1. EAs as a formal, justiciable prerequisite for a FONSI are purely a regulatory creation.
In non-NEPA decision-making, agencies make findings all the time. They get deferred to by courts. Let's do that with FONSIs.
Dec 16, 2022 • 6 tweets • 1 min read
One thing I have noticed is that humans are bad at predicting what kind of activities will be easy or hard for an AI to do.
For example, in Asimov's *I, Robot,* the first robots could do complex tasks like babysit a child, but they could not talk. Decades later, it turns out that synthesizing speech is easy, but caring for a child is still hard.
Dec 12, 2022 • 16 tweets • 3 min read
If you are evaluating a fusion program, a good question to ask is "does this concept use a steam turbine?"
Why? It comes down to the cost of steam.
Steam turbines cost about the same whether they are used with steam generated by coal, geothermal, fission, or D-T fusion.
If the turbine costs the same amount, then the most relevant next question is how much the steam costs.
Dec 7, 2022 • 7 tweets • 3 min read
Some charts from a recent talk I gave, enjoy!
Here is TFP growth since 1947. Your income would be ~2x as high today if this hadn’t stagnated.
Some people don’t believe in economic statistics, so let’s use physical statistics.
This is the Henry Adams curve popularized by J. Storrs Hall.
Oct 20, 2022 • 12 tweets • 4 min read
If you've ever wondered how NEPA works, this is your lucky day.
A new long post from yours truly explaining why NEPA is the way it is and how we got here.
If you read the NEPA statute, it doesn't seem like it would be that onerous.
May 11, 2022 • 11 tweets • 2 min read
I have posted some negative crypto stuff lately, so let me also now reiterate that I think some ideas in crypto are important and remain underrated. Some theses:
The major (as in, will drive most of the market cap valuation) winning use case for crypto is a decentralized, neutral global settlement layer. This entails attracting and working with existing financial institutions, not replacing them.
Nov 4, 2020 • 5 tweets • 1 min read
Trump now leading in the national betting market. 😱
Pennsylvania is now a tossup.
Nov 3, 2020 • 4 tweets • 1 min read
There’s probably enough data in Apple Health (especially for users that have an Apple Watch) to estimate biological age. Who is going to build that app?
VO2 max, step length, double support time, walking speed, walking asymmetry, resting heart rate, heart rate variability, active calories per day. All from iPhone + Apple Watch.
Add extra equipment and you easily add body fat percentage, blood pressure, and more.
Jan 9, 2020 • 16 tweets • 6 min read
This is phenomenally good! Lots of people think environmental review protects the environment because it has the word “environmental” in it. But it’s purely a procedural requirement with zero substantive protection. All it does is delay stuff. A+ nytimes.com/2020/01/09/cli…
Want to build a new high-speed rail or hyperloop project? Well, it will take DOT 6 years to process your environmental review. If you make any design changes during that time, you have to start over.
Dec 18, 2019 • 20 tweets • 5 min read
I'm pleased to be cited in @DKThomp's new feature on the continuing stagnation in the physical world. Derek and I have ruffled some feathers so let me elaborate and possibly ruffle a few more. 🧵 theatlantic.com/magazine/archi…
First, it is obvious that the Internet has underperformed expectations if you will actually recall what the expectations were. It was supposed to be, in Barlow's words, "the new home of Mind," immune to government sovereignty. eff.org/cyberspace-ind…
Nov 12, 2019 • 11 tweets • 3 min read
This is a fascinating working paper by Taylor Jaworski and coauthors about the Interstate Highway System. eh.net/eha/wp-content… Get ready for a few facts and findings.
The Interstate Highway System is composed of almost 50,000 miles of highway, made with over 1.5 billion tons of aggregate and 35 million tons of asphalt, and 48 million tons of cement, built since 1956.
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