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Jared Bernstein Profile picture
Jared Bernstein
@econjared46
Chair, White House Council of Economic Advisers. Like econ, love music.
2 subscribers
May 26 • 11 tweets • 3 min read
Though your points are interesting and resonant, I can't join you here, @felixsalmon: "Prices are high, therefore inflation is high." I think it's very important to distinguish between inflation and the price level. axios.com/2024/05/26/inf… I can't speak to the extent people differentiate between disinflation (slower inflation) and deflation (price declines). But here's why I think it's important for analysts and journalists to do so.
Start with the recent @POTUS statement below (re Apr CPI)
whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/…
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Feb 4 • 5 tweets • 2 min read
Having recovered from the excitement of the expectation-busting jobs day on Friday, a few follow-up thoughts.
At @WhiteHouseCEA we're all about the trends. Separate wheat from chaff, signal from noise. With that in mind, here are some important ongoing trends. The 3-month rolling avg of job gains shows a) gradual cooling from unsustainably fast job growth to still-very-solid pace and b) a potential uptick over past 2 months (less so in 6-mn mov avg, so we'll see how this evolves).
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Jan 19 • 7 tweets • 2 min read
Measures of consumer attitudes both reflect how folks are feeling & can be leading indicators the economy. Today’s *preliminary* Univ of Michigan Consumer Sentiment release, showing a 13% rise in January following a 14% rise in December, is a positive sign on both fronts. /1 Image Two important caveats up front. First, the January UMich data are preliminary; the final data may differ. Second, UMich is a small sample survey of 600 respondents (even smaller for prelim release), which can make it noisy month-to-month. /2
Jan 16 • 5 tweets • 3 min read
Here are a few dis- and de-flation stories worthy of your attention. They emphasize a) the role of supply expansions in disinflation (vs. demand destruction) and b) direct lowering of prescription drug costs. Both are instructive re the varied paths to dis/deflate. Here's @greg_ip on supply improvements in air travel, oil, rental housing, chips. Jan Hatzius, ahead of the pack on this, makes the key point below.
wsj.com/business/airli…
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Dec 12, 2023 • 6 tweets • 2 min read
See @WhiteHouseCEA CPI thread—continued easing of price pressures & today's blog shows contributions to the 6 percentage point decline in headline inflation from its peak last June. Let me add few points, ESP about real wage gains!

Image But first, let’s talk housing and the CPI. The figure shows that CEA’s model continues to track the bumpy decline in housing inflation, so with the caveat that predictions are hard, esp about the future, further easing is likely baked in. Image
Nov 30, 2023 • 8 tweets • 2 min read
Check out this new CEA blog showing the extent to which supply-chain snarling and unsnarling drove first inflation and then disinflation.
whitehouse.gov/cea/written-ma… As you see in this table, there’s been ample disinflation in PCE (out today thru Oct) and CPI. Meanwhile, the job market has stayed tight “as the skin of a gooseberry.” (Thanks, AI…this was the best family version of the analogy). Image
Sep 3, 2023 • 8 tweets • 3 min read
Always a pleasure to mix it up with @shannonbream on @FoxNewsSunday. Wanted to follow up with a few more details on some of the facts/points that came up is this wide-ranging chat!
First, here’s what I meant re “Mike Pence: June 2022 wants its talking point back!” Inflation is SO not at a 40-yr high. In fact, as figure shows it’s down 2/3’s since then. Now, our work isn’t done, and we’re doing a lot more to help, but VERY IMPORTANT not to mislead on this. Image
Jun 22, 2023 • 10 tweets • 3 min read
The U.S. economy, as usual, is in the midst of tailwinds—strong job market, headline inflation coming down, solid consumer spending—and headwinds. What it is very likely NOT in the midst of, based on data—not vibes, not animal entrails, but data—is a recession. /1 To be clear, as usual here at CEA, we’re talking about the here and now. Forecasts are especially challenging these days, and what follows is about time t, not t + n. But “recession,” as determined by the NBER, means something kinda specific. /2
Oct 21, 2022 • 7 tweets • 3 min read
Supply chains are unsnarling and this is taking some pressure off of inflation. Here are some pics of these dynamics. First, here's the NY Fed's supply chain pressure index. It's down 75% off of its peak, quickly falling back to pre-pandemic levels. Read about it here, but it's a composite indicator of freight costs, delivery delays, order backlogs, etc.
newyorkfed.org/research/polic…
Jul 13, 2022 • 7 tweets • 2 min read
Ok, taking a break from the monthly inflation picture (captured usefully here by @BrianDeeseNEC) to talk a bit about where we are and how we got here. Trees important, but so is forest.
The current, unacceptably high inflation is borne of three main forces--some fading, others growing--that are intimately connected: strong demand, constrained supply, Putin's invasion. The pandemic was & is very much behind the first two forces.
Jun 26, 2022 • 4 tweets • 2 min read
This piece by @Phil_Mattingly provides a detailed & balanced take on the work of the Biden econ team as we work to implement @POTUS's agenda amidst repeated challenges. The focus on the policy distance...
cnn.com/2022/06/26/pol… ...between the problems and solutions is important, by which I mean, broadly speaking, it's easier for the fiscal authorities to address near-term demand shocks than supply shocks. @jasonfurman is correct in the quote below. That said... Image
Jun 6, 2022 • 5 tweets • 3 min read
Always glad to chat w my @SquawkCNBC peeps, but wanted to make sure @JoeSquawk had the fiscal facts re gov't's growth/inflation impulse right now. It's a strong negative.
First, here's Hutching fiscal impact; big negatives right now:
brookings.edu/interactives/h… 2nd, see this thread on @potus point that deficit reduction, which is behind the current negative fiscal impulse, is a key plank in our efforts to ease price pressures.
Jun 4, 2022 • 6 tweets • 3 min read
Too swamped to tweet on jobs day yesterday; hoping everyone saw @WhiteHouseCEA's analysis. Allow me to add a few nuances and cite some interesting coverage.
For many close labor market watchers, one of the most important variables right now is labor force participation as it's a good way to close the gap between labor supply and demand. In fact, this expansion continues to outpace the past 5! Image
May 18, 2022 • 6 tweets • 3 min read
As you may have heard, deficit reduction so far this fiscal year has come in at more than $1.5 trillion…with a 't'. That’s an historical record and that’s just through April, the 7th month of the fiscal year. Image This is important for at least 2 reasons. First, @POTUS has talked about the importance of fiscal consolidation as the economy recovers; 2nd, it signals that fiscal impulse is flipping from a + tailwind to a - drag, which helps counteract inflation:
whitehouse.gov/cea/written-ma…
May 16, 2022 • 5 tweets • 2 min read
Q: Suppose you wanted to boost opportunities for low and moderate-income families, promote racial equity, dampen inflationary pressures, and help to correct a persistent market failure. What's an economic adviser to do!?
A: whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/… I've been a 'houser' (housing policy wonk) for decades, and I can't recall a more comprehensive plan to tackle the decade-long shortfall in housing supply, particularly for bottom half of the market. Image
May 3, 2022 • 4 tweets • 2 min read
There is an empirically rigorous econ lit on the economic consequences of limiting or overturning Roe, reviewed in the amicus brief to the recent Dobbs case: "...ample evidence indicates that Roe is causally connected to women’s advancements in social and economic life." The brief is worth a close read today, as it documents research that uses some of the most rigorous methods for establishing causality. Significant negative impacts occur in areas of financial well-being, health, education, and more.
reproductiverights.org/wp-content/upl…
Mar 28, 2022 • 4 tweets • 2 min read
Today we answer the question: what is the President’s budget? For @POTUS, it’s a statement of our values, priorities, and policy goals on behalf of the American people. Today’s release shows these to be fiscal responsibility, safety, security, & inclusive, sustainable growth. The figure below shows how uniquely quickly the deficit/GDP is projected to fall this year—on track for -$1.3t, largest ever 1-yr decline; clearly related to economic impact of the ARP, which pulled recovery forward & led to tightest labor market in generations. Image
Jan 27, 2022 • 5 tweets • 2 min read
Check out our @WhiteHouseCEA thread on today's GDP report. A touch in the weeds, sure, but that's what we do! Allow me to elaborate this inventories point, as it potentially (important caveat) has outsized importance going forward. As a change in a change, inventories can be the noisiest part of GDP growth, and we're very careful to recognize that one quarter does not a new trend make. But as our tweet says, it is suggestive of a positive development re supply chains.
Jan 23, 2022 • 8 tweets • 3 min read
New NYT piece out today comparing inflation trends across countries: A key observation is that we in the US got somewhat more heat, but also more growth, jobs resulting in a significantly faster recovery.
nytimes.com/2022/01/22/bus… Also, inflation up strongly in most countries suggests common pressure: COVID/supply chain snarls.
Nov 4, 2021 • 4 tweets • 2 min read
Great report out today from Moody’s, showing that @POTUS’s BBB proposal for care, climate, education, and more is more-than-fully paid for & boosts GDP, jobs, and the labor force.
moodysanalytics.com/-/media/articl… The report shows how pro-growth policies, like child/elder care boost labor supply, GDP, & jobs. Adding impact of infrastructure bill, Moody's predicts more than 1.5 million more jobs on average, per year across the decade.
Sep 17, 2021 • 11 tweets • 3 min read
In recent conversations, I’ve been noodling on different ways to understand the costs and benefits of the $3.5 trillion reconciliation plan. In important ways, this topline number provides the least informative perspective. First, that’s a gross number. It ignores the impact of “payfors” on the net cost. Over the next decade, that net cost is ZERO (ftr, the gross cost is ~1% of GDP). And those are highly progressive payfors that hit no one under $400K!