One privilege among many of working @Hedgeye is ready access to vast reservoirs of data, including those needed to ponder sensibly a key quandary confronting stewards of long-term capital. Herewith a data-laden 🧵that sheds potentially useful light on this quandary. @Hedgeye The quandary: given the huge opportunity costs of missing stocks' "best" days, it seems perilous at best for stewards of long-term capital to exit the stock market—materially or wholly—with the aim of re-entering when stocks' expected returns have risen to more attractive levels.

1/ In an earlier life, I focused on the law (and am still a member of the bar). Donning my legal cap for a min., I infer from Boeing's present posture re its 737 Max that it assigns a vanishingly low probability to a repeat of Lion Air 610 or Ethiopian Airlines 302. 2/ Stating the obvious, if Boeing stands by while 737 Max's continue to fly pending definitive conclusions on the causes of 610's & 302's tragic ends, AND another Max goes down, Boeing's current market cap of ~$210B won't be nearly enough to cover legal claims it'll face.