Is Gen AI leading to job loss?

I analyzed US labor market data (CPS) from the post-ChatGPT era (Q4 2022 - Q1 2025) to see what's actually happening to employment in AI-exposed jobs. Spoiler: it's nuanced. 🧵 Occupations most exposed to AI (from Eloundou 2024) have NOT seen an aggregate decline in employment or earnings growth compared to the least exposed jobs.

But there are interesting trends when we dive into specific jobs...

Excited to share my #JMP! #EconTwitter

How has composition of college grads changed over time? What are implications for the college wage gap?

I estimate the college wage gap would have grown 4x faster from 2002-2019 if composition held fixed!

drive.google.com/file/d/1UeQ7SH… Background: college wage gap >60% in 2019 even as share of workers w/ a college degree grew to over 40%

Implies growing relative demand for college workers (Katz-Murphy)

But changes in college share also affect composition of college grads!

@arpitrage tinyurl.com/m95sa64p

My paper "The Drivers of Social Preferences: Evidence from a Nationwide Tipping Field Experiment," with @UriGneezy, John List, and Ian Muir is now out as an NBER working paper. We analyze over 40 million tipping outcomes on the Uber app in 2017. THREAD

nber.org/papers/w26380 First facts:

16% of UberX trips are tipped

60% of riders who took at least 10 trips never tipped

Conditional on tipping, people tip a little more than $3 on average (about 26% of the fare), so the average tip, including cases where the rider did not tip, is about $0.50