We continue our tour of special elections data today with results from the 2024 cycle. And it’s nothing but good news for Democrats. We’re looking at an election cycle that – so far – looks a lot like 2018. 1/

(Also posted to 🟦&🧵)

Link to post: dailykos.com/stories/2023/1… All the results for D vs. R specials can be found here: 2/

Link: docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d…

We’re taking a close look at updated special elections data this week. Up first: Comparing specials to presidential results. 1/

(Also posted to 🧵& 🟦)

link to post: dailykos.com/stories/2023/1… This is only possible because we started calculating and publishing presidential results by legislative district. 2/

Link: #electionsdailykos.com/stories/2013/0…

Looks like the suddenly silent Trafalgar may have hoist themselves upon their own petard. Let me explain.
Trafalgar claims to account for social desirability bias in polling by asking who the respondent’s neighbors are voting for. 1/
realclearpolitics.com/articles/2018/… And this year the media has for a long time noted (correctly, I might add) that midterms usually suck for the party that holds the presidency. This would probably influence how people think their neighbors are voting. 2/

reuters.com/graphics/USA-E…

Absolutely insane turnout numbers in Kansas. General election-level turnout, but in a primary. Abortion on the ballot drove turnout through the roof. 1/ It wasn't just higher Democratic turnout, either. Republican turnout increased by even more, in absolute numbers. And unaffiliated voters had something to vote for this year. 2/

Several blocks in downtown Chicago are not part of *any* congressional district (new or old). How on earth is this possible? The answer involves billions of dollars, brothels, Abraham Lincoln, and a bit of geomorphology. 1/

New IL map: google.com/maps/d/u/1/vie… The census blocks in question include parts of Loews Hotel Tower (built 2015), 440 N McClurg Ct (built 1991), and Ogden Plaza Park. None of these blocks have any population in the 2020 census (this is not a coincidence, as we’ll see later). 2/
google.com/maps/@41.89025…

Two new House retirements in two days. Republicans are just shy of where they were at this point in the cycle as far as raw numbers... 1/ ...and just ahead of where they were in terms of percent of seats. 2/

Last week @DavidLJarman wrote about where congressional districts fall along the lines of diversity and education. Let’s explore this a little more along the rural/urban gradient, using @dhmontgomery's classifications. 1/

dailykos.com/stories/2019/1…

citylab.com/equity/2018/11… Pure Urban: a mixture of districts from low ed, low white to high ed, medium white, but entirely Democratic 2/

Today, a closer look at special elections as specials wind down. Part 1: Is the Democratic advantage in specials disappearing, after a huge bounce in winter? At first glance, it looks like it, but… 1/8

dailykos.com/stories/2018/6… … it’s an illusion. After accounting for the types of districts holding elections, performance is pretty darn flat over the entire cycle. 2/8