Duckman1717 Profile picture
Hunter, fisherman, dog lover, and Portfolio Manager for a private fund. Disclaimer: Trade at your own risk. All opinions are my own and not investment advice.
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Mar 10, 2021 18 tweets 3 min read
I'll start with the fact that I have no idea if the bottom is in or not and that I bought and held all new buys today. My gauge for this market has been and will continue to be $TSLA. So it makes sense for me to position myself heavier into this name as it proves itself. The art of trading and investing can be a difficult one to navigate without rules and risk management. Two of my favorite books (I've said this many times over) are HTMMIS and the Lifecycle Trade book.
Jan 25, 2021 5 tweets 1 min read
Seeing some blow off moves in the following names:


Watch for leaders to top in concert. My caution flag is up for sure at the moment. Especially with new purchases. There is still lots of week left certainly so I'll be watching these and the TMLs and other leaders closely. After going through all the charts, today felt more like churning (a form of distribution) than accumulation despite the u-turns.
Jan 25, 2021 5 tweets 2 min read
What’s interesting is that the $QQQ got 12.46% above the 10 week line at the highs in the week of September 4th, 2020 before the market corrected. We’re currently set to open at around 6.6% above the 10 week line if this is the high of week. Short-term, the market is certainly well within its right to pullback 5% from highs and be totally normal which will put us at or below the 21ema on the $QQQ. I evaluate my portfolio for stocks lagging or gains that are mediocre in gap up mornings like this to sell into.
Oct 16, 2020 9 tweets 3 min read
Let’s talk psychology and mental toughness. This game is designed to beat you up. For the most part, this year has been extremely bountiful and it has programmed most into thinking that #stonks only go up. But at some point, they will ring the bell. They always do. The veterans on this platform can all agree that this year really is an anomaly. These years just don’t happen that often. That’s why it’s up to you have rules and the mental toughness to follow your rules. Rules are easy to design and develop but HARD AS HELL TO FOLLOW.
Oct 14, 2020 7 tweets 2 min read
Game Plan on $FSLY: Tomorrow and Friday are obviously important days. I want to see how the stock acts around long-term support. The story fundamentally has changed as the company has guided rev. downward due to TikTok loss of income. WON says in his book and talks about watching for changes to stories. I have a pretty concentrated position in this at 27.6% in my account and an 11% position in the managed accounts. So does this suck? Yes, but thankfully great cost basis helped with the cushioning the blow.
Sep 25, 2020 7 tweets 2 min read
Lots of folks are saying we need more bases to increase our chances of a successful FTD (which I agree with partially) but that is so not 2020. Anyone remember how many bases there were in April as well as breakouts? I can think of VRTX. (1 of...) Maybe a few others but there wasn’t much. Point is, the more years and corrections I log doing this, the more I realize that you don’t need a fully formed base to buy a stock on or even before a FTD (when that day comes). (2 of...)
Sep 25, 2020 4 tweets 2 min read
When I scroll through the weekly charts of TMLs and leaders, stuff just doesn’t look all that bad. It doesn’t really feel like a top was made. The weekly’s look normal, natural, concerted, and stabilized in their pullbacks. It almost looks controlled in nature. Here’s what I see: If you compare the selling on the left side of these bases to the TMLs during any Bear Market, it’s like fitting a square peg through a round hole. BUT if you compare these pullbacks to any normal intermediate term correction, it fits really well. See below.
Sep 15, 2020 4 tweets 1 min read
Another solid day in leaders but it is clear that the big liquids (AMZN, MSFT, AAPL, GOOGL) are struggling a bit. This in it of itself is causing the to look a little flaccid (couldn't figure out a better word). This indicates to me that another PB is coming but the key will be how the leaders respond to it. Plus you have that mini gap remaining on the Qs. I have no idea how hard they will hit them but I will be keying in tomorrow for breakdown and support or breakdown & more breakdown.
Aug 21, 2020 4 tweets 1 min read
Something to watch for on the weekly charts within TMLs is this 2 weeks down 1 or 2 weeks up action. That sort of action can be indicative of topping or a faulty base in progress.

Good recoveries in these yes but I missed that detail last night in my review. The saving grace possibly is that these haven't met the usual timeframes of how long it takes for TMLs to top out. (usually 18-22 months). Sometimes, a 2nd or 3rd stage base is built from here.
Aug 20, 2020 9 tweets 2 min read
Market Thoughts: We’ve had an unbelievable run since the FTD but I can’t ever ignore or get complacent with how well things have been. This is a pretty classic lockout rally IMO. Constant shake outs to the 21ema on the has frustrated many. (1/...) But when I see the indices not shaking much anymore, it tells me there might be a big boy pullback coming. Over the years I’ve noticed this phenomena. That very tight tight action on the daily. (2/...)
Aug 16, 2020 4 tweets 1 min read
@thelagunapadre and I have been fishing the inshore coast of Texas for years together. Since we were just kids (after we reconciled in 89’ when he stole my Easter candy of course). We would catch so much fish and our Dads would have big fish fries. (1) It’s the best thing in the world having your best bud next to you doing the thing you love. But the one rule we had was when we found the fish, we never left that spot to find a better spot. (2)
Aug 5, 2020 4 tweets 1 min read
Just as an FYI to the new followers, if I say “Long XYZ” name, it means I am buying it within 30-60 seconds or have bought it within 30-60 seconds of that tweet. I don’t wait for a positive earnings gap up and say “Been Long XYZ”.

So silly when I see that. And if I say “Long XYZ” stock on an earnings gap up, it means I am really buying it in that moment. Lol!

I try to do my trades real time for everyone. Buys and sales. Winners and LOSERS. You get it all. You see the wins and MISTAKES. Full transparency.
Jul 30, 2020 5 tweets 2 min read
. See those two 15 minute tails? On thinner names, algos see those stops and will trigger them. Then, they’ll accumulate. So critical to make sure you have a plan when buying gaps. Institutions cause that too. Check out on a daily (June 16th). ImageImage When a liquid name is gapping up, it’s more difficult for institutions and algos to shake out on the gap day. Here’s a 15 minute of . To get the price to come in, they have to sell blocks of shares. Hence, the intraday pullbacks are more orderly.