Father, Portfolio Manager (L/S yet better at macro), ex @GoldmanSachs Partner, Politically homeless. I remember what a dial-up modem sounds like… *D.Y.O.R*
Dec 10, 2021 • 15 tweets • 4 min read
People have simply resigned to the fatigue trying to figure out bond prices. The SPX isn’t the expensive asset, it’s TY that’s bonkers crazy.
Here’s some simple math that sets the dinner table for this debate:
(1/n)
In 1st Jan 2020 looking back at 2019 the $SPX delivered $152 ish in actual earnings. Today, ostensibly in 2021 it will deliver $206 ish (low estimate). That’s 36% more. SPX spot trades ~38% higher today. On a trailing basis there is no mult expansion. NONE.
Ok but wait…
(2/n)
Nov 14, 2021 • 19 tweets • 4 min read
So, I’m going to do a thread on the numero uno debate right now in markets — Inflation.
Why? Well, if you run money professionally like many among FinTwit I think you must fast forward to June’22 and imagine what the world looks like, and then draw a distribution around it.
👇🏼
Before I dive, many smarter people on this site can opine more rigorously on the subject. My approach though is constrained by the framing as a portfolio manager.
So…
Aug 1, 2020 • 8 tweets • 3 min read
To the bears (a thread) —
“feels like early Jan/Feb” bears :
Unknown-unknowns (Covid hitting Italy, 3GDam burst, etc) and not Known-unknowns (fiscal cliff, FED, blah blah). Unless you’re that special ‘Sven-like’ cat who celebrates -250bps as victory after being offside by 250%.
2/ To the “feels like ‘99” bears :
Where were bond yields in 99 again? This isn’t a voodoo ERP snark, but the reality of TINA. When Stan felt the tech froth in ‘99 he had the option of parking cash in T-bills at 5-6% ffs.
