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CEA Member for President Biden. Former economic adviser to VP Biden. Views are my own. White House acct: @econjared46.
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Nov 29, 2020 5 tweets 2 min read
I found this @nytimes editorial on the importance of a wage-growth agenda to be highly resonant and centering. As @LarryMishel taught us all long ago, the distribution of power's got to be in the model.
nytimes.com/2020/11/28/opi… One important friendly amendment: persistent full employment raises real pay through the worker-power channel. In recent decades, I think of the 1990s and 2010s the cycles that got to and stayed at full emp for a good bit.
Nov 2, 2020 7 tweets 3 min read
When I’m driven to distraction about the fate of democracy, I take refuge in…econ analysis! A few observations based on new data: I’ve argued that “excess savings”—people able to save more than usual—has helped offset the still very weak job market. Here’s a new fig from Goldman researchers showing the magnitude as this effect. It’s excess savings as a share of consumer spending, but it’s aggregate and we know low-inc HHs typically have zero/negative savings. However…
Oct 26, 2020 7 tweets 3 min read
A few weeks ago, @DeanBaker13 & I wrote of Trump’s lost trade war. Two new pieces out today provide more evidence of the what's and why’s here. The WSJ’s figure on factory employment shows the basic fact.
washingtonpost.com/outlook/2020/1…
wsj.com/articles/china…
washingtonpost.com/business/2020/… These articles underscore the fact that the trade deficit worsened under Trump, the factory sector was in recession **before** the pandemic, and all his alleged deals and photo ops at factories like Carrier in Indiana were reality TV, not reality.
Sep 16, 2020 4 tweets 2 min read
IMO it's essential not to let this finding from yesterday's Census release on health coverage fade into the news fog: ***Actions of the Trump admin to undermine the ACA have reversed the trend toward more coverage.***
cbpp.org/research/healt… Image As @CenterOnBudget points out, this TTR (terrible trend reversal) continued last year even amid low unemp and job gains. After 6 yrs of decline, unins rate reversed in 2017 adding 2.3 million to the ranks of the uninsured. cbpp.org/sites/default/… Image
Sep 15, 2020 8 tweets 3 min read
Listening to the Census Bureau go through 2019 poverty, inc, and hth ins data. Unusually, 1 of the most important figures this yr is the one below: unprecedented decline in response rate due to Covid. Key Census statement about this is... Image "Of particular interest for the estimates in this report are the differences in median income and educational attainment, indicating that respondents in 2020 had relatively higher income and were more educated than nonrespondents." This, of course, leads to an upward bias...
Sep 11, 2020 4 tweets 2 min read
Useful analysis @RichardRubinDC and @kpomerleau of tax impact on 5 household types. But, as Rich notes in an inspired caveat, such analysis is inherently partial....
wsj.com/articles/how-b… "a view of the Biden tax plan isn’t complete w/out looking at the other side of the ledger. It would finance programs designed to improve health care, education & infrastructure, as well as fight climate change, & many of those programs would have direct impacts on households."
Sep 7, 2020 5 tweets 3 min read
Good AM, peeps!
I've got a 4 part Labor Day message.
1) "At 65%, Approval of Labor Unions in U.S. Remains High"
news.gallup.com/poll/318980/ap…
Yet, membership is low. Image 2) Why is that? Simple: because policy has tilted hard against union formation & collective bargaining. Thankfully, @EconomicPolicy has the 12-point plan to counteract this suppression, eg PRO Act, NLRA reform, more. I am SURE these ideas would help.
epi.org/publication/wh…
Sep 4, 2020 4 tweets 2 min read
Payrolls up 1.4 mil last month, signalling a downshift in the pace of job gains. Pvt sector (more relevant this month due to ~240K temporary Census hires) up 1 mil, abt 1/3 pace of growth in May/June; clearly related to the absence of national leadership on virus control. Image The table below provides the big picture. Payrolls cratered by over 20 mil during the shutdown and are not yet halfway back. At August rate of pvt sector gains, it would take over 10 months to get back to pre-pandemic peak. That's a low bar, tho, due to growth of working-age pop. Image
Aug 26, 2020 7 tweets 3 min read
The econ fiction the R's are telling is based on these falsehoods:
--Trump inherited an awful economy and fixed it;
--He didn't bungle the virus (what virus??) so pay no attention to what's actually happening in the economy, outside of the stock market, of course. In fact, the vast majority of pre-pandemic trends occurred under Obama-Biden, as this first figure shows. They inherited a recession & turned it around. Trump inherited a recovery &, unable to manage the virus, snuffed it out. Image
Aug 24, 2020 6 tweets 3 min read
Monday update, an irregular feature of stuff worthy of your attention this week. This edition: fiscal fail & get ready for an econ BS storm.
First, early evidence of fading fiscal support in an economy nowhere close to ready to pick up the slack.
washingtonpost.com/business/2020/… Image Exhibit A here is the extent to which expired UI benefits have been boosting spending for jobless persons. As the figure shows, such spending is "poised to decline." That's bad micro (households) and bad macro (overall growth). Image
Aug 10, 2020 8 tweets 2 min read
Just fyi, here's my take on Trump's exec actions. Summarizing a lot of what's out there plus an overview take on the politics. Bottom line, they run the gamut from toothless, inadequate, unimplementable, and one has the long run potential to defund Social Security. First, some reports say Trump extends the expired eviction moratorium. NOT SO. This one's a nothing burger that just directs federal agencies to try to find some $ w/in stretched budgets & figure out some ways to help people avoid evictions.
cbpp.org/blog/trump-exe…
Aug 1, 2020 5 tweets 2 min read
Thanks, Sam--you've got an excellent memory. @HBoushey & I debated Rs on this the other day with much support from @Brendan_Duke. The Rs had 3 objections, as I recall: --Congress should have discretion
--This would increase mandatory spending
--Endogeneity problem: it would keep unemp high
Let us examine these objections.
Jul 30, 2020 7 tweets 2 min read
GDP fell 32.9% last quarter (Q2: Apr, May, June) at an annual rate, the biggest decline on record with data back to the 1940s. That's an awful number, but it's also a uniquely old number. This is a tricky report--read on, if you dare... Image "Annual" means -33% would be GDPs pace of decline for a year if this same pace persisted for 4 quarters. But we know that didn't happen. The jobs data tell us that the Q2 damage was done in April due to the shutdown. As commerce returned, May/June were stronger.
Jul 29, 2020 4 tweets 1 min read
You know the old investor quip: it's only when the tide goes that you see who's swimming naked. That's what's the crisis is exposing re Rs governing. We're deep in a health/econ crisis and Mitch Mc prob doesn't even have the R votes to pass his highly insufficient bill... There's no muscle memory at all among Rs for actually dealing w market failures, shocks, etc. It's all tax cuts for donor base, dereg biz, scorched-earth opposition, and blame "the other." That **appears** to be functional at low unemp, though it really isn't.
Jul 21, 2020 4 tweets 1 min read
Another day, another reminder of the dire need for competent governance. Let us count the ways.

1) Trump admin obsessed with all the wrong stuff for next relief package: no state/local, payroll tax cut a dangerous beast (won't help unemp, don't trust R's to replenish... SocSec, Mcare coffers), oppose virus control $ (incredible).
2) Trump Fed appointee Judy Shelton likely voted out of committee today. Disingenuous gold bug who disparages Fed independence. Still has to get through Senate but if she does...
Jul 20, 2020 5 tweets 3 min read
Let’s take a quick Monday AM look at some facts and figs around virus control, lack thereof, and the economic response required given lack thereof, US relative to Germany. Contrary to Trump, it ISN’T what it is. Gov’t’s have agency to do their jobs.
washingtonpost.com/politics/trump… Image Germany is doing a particularly good job on both virus control and the economic response. EG, their “work-sharing” system which keeps people on the job, compensating them for diminished hours and the magnitude of their fiscal response: 55% of their GDP (we’re at ~15%). ImageImage
Jul 13, 2020 4 tweets 2 min read
I'm VERY unhappy & spooked by fact that Senate is not in session and, as @JStein_WaPo points out, $600 UI plus-up expires in 12 days. This adds tremendous uncertainty at a time when economically vulnerable people are already swamped with that problem.
What's needed is fiscal forward guidance--clear, reliable assurances that Congress will continue to deliver relief until it isn't needed. Of course, politics block that, which is why economists like triggers that automatically turn the fiscal spigot on and off.
Jun 26, 2020 4 tweets 1 min read
This AMs income report, along with some other reporting, is YELLING for more fiscal relief and for not letting UI plus-up payments expire at end of July.
How can income fall 5% in 1 month but spending climb 8%? People digging into savings?? NOPE--the report has the saving rate... Image ...at a huge 23%. It's the stimulus payments. Just the UI plus up itself is $700bn, annualized!! That's 4 freakin' % of income. With unemp stuck at recessionary levels, and the reopening stumbling due to the absence of any virus control, to take that much $...
Jun 24, 2020 5 tweets 2 min read
There is an EXTREMELY important story--in terms of politics, policy, and pandemic--that risks getting lost amid the chaos. THE TRUMP ADMIN IS FIGHTING TO REPEAL OBAMACARE. And as usual, follow the $$$.
cbpp.org/research/healt… Image As my @CenterOnBudget colleagues point out, pre-pandemic, no ACA means 20 mil would lose coverage. But if SCOTUS strikes the law next year, millions more will lack coverage due to economic downturn and unique US system of coverage through work.
washingtonpost.com/outlook/2020/0…
Jun 18, 2020 4 tweets 1 min read
UI claims up 1.51mil last wk, down from 1.57mil week before. But I think the continuing claims recent trend is suggestive of an important story. Like the US virus caseload, it may be leveling off at a very high level (20.5mil) last wk... Image This is indicative of what I suspect we'll see with most important econ variables. Some improvement, even a big bounce (eg, may jobs, retail sales) followed by a flattening at recessionary levels. The political/economy/macro here is simple:
Jun 9, 2020 4 tweets 2 min read
Forgive me for venting, but I'm a bit obsessed with this terrible idea that a surprise pop in jobs in May (from 1 noisy jobs report) somehow undermines the case for extending the $600 weekly unemp ins. plus up. First, check out this figure from @crampell Do not conflate "we're at the bottom" with "ample jobs for all seekers!" Labor demand still far more slack than at the worst of last downturn. That's precisely why we need UI. And UIs usual replacement rates (~45% of past pay) are insufficient. Ergo, the plus up.