Covid-19 came as an emergency.

It’s not gone, but has turned into a catalyst for lasting economic change trib.al/FqYZBGm Now in its third year, the pandemic has dramatically reshuffled the job market with Americans working on the go as companies scramble to hire while also investing in automation and e-commerce to remain competitive trib.al/FqYZBGm

Justin Trudeau’s finance minister unveils a more prudent budget than expected, keeping new spending in check and using a revenue windfall to help narrow deficits to near zero within five years trib.al/b2fTKi1 Canada plans to increase sales of short-term debt this year, even as its finances improve from a revenue windfall bloomberg.com/news/articles/…

Even as delta risks loom, early signs from the 3rd quarter show growth accelerating and inflation peaking after its recent jump, a reassuring sign for policy makers and investors worried about the risks of faltering demand and surging prices (THREAD)
bloomberg.com/graphics/globa… Bloomberg Economics nowcasts bring together hundreds of data points to provide a high frequency read on the pace of growth. Beneath the robust headline global number, the country nowcasts reveal economies at very different stages of recovery:
bloomberg.com/graphics/globa…

THREAD: 1)🌊From Seoul to Sydney and Beijing to Bangkok, Asian economies are being upended as the delta variant surges. Here are the indicators economists are watching to gauge how the latest wave is playing out, @endacurran and @hongjinshan report

More: trib.al/XOXnNYd 2)⛔Australia’s two largest cities are in lockdown while China is imposing curbs in the middle of the summer break. Google's mobility data show the slowdown in work and retail activity due to virus restrictions in major economies such as Japan and India. trib.al/XOXnNYd

U.S. consumer prices probably rose in July at the slowest pace in 5 months, marking a deceleration that stops short of full relief from cost increases weighing on sentiment and driving political debate (THREAD) bloomberg.com/news/articles/… The monthly CPI index is seen climbing 0.5%, according to the median projection in a Bloomberg survey ahead of data this week. Stripping out volatile food & energy components, the core measure of prices is forecast to rise 0.4% after a 0.9% advance in June bloomberg.com/news/articles/…

Here are the key highlights from Justin Trudeau’s pre-election budget trib.al/xaU520n Justin Trudeau’s government sets the table for a possible election with a budget that promises big spending on new programs like childcare bloomberg.com/news/articles/…

Europe’s late but accelerating vaccination push is allowing ECB officials to begin pondering an economic future free of the curse of the coronavirus (THREAD) bloomberg.com/news/articles/… While ECB policy makers will reiterate existing stimulus settings with a horizon of March 2022, the step-up in immunizations has emboldened some of them to start a public discussion on what might happen when the pandemic no longer menaces the region bloomberg.com/news/articles/…

The UK economy is building momentum – here are first indicators showing how last week’s unlocking is playing out (THREAD via @lucy_meakin & @ZSchneeweiss ) bloomberg.com/news/articles/… 1⃣ The number of online job advertisements in the UK returned to levels seen before the pandemic for the first time bloomberg.com/news/articles/…

Japan’s economy could emerge from a damaging state of emergency this quarter on a less-shaky footing if growth at the end of last year was as strong as economists estimate bloomberg.com/news/articles/… The latest consensus is for an annualized expansion of 10.1% in 4Q/2020, more than twice the size forecast in early December, buoyed by exports and a smaller-than-expected hit to consumer spending. Official Japan GDP figures are due Monday bloomberg.com/news/articles/…

The EU’s lost opportunity to shake off the coronavirus with swift vaccinations is likely to overshadow economic forecasts this week that may show a frustratingly slow recovery in 2021 (THREAD) bloomberg.com/news/articles/… The European Commission has the uncomfortable task of revealing an outlook that will implicitly highlight the impact of the EU’s delayed procurement of inoculations. Persisting lockdowns are probably costing the economy ~€12 billion/week in missing output bloomberg.com/news/articles/…

BREAKING: The U.S. added 49,000 jobs in January. The unemployment rate fell to 6.3% from 6.7% trib.al/VBRQ0iU MORE:

🔻 The participation rate decreased to 61.4%, impacting the unemployment rate

⬆️ Average hourly earnings rose 0.2% month over month. Estimate was for 0.3%

🔻 Prior two reports revised down by 159,000

The latest ➡️ bit.ly/3oRcoSy

Who really won the Cold War? Maybe China.

Fast forwarding to 2020, China has emerged as a major global power and its single-party rule and state-dominated economy the cause of alarm in many nations bloom.bg/38A13BA By 2035, Bloomberg Economics forecasts China will have overtaken the U.S. to become the world’s biggest economy and perhaps also its most powerful political actor bloom.bg/38A13BA

China is about to show the world that its economy is pulling further out of the chasm created by the coronavirus, setting it apart from other nations struggling to avoid renewed lockdowns (THREAD) trib.al/UcpkJM8 Chinese GDP for the 3rd quarter is forecast to come in at a 5.5% expansion from a year earlier, recovering all of the lost ground from the historic contraction in the first three months of the year bloomberg.com/news/articles/…

The guardians of the global economy will gather this week under the cloud of the worst recession since the Great Depression, and a recovery dependent on scientists finding a coronavirus vaccine (THREAD) trib.al/OoM7IoB The IMF and World Bank will hold their annual meetings, with both calling on the G-20 to extend a freeze in debt payments from the world’s poorest nations that’s set to expire at year end trib.al/OoM7IoB

ECB policy makers discussing this week how to set monetary policy for their disease-stricken economy will do so very much in the shadow of their U.S. counterparts trib.al/bFj6xjt (THREAD) Officials led by Christine Lagarde are being forced to confront not only the euro’s strengthening to a 2-year high, but also whether a driving force behind that move – a shift in strategy by the Fed to periodically tolerate faster inflation – is one they need to follow too

Fed Chairman Jerome Powell and fellow central bankers from the U.S. and abroad will still meet this week for the annual Jackson Hole conference, albeit from their screens at home rather than in the shadow of Wyoming’s Teton mountains (THREAD) trib.al/nY8iqNE There could still be news. On Thursday, Powell will speak to the event about the Fed’s long-awaited monetary policy framework review, which has focused on a new inflation strategy trib.al/nY8iqNE

It’s another big week for the world economy: Data on Thursday is set to show that U.S. employers probably kept hiring millions in June trib.al/HXcvPQp Economists project the Labor Department will report a 3 million increase in payrolls after a surprising 2.5 million gain a month earlier. The back-to-back gains, nonetheless, pale in comparison to the number of jobs lost before that – about 22 million in March and April combined

The UK government is paying the wages for about 10 million jobs – that’s limiting the damage to the labor market, though the signs are ominous. We took a closer look at the data trib.al/zKv3Zpb (THREAD) Benefit claims made by unemployed and underemployed people in the UK rose more last month than at any time on record, with the pain spread throughout the country trib.al/zKv3Zpb

THREAD: The euro-area economy’s expansion has come to a dramatic halt, pummeled by a pandemic that’s killed thousands and destroyed businesses and livelihoods trib.al/P6idipi First-quarter GDP data due Thursday will show a 3.7% contraction, the first since 2013. The current quarter is likely to be even worse, with a disastrous deterioration in economic prospects likely to produce the deepest recession on record trib.al/P6idipi

Global central banks remain under pressure to do more to support their economies through the coronavirus recession even after driving interest rates to record lows and pledging to spend trillions of dollars on asset purchases trib.al/fHHQ0gq The Fed, Bank of Japan and European Central Bank, which together cover half of global output, will all convene meetings of policy makers this week after the pandemic-driven freezing of economies and turmoil in financial markets propelled them into action trib.al/fHHQ0gq

The world economy will get a real-time check-up this week, as surveys from Asia to Europe and the Americas reveal the current state of manufacturing and services industries trib.al/0pRJKcO A slew of nations will release flash PMI reports for April on Thursday, giving more insight into the economic cost of either lockdowns imposed to contain the virus, or the success of tentative measures to ease restrictions trib.al/0pRJKcO