Time has come for the serious confrontation with #ISIS "soldiers of the Caliphate" in Quneitra (Jaish Khaled bin al Waleed) bordering the occupied Golan heights as the Syrian Army, Hezbollah & allies reached the territory occupied by the group as part of south #Syria liberation.
#Damascus soldiers & allies are aware of the necessity of this inevitable battle that is supposed to begin as soon as the preparation of attack from different fronts is completed. This can be achieved when more territories under Nusra and FSA are cleared.
The Syrian Army agreed with the Russian suggesting to ship all Syrians refusing to reconcile with the government to #Idlib: green busses (or whatever colour it is going to be) are prepared to go to #Daraa#Syria.
Over 100 busses are reaching #Daraa to carry over 1500 Jabhat al-Nusra aka Hayat Tahrir al-Sham and their families who rather stay under Turkish control the north of #Syria.
The #Damascus-Amman road is clear and safe now and Naseeb crossing is expected to reopen soon.
Syrian Army is clearing up east of #Daraa where the Russian Military police is tasking position.
The enormous quantity of weapons recovered by the Syrian army is filling up the army's warehouses, thanks to Arab and the west generous donations to Jihadists
#Israel confirmed what I (exclusively) wrote in my article that it was its jets responsible for hitting #Iraq sec forces (Hashd al-Shaabi) command and control centre with the task to fight #ISIS and prevents the terrorist group from crossing into #Iraq
Actually what #Israel (and the #US) is not revealing is the fact that US airport in al-Hasaka was used for the hit, in coordination with the US forces deployed in #Syria and #Iraq, informed about the presence of Israeli jets and their bank of objective+
Russia wants to avoid further clashes between #Israel & #Iran in Syria and will try to do so to the benefit of the central government In #Damascus.
#Russia understands that #Iran was in #Syria 1st (2013 heavily) to help #Damascus to fight #ISIS, #AQ and their allies supported (finance, weapons, intel) by Arab, Israel and western countries to stop "regime change".
Russia came to join the already ongoing effort in 2015.
Unlike what many "pop-corn analysts", "Twitter or divan journalists/analysts" might say, #Assad - although very grateful for Moscow's intervention not only in Syria but also at the UN and various platforms - can and did disagree with #Russia in few battles north and south.
Let me share with you few insights of what I saw in #Daraa, the battle of south #Syria:
To-date, there are important points to highlight in this battle 1/+
. #Damascus and its allies decided to start the battle off south #Syria with or without #Russia at start. The decision has been made and #Moscow accepted to engage along the Syria central government. This is not the first time this happen. 2/+
. No casualties among #Syria allies, participating in the battle in the south so far, despite their presence on multiple fronts.
. Assad offered no guarantee to #Israel or #US but is expected to keep Syrian Army forces once the south is liberated 3/+
Meetings held between #Russia and militants representative in #Daraa today where #Damascus central government's conditions were presented to avoid further military operation. Most anti-gov forces are happy to surrender. More (good) news in the next 24-48 hours.#Syria.
Soon "Twitter journalists", "Divan analysts" and other similar will be jobless since only two forces remain occupying Syrian territories in the north, mushroomed in the 7 years of war: #USA and #Turkey.
Those in south #Syria who have collaborated with #Israel, will find the doors closed and won't be adopted by Tel Aviv, similar to the South Lebanese Army in the year 2000 (Israel withdraw from Lebanon). No one wants losers. Proxies become a heavy burden.
#Israel should be happy to have the Syrian Army back on the borders in Assuweida-Daraa-Quneitra as it was the case for thirty odd years without any significant incident,rather than protecting uncontrollable salafi-Wahhabi radicals who can wake up from one day two another & attack
The war in Syria is almost over: #ISIS will continue attacking (with no strategic purposes like in #Iraq), #Idlib and al-Hasaka are considered under occupation forces. Now the Syrian government can call for general elections any time in liberated #Syria
The battle of south Syria will be divide in two parts: the first part (Suweida/east Daraa) will continue without obstacles from players involved (#USA and #Israel).
The 2d part is still observing complications (the one including #ISIS - Jaish Khaled Bin al-Waleed) in #Quneitra.
The first part (Suweida/east Daraa) is aiming to open the #Damascus-#Amman road at Naseeb crossing. This will give a fresh air to the economy of both #Syria and #Jordan. The battle is expected to end in less than 2 months.
For the second part on the Israeli borders, #USA said it clearly is shall not pull out of al-Tanf today, tomorrow or in the near future.
The Israeli bombing last night close to #Damascus airport is due to the second part of the ops in south #Syria.
If the #USA is worried about south #Syria ops it means the establishment is afraid of #SAA's success. Obviously, #SAA took eastern Ghouta with 35K jihadists and the south today has with 20k-25k jihadists & FSA and the geography is much easier.
Actually, the #USA has nothing to do in the south of #Syria. the area is not part of US national security nor it affects #US citizens or interest. It is #Israel that is extremely worried about #SAA regaining demarcation line with #IDF.
#Israel is aware #SAA and its #NDF have gained enough experience and is afraid the long 30-40 years of "peace on the borders" is over: #Damascus next step after the war will be the #GolanHeights, an area rich of oil and exploited by #US companies.
Asking the Syrians gov not to retake Syrian territory and advertising for a "terrible civilian toll" is a deja vu. A ridiculous anti-Syria report by @crisisgroup.
De-confliction never included #ISIS and #AQ.
Watch all the "sensitive" analysts now turning in direction of southern #Syria (never #Yemen of course): whenever the Syrian Army wants to recover the control of territories under #ISIS#AQ or their Jihadists allies, the same old story starts picking up.
Yesterday late afternoon #Russia/n forces took 3 positions in Qusseyr and Juseh and established checkpoints. #Hezbollah, not informed of the Russian presence, came close to these forces and asked their immediate pull out+
Following the direct intervention of President Bashar al-Assad, the Russian force pulled out this morning and avoided any clash with #Hezbollah in the area.
hezbollah maantin and kept all positions. The #Russia/n move was not coordinated.+
#Syria launched 10s of missiles against 4 #Israel/I military objectives in the occupied #GolanHeight in response to continuous Israeli provocation of war (hitting Syrian & allies' targets in various locations).
#Iran will follow & is expected to deny any access to #IAEA inspectors to any nuclear facility in the country and re-open closed nuclear facilities.
Iran will never renounce on its missile development.
1+/ Many Syrians I spoke to on the ground told me:" We have tried the opposition, #AQ#ISIS. Because of these, we are so grateful to return under the ruling of a government no matter who is ruling. These have destroyed our country with no purpose but to return to 2011 situation".
2+/ Syrians on the ground, who were opposing #Assad:" Different rebels fought one another in the street, over taxes, money, food supply, humanitarian aids, imposing taxes on merchandise w/o offering security at least. We are at a point where #Assad looks almost as a saver to us".
3+/ #Syrian. on the ground told me:" Eight years of war for no purpose. Today the west wants to bomb us. We don't care anymore because we want either to die or to end this nightmare and go back to our previous life".
In few moments will share some information about the forthcoming war in #Syria.
1+/ The US/EU war on Syria is expected in the next 10 hours according to sources in #Syria close to decision makers.
All Syrian troops were ordered to empty their barracks and keep 5% presence only.
2+/ #USA and #EU may target - as expected - the Syrian Air Force (many dislocated and other spread but not flying), the central for command and control, all radars and known anti-air missiles, Ministry of Defence, Presidential Palace and other sensitive Syrian bases.
#Israel jets flew over Ghazeer (#Lebanon) at a very low altitude to avoid #Russia/n radars in an area where topography allows jets to hide. Inhabitants were terrified by the sound. Jets took altitude in the Bekaa for 3-4 minutes and launched its missiles+
#Russia imposed on #Israel to notify its Air movement over #Syria and the course of its jets if ever willing to enter the Syrian airspace. Israel believed Russia is informing Damascus to be prepared when knowledgeable about an Israeli violation.+
The first busses carrying hundreds of "Jaish al-Islam" and members of their families are leaving NOW #Duma. The beginning of clearing #Damascus. #Syria.
626 "Jaish al-Islam" militants/families have left #Ghouta towards #Aleppo - #Jarablus . The evacuation is slow because the Syrian Army wants to make sure the 100s of millions (JAL requested to take away $900 m but the request was rejected) r not taken away
Jaish al-Islam is expected to join the fight against #AQ & other Jihadists under #Turkey flag in the city and rural #Idlib where #Ankara is planning to eliminate those who don't obey its agenda. #Russia threatened #Idlib if #AQ remain in it, strong.
Instead of giving back the city of Afrin to the central government of #Damascus, #YPG took the decision on behalf of all inhabitants, #Kurdxs and Arabs, to pull out and allow #Turkey to occupy it: #YPG "greatest" strategy. No place for Kurds even in the mountains now.
#YPG militants were described for years as "best fighters" and "best military partners" but the war in #Afrin showed they are not best fighters and they are worse planners with no strategy.
In both #Iraq and #Syria, #Kurds political leadership pushed the Kurdish population future and dreams for at least another 100 year back (and I am positive here) as a result of their alliance with the #USA in both cases and countries.
With the continuous flow of hundreds of well trained and armed Syrian popular forces, the Turkish #OliveBranchOperation is expected to be halted in the coming week: #Damascus clear confrontational attitude towards #Ankara seems obvious +
#Turkey knows that #Damascus is not acting alone and that #Russia is not far from seeing the Central government regain control of the Kurdish #Afrin enclave when #Kurds accepted all the Syrian gov conditions +
In the coming weeks, #Russia and #Ankara will have to find a way out to save #Turkey's face and present a scenario where everybody is a winner, including the #Kurds who have managed to save the destruction of the enclave.+
#Russia is discussing/finalising with #Turkey the cease-fire in #Afrin to allow 4000 #SAA men to take control of the entire city, surrounding villages, establish 52 positions in the enclave and deploy forces on the borders with #Turkey.
Thos who believe the deployment of the Syrian army will only be on the 160 km along the borders with #Turkey are mistaken because that was the initial request of the Afrin administration from day one, rejected by the government of #Damascus.
With the #Afrin deal coming to a near end, the #Kurds is al-Hasaka may no longer be fit as "best #USA partners" in #Syria. However, the #USA occupation forces will find another partner to stay in the Levant, the most important presence for these forces +
Because #USA protects an #ISIS enclave in north-east #Syria, #ISIS becomes a necessary element to justify the #USA presence and to wave it in the face of #Iraq . US is pushing #NATO into #Iraq so the US won't look alone in Mesopotamia and the Levant.
As the #USA insists in occupying #Syria and in staying in #Iraq, their forceful presence will be a negative element in PM Haidar Abadi's electoral campaign. #Iran won't accept NATO's presence in #Iraq and #Syria (USA).
#Breakingnews: #Hezbollah Nasrallah said: "If the Lebanese authority decides the #Israeli oil platform should stop working, in few hours these will be neutralised" (by Hezbollah anti-ship missiles).
The reason why #Hezbollah launched his menace to #Israel is due to #USA Assistant Secretary, Bureau of Near Eastern Affairs, David Satterfield (visiting #Lebanon) who threatened the Lebanese authority about preventing #Lebanon from exploring their oil
#USA Assistant Secretary David Satterfield said in closed doors to the Lebanese authorities:"If you don't give up of 860 sqkm of your territorial water to #Israel we won't allow you to exploit your oil in block 9" #Hezbollah answered the #USA and #Israel today, through Nasrallah.
The battle of #Afrin#Efrin : #Turkey is in am impossible position to break through the Kurdish defenders in Afrin city and enclave. Its proxies, including Jihadists, are incapable of occupying and keeping significant position in the Syrian Kurdish enclave +
#Turkey is confronted with only two options:
a. Surround the enclave
b. Push its own forces (several thousands of Turkish Army)
Both options are not feasible +
a. Surrounding the Afrin enclave is not possible because the south of Afrin is open to the Syrian Army line, happy to provide assistance to the Kurds even if the their intentions to declare a Federation and have linked themselves to the US.