$DIS
Getting awfully tight, hard to say if a hard bottom is in, but the look below and fail of the covid lows and recent snapback sure has been a bit convincing, tax-loss selling pressures another added factor into EOY, but good reaction off the recent lows so far, still think it prob gets back to 135 after being bombed out on the woke news After selling in the 120s from 80s, decided to take another look at $DIS again
eliantcapital.com/p/the-pain-tra…

Lots of comments about bears are dead lately, I think what people are forgetting is something broke in the system this year, regional banking crisis, and the fed was forced to do BTFP/inject liquidity in the markets which essentially created a fed put. And the markets bottomed… twitter.com/i/web/status/1… Druck nailed it with the comments, very similar thoughts

https://twitter.com/thecarter758/status/1667009788687810561

Is the shoulder visible now?

https://twitter.com/xutrix99/status/1632828310949355521

Recognizing a pattern playing out before it happens???? Wowowowowow

Thanks Goldman for the short opportunity

https://twitter.com/eliant_capital/status/1632779097225961473

In terms of market, SPX needs to break 4110 or they may drift it up

One of the lowest event vol days for Powell we’ve had in quite some time, not sure what to expect as his last speech he was a full on dove, so in my head, I figured economy outlook was looking bleak and or something broke, the hot NFP # following that presser completely negated That thesis hence #bigflip came to fruition as economy was strong and inflation is reaccelerating with demand so strong and a total repricing in the bond market happened. With CPI, PCE & PPI coming in hot, as well as the labor market remaining very tight as the data has shown

$SPX
Nearing the apex of this wedge, getting fairly tight Hey @ShortsellerST people seem to be criticizing the upper trend line , I do believe that it is 5 touch points and it’s clearly valid, seems to piss off the bulls as I draw a line that counters their bias 😹

So,

The monkeys as @agnostoxxx likes to call them have been short the dollar, long euro, long EM, short vol, long gold and silver, long soft landing, long inflation is transitory, long treasuries, and these trades have worked fantastic, new data today has stepped on those trades And this could be the start of a huge unwind in those position. The best example I give, CTAs were piled in tech shorts coming into January, the Nasdaq is up 12% YTD. Unwinding of these trades takes time but there is huge moves to be unwound if this is the start of the new regime

Circling back to this, today rinsed and cleaned out a ton of people imo. Felt like capitulation on the bears end. Not to say this can’t go higher, I’m still net short and actually finished green today, likely due to the big vol bid and I sold the rest of the remaining longs I had

https://twitter.com/eliant_capital/status/1611442688527572993

Which also helped offset. NFP will be interesting tmrw as energy and yields are saying economy to shit and market doesn’t believe it due to the major offsides in positioning. I also personally feel we saw capitulation in $DXY longs as well as other European currency bears

Last time I saw this was September 2020

https://twitter.com/eliant_capital/status/1621224739527090177

One thing which I don’t understand from some individuals thesis is how is event vol supposedly going to act as support if we dip if event vol is lowest it’s been in a long time? Sure, everyone in the world expects 25bps, I don’t think there is any argument there, but I feel like The squeeze action will be very reduced given event vol is low and nothing is expected to be “unexpected.” A surprise of some sort could shock the markets and if we break vol trigger and they get these market makers offsides on the short puts and they have to chase downside…

After speaking with @PharmD_KS just now, if Powell does come out Dovish, unlikely imho, but it seems that you’d be able to interpret that as increasingly more bearish then if he came out hawkish as something likely broke in the system causing Powell to change his tune to dove. There already is a clear new trend being established in commodities and the risk of inflation resurgence is becoming more of a concern by the day post China reopening and demand being strong. For Powell to completely change tune, again unlikely imo, something serious is happening

In 2023 I think:

- We get a credit event
- See 3350 in Q1
- Vol sellers get blown out and we see a Volmageddon
- Many of these unprofitable companies / zombie companies go bankrupt & or get bought
- Bitcoin sees <10k
- Stock pickers market in full effect - $DXY 110+
- $EURUSD Below parity
- $GBPUSD below 1.07
- Something major breaks and Fed changes tune
- Inflation story ain’t over

$ES
Top of this wedge pattern trying to breakout $YM

$MSTR

Red on the day, has gap around 119 area… no love today when shitcos are giga-bid

https://twitter.com/eliant_capital/status/1608173721944195073

Telling imo that it’s breaking down for what’s to come for crypto here soon, one of the last dominos propped up

So, Covid spiked huge in China, they had 250M cases within last 3 weeks. They happen to ease restrictions and open China up, and their people can travel freely. Are they spreading a new virus to the rest of the world 🧐

To change tune and narrative that quick… And is this all a distraction they are using so they can attack Taiwan and take it over??? Ok done being tinfoil hat. Shit don’t add up though.

Week Ahead $SPX

Huge breakdown last week after a false breakout post CPI. Powell’s tone along with Lagarde’s tone were very hawkish which added to pressure on equities. We are at a key pivot on chart, I think if $SPX breaks 3820 we see 3750. If we hold 3820 we may retrace back to 3900.

Why is $PSNY a unique mechanical setup as well as structure 🧵

https://twitter.com/eliant_capital/status/1560559262996332546

For starters, 94.7% of the float is controlled by Li Shufu. Nearly the entire float is tied up and I’m assuming there is no incentive to sell as he is probably raking it in with the 300% CTB that shorts are paying. This is one unique additive to the situation.

Goodmorning $SST $SST 14 pre…

$SST sitting at 12+ afterhours and it tapped 12.80 at peak. Impossible to know what happens tmrw given I assume market makers will do everything they can to make sure 12.5s don’t go itm. A volume surge would obviously F them if it pushed over 12.5. Would mean 4M shares need

https://twitter.com/eliant_capital/status/1560339863467089920

To be hedged on a stock who has 1.3M short with a 367% CTB and has an ADV of 260k. Interesting setup for tomorrow opex and September. Mentioned around $10 and it’s gone up 20% ish since. I haven’t sold as I’m expecting a bigger move given the illiquidity and mechanical setup.

$ATHN DD Thread , 12/28 Vote Date
"leading provider of AI-enabled concentrated solar energy"
~ Bill Gates Backed
~Current SP: 9.96 , WT: 1.45
~ DA w/ @heliogeninc
~ $2B EV / $165M pipe

1/20 What is @heliogeninc & their mission?

“Heliogen is a renewable energy technology company unlocking the power of sunlight to replace fossil fuels.”

2/20

Here’s some advice to my followers on $DMYQ. If you’re worried about a drop to $8 and have a position in commons, simply hedge your shares and buy $10 puts. If you have no position and think it drops , either sit on the sidelines or can try and play puts and if you succeed Use those proceeds to add and start your common position. I will personally be holding my position and won’t be buying any puts to hedge my position unless it’s clear that the market wants to go lower which I’m not fully convinced yet. When $IONQ despac’d , it was at at rough