 tweets • 1 min read
Today's AM/FX non sequitur triggered some excitement and many smart people offered good explanations. Here is the best one:
Most of the U.S. airports (roughly 12,900 of the 13,513 that you mention) are class E or uncontrolled airspace airports usable by small craft ...
... (think Cessna 172). Of the ones usable by jet traffic, there are:
40 Class B airports (e.g. JFK, BOS, SFC)
116 Class C airports (Albany)
474 Class D airports (Westchester County)
My hunch (from having flown over various parts of the world piloting a large size PJ) ...
Jul 24, 2021 • 5 tweets • 2 min read
1 of 4
Could be a good week for AUDJPY. Ozzie CPI odds favor a beat based on recent correlated data from TDMI + NZ + USA.
Another reason AU CPI could beat is the tendency for economists to anchor on prior (unrealistically low) data. Meanwhile, stonks and crypto show the way...
Note AUDJPY struggled after BTC peaked the night of @elonmusk on SNL (see chart, BTC orange, AUDJPY blue) then dumped a few weeks after BTC dumped.
Now crypto looks bottomy. Commodities V-shaped and blowoff bottom in many altcoins. See chart of MATIC, for example.
Jul 19, 2021 • 6 tweets • 2 min read
New, interesting and relevant: Fed / Yale paper on stablecoins and wildcat banking.
"Taming wildcat stablecoins"
Love this in the opening paragraph... Passive/aggressive choice of terminology... "The first category of cryptocurrencies includes those not backed by anything, like Bitcoin. We call these “fiat cryptocurrencies.” Their defining feature is that they have no intrinsic value."
Jun 4, 2021 • 4 tweets • 3 min read
The demise of the dollar has been a popular media story throughout my entire life. Consume such stories with the understanding they have been around for 50 years. A few examples...
Jun 3, 2021 • 5 tweets • 2 min read
Survey result 1. Economist estimates are much more clustered toward the mean than my survey respondents’ guesses because anonymous survey participants are not worried about looking stupid, unlike economists making public forecasts.
This is a known bias in economic forecasts.
Survey result 2. Question asked for your 80 percent confidence range for NFP this Friday.
Median range bottom 300
Median range top 900
A true surprise needs to be outside that range IMO
There is a persistent day of the week effect in bitcoin. Sundays are red and Mondays are black. It has been particularly extreme since 2020 but even looking back to the 2014-2017 period, you can see it’s strong.
Any guesses why? All the true believing hodlers are in church?
In a market that trades 24/7, nobody can trade all the time. Since the trend / bias has been strongly in favor of buying throughout bitcoin’s history, maybe any drop in activity is bearish (or at least less bullish)? Sunday is the lowest volume day of the week for BTC