Managing Director-Capital Allocation @Hedgeye. Former founding CEO/CIO at TIFF (https://t.co/kuW5wdUMKt) & Partner at GMO (https://t.co/zGLVsvqgJa). Views are my own & not investment advice.
May 4, 2023 • 12 tweets • 5 min read
One privilege among many of working @Hedgeye is ready access to vast reservoirs of data, including those needed to ponder sensibly a key quandary confronting stewards of long-term capital. Herewith a data-laden 🧵that sheds potentially useful light on this quandary.
@Hedgeye The quandary: given the huge opportunity costs of missing stocks' "best" days, it seems perilous at best for stewards of long-term capital to exit the stock market—materially or wholly—with the aim of re-entering when stocks' expected returns have risen to more attractive levels.
Mar 13, 2019 • 4 tweets • 1 min read
1/ In an earlier life, I focused on the law (and am still a member of the bar). Donning my legal cap for a min., I infer from Boeing's present posture re its 737 Max that it assigns a vanishingly low probability to a repeat of Lion Air 610 or Ethiopian Airlines 302.
2/ Stating the obvious, if Boeing stands by while 737 Max's continue to fly pending definitive conclusions on the causes of 610's & 302's tragic ends, AND another Max goes down, Boeing's current market cap of ~$210B won't be nearly enough to cover legal claims it'll face.